Who's the "safe" pick of the Top 5 ?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Puck, Jan 25, 2006.

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Who will be the safest pick ?

  1. Reggie Bush

    4 vote(s)
    12.5%
  2. Matt Leinart

    1 vote(s)
    3.1%
  3. Vince Young

    2 vote(s)
    6.3%
  4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson

    22 vote(s)
    68.8%
  5. A.J. Hawk

    3 vote(s)
    9.4%
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  1. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    Like getting a bust at 3 is so much better than getting one at 1?
    QB has been one of the most difficult postions to predict. Here is a link to a good article on the subject even though it is a 2001 article.
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/statitudes/news/2001/04/12/firstround_qbs/

    Winning the big game is way overblown in college as well. How many college QBs even have a shot at the big game? Heck Volek could have won the big game if he played at USC. Look at all the college QBs that won big games as well as Heisman awards and never amounted to anything.
    Didn't Miami win a championship with the great Dorsey at QB when Dorsey threw for 362 yards against Nebraska? The logic of giving too much emphasis on winning the big game is shown in even mentioning Eli Manning as one who never won the big game. Eli Manning is a poster child of how you can be a great college QB and because of the team you play on not have a shot at the big game. Manning's stats his senior year were 253-of-400, 3,340 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs. He could be twice as good as Leinert for all we know.
    #31
  2. Haynesworth92

    Haynesworth92 Fat Albert

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    I picked Ferguson, but remember Robert Gallery 2 years ago, everyone thought he was a guarantee Prow Bowl LT, and right now he's played basically average at RT for the Raiders. No one is a sure thing, but I think he is probably the surest out of the 5.
    #32
  3. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    I'm just saying if the Titans take one of these at #3, they'd be getting #1 talent. I try to look at the glass as half full.

    And be sure to look at the team who made the pick. Many times, they were not the best front offices in the league for a reason.

    Then what criteria makes a QB in your book? I think you have to look at the total picture. Arm strength, leadership, making good decisions, etc.

    I'm not a fan of evaluating QB talent based solely on arm strength.

    And he was taken #1 in the draft for that reason.

    All I am saying is that I feel both Young and Leinart are #1 talent and about as good a risk of taking a QB as you get in this league. What makes it better is we get it with the third pick.
    #33
  4. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    If the OL for the Bengals had made a block on the guy (I forget their names, but it's really not important) that just tore Carson Palmer's knee, they wouldn't be facing the prospect of perhaps losing one the top 5 young qb's of all time right now. But he did miss the block and now they are facing that prospect. So how is OL not an impact position ?
    #34
  5. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    No one is saying LT is not an impact position. But when you look at the overall impact of a player on a team's success, it's hard to argue any position is more important than the QB.

    I think this can over inflate the value of QBs in the draft.

    Also, remember that the NFL is a business. How much star power does a QB have over a LT? Yes, that does come into play whether or not an owner wants to admit it.
    #35
  6. Puck

    Puck Pro Bowler

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    and I'm not a fan of evaluating QB talent based solely on the winning percentage of his team during his tenure - unless he was directly influential in those wins.

    I believe that Vince was more responsible in Texan wins than Leinart was for USC wins.
    #36
  7. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    In the end, winning games sells WAY more tickets than the short term playoff of making a crowd-pleasing pick. I don't think any smart FO would make a decision to appease the masses (who usually don't know what it takes to win football games).
    #37
  8. VolnTitan

    VolnTitan Starter

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    Bottom line, Young, Leinhart, Bush, even Ferguson, we will be getting a player that NO one can say was a reach or a bad value. There is no such thing as a lock in the draft. Doesn't happen. Period. Of course, if we draft the second coming of JC, you still will have someone say "yeah, he can walk on water, but can he throw it 60 yards?"
    #38
  9. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    With all things being equal, you take the player who is going to put butts in the seats.
    #39
  10. Broken Record

    Broken Record Biscuit Eater Staff

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    I hear he can rocket it about 85 yards, but his accuracy drops off some on throws over 70. The big knock is that he doesn't really have any wheels. Mobility is a big question mark. On the other hand, his wonderlic scores were phenomenal.
    #40
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