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Why we shouldn't take a WR in the 1st round

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Smart***Titan, Mar 20, 2007.

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  1. Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    Tez, I'm right there with you. What I've been trying to explain is that a few of these guys that a lot of posters have said are future Pro bowl guys are going to be total busts. Now if I knew which ones, I could probably be a NFL GM, obviously I'm just a guy who is bored at work and throwing in my two cents. Right now the Titans need a sure fire thing with their first rounder, (really with at least 3-4 picks this year) WR is just too dicey of a position after CJ to be able to tell who is going to be a bust and who is going to be a solid player. Why wrap up so much money on a guy who is at best a 50/50? We have a lot of holes to fill, and I guarantee that a top flight guy on defense is going to fall to us. There will be a guy for us in the 2nd round if we want to go WR, and if we really like a guy we can even move up in the 2nd to get him. Look at the financial difference between the 19th pick and even the 1st pick in the 2nd round. It is substantial.
    #31
  2. Fry Hatin' is what I do.

    Casey
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    you do that every year. i will go back from 2000-2004 at some point over the weekend when i have some time and do it, but every position is just about a 50/50 shot.
  3. Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    WR is at best a 50/50. As Pasquarelli pointed out from '97 to '03 there were 27 1st rounders, it's too soon to accurately say anything about '04 and sooner, only 4 Pro bowlers out of 27 players. 14 out of 27 not even in the league anymore. 9 not with the team who drafted them. WR is one of a hand full of positions, I think CB and QB are the others, where guys either have to be high quality players or they are just depth. I mean we're not talking about 50/50 for 1st round WR's who are either pro bowl guys or not, we're talking about 14 out of 27 (worse than 50/50 odds) who are not in the league anymore. Show me another position that more than half the guys drafted in the first round didn't even make it to their 2nd contract. Sure there are other positions where guys didn't live up to their "first round billing", but those guys are typically at least 2nd stringers and quality backups.

    As I've said, we may go with a WR, and he may work out. (PLEASE let him be good!!!) However, I think we are better suited to take a big time defensive player and go for WR's later in the draft (Yes I agree we need to address the WR position). We won't really know how the draft will flow until next month, but I really do believe that a top tier defensive guy will be there at #19.
  4. Fry Hatin' is what I do.

    Casey
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    so we shouldnt have tied up a bunch of money in VY or pacman either, i take it?
  5. titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    Houshmanzadeh, Jackson, or Coles are not 1st or 2nd round picks...
  6. Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    Exactly, we've gambled on difficult to draft positions the last two years and it has sort of paid off depending on your view of pacman's off field adventures. Why press the luck? Of course you could always take the spin of "if we get a high quality WR then we've really made it", but I prefer we take the safer route, draft the best player we can and go for it. Just my opinion. As I've said in other posts, if the draft falls poorly for us as far as defense goes and we have a WR ranked head and shoulders above every other position, then go for it.

    The draft is a crapshoot. We've done well the past two years and are on the verge of being back in the playoffs, we still have a lot of needs at several positions, what's so bad about playing it safe and improving our team at the same time?
  7. Tez Camp Fodder

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    But why should we limit it to 1st and 2nd round picks? We may very well wait until round 3 for a WR - Where Coles, Jackson, and Steve Smith (How did I miss him?) were drafted

    So, 3 1st Rd. WRs available at the 19th pick have been successful and 6 2nd/3rd rounders past our 2nd rd. draft position have been successful.

    percentages are 6/20 (30%) for 2nd round available players and 3/22 (13.6%) for 1st rounders from your sample pool.

    Randel El, Antonio Bryant, N Burleson, K Curtis, K Washington all servicable but not great as 2nd-3rd rounders and Housh as a great late rounder

    So there are twice as many great WRs despite being 2nd and 3rd round picks.

    But we can throw in from 1997-1999 to widen the sample pool:

    1st Rd. draftable WRs:
    Rae Carruth
    Joey Kent
    K Lockett
    Randy Moss
    Marcus Nash
    Jerome Pathon
    Jacquez Green
    Pat Johnson
    Kevin Johnson

    Or 1st round picks overall (the aforementioned +):
    Ike Hilliard
    Yatil Green
    R. Anthony
    K Dyson
    Torry Holt
    David Boston
    Troy Edwards

    - a few

    Vs. The additions of

    D Mase
    Joe Jurvivicius
    Hines Ward (very productive 3rd rounder)
    Az Hakim
    Peerless Price
    Marty Booker
    Donald Driver (great late rounder)

    So, that makes for a total of 4 great WRs in a 1st round draftable position for the titans and 7 great WRs (along with some solid WRs) from a draftable 2nd round position from 1997-2004.
  8. DCtitan49 Guest

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    so your saying instead of drafting a WR in the 1st - 2nd rounds we should wait til day 2 and try our luck theyre? i think its to risky considering our WR need is in desperation mode.
  9. Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    The problem with the analysis that the first round is the best place to take a receiver because the odds of getting a good one is better is that the odds of getting a good player at any position is far greater in the first round. Comparatively, the odds at WR are probably a little lower (although I would bet this is only miniscule taken over a sufficiently long period of time) than some other positions, but I don't see why such a small difference should affect our draft strategy. The 19th pick won't make that much money, so that argument is out the window. If WR is the BPA, there is no reason to hesitate.
  10. Tez Camp Fodder

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    With the exception of Driver and Housh (whom I didn't include in the percentages and stats) all of those WRs were first day WRs.
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