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Interesting Fact: Drafting QB's after Day 1 is a blatant waste of a pick

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by TheSureThing, Jan 7, 2011.

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  1. TheSureThing DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL

    C. Johnson
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    If were going to take a QB this year or next, It had better be in the 1st round. The stats are appauling on how little 2nd+ rounders actually pan out. Take a look at this list of QB's drafted from 2006-2009 (jury still out on the 2010 class) in the 2nd round or later...

    Kellen Clemens
    Tavaris Jackson
    Charlie Whitehurst
    Brodie Croyle
    Ingle Martin
    Omar Jacobs
    Reggie McNeal
    Bruce Gradkowski
    DJ Shockley
    Kevin Kolb
    John Beck
    Trent Edwards
    Isiah Stabeck
    Jeff Rowe
    Troy Smith
    Jordan Palmer
    Tyler Thigpen
    Brian Brohm
    Chad Henne
    Kevin O'Connell
    John David Booty
    Dennis Dixon
    Erik Ainge
    Colt Brennan
    Andre Woodson
    Matt Flynn
    Alex Brink
    Pat White
    Stephen McGee
    Rhett Bomar
    Nate Davis
    Tom Brandstater
    Mike Teel
    Keith Null
    Curtis Painter

    Not one of these QB's currently has a starting job. A few of them have even lost the only starting job they were annointed with, some of them have lost it twice, and some oft them aren't even in the league anymore.. The point is, they all suck.

    Pretty clear evidence that if your drafting a QB in the 2nd round or later it had better be to backup your allstar, because no question the QB's from the 06-09 draft classes taken in the later rounds are filling the backup roles across the league at this point.

    You don't draft a franchise QB in the 2nd round, period. Scouts and technology have gotten good enough to weed out the phenoms from the busts. You draft your franchise QB in the 1st round, because by the 2nd round he's already been picked.
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  2. steverife Starter

    Wright
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    1. A lot of those guys have seen some time as starter.

    2. First rounders in the same period include Vince Young, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brady Quinn.

    Not every quarterback pick is intended to be the franchise quarterback.
  3. TheSureThing DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL

    C. Johnson
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    1. Rusty Smith saw some time as starter. Everyone is going to get a chance once there ship goes south, thats the NFL. But ZERO of them stuck as even mediocre starters let alone franchise QB's.

    2. Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford..Point being, they hit more often that 2nd+ rounders (0%).

    So why are people suggesting we draft a QB like Pat Devlin or Scott Tolzien
    in the 4th/5th/6th round??? Are we drafting a backup to the starter we don't have yet?
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  4. steverife Starter

    Wright
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    I quickly looked at the top 30 passers this year and 13 were not 1st rounders. The list did not include Tony Romo.

    Drafted a bust in the first round, and there is a very fair chance that will happen, and it really sets your franchise back.

    I think this year's QB class is pretty shaky. I'd like to pick up a veteran, take Pat Devlin (if you can get him as a "value" pick") and see what happens.
  5. chamgel2 Special Teams Standout

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    I suggest we draft a QB like Pat Devlin or Andy Dalton in the 5th round or later because I do not believe there is a franchise QB in this draft, with Locker being the wild card depending on his Senior Bowl performance. If there is not a franchise QB then why draft a QB early just to draft one? Take a QB later, if he pans out and we catch lightning in a bottle, then great. If not then it doesn't hurt us and we can look at the two franchise QBs in next year's draft, Luck and Barkley.
  6. steverife Starter

    Wright
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    Exactly.

    Rusty Smith was a project. I see Devlin as a guy that, at worst case, is a dependable backup/spot starter for years to come.
  7. TheSureThing DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL

    C. Johnson
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    8 of the top 11 were 1st rounders.

    And the 3 that weren't (Brady, Cassell, Schaub) were all taken on or before the 2005 draft. Like I said, technology is better now. Scouts have made the combine a SCIENCE. You won't see as many late round bloomers as you did in the early decade. Look at the trend, is it coincidence the large sum of good QB's taken in later rounds in the early 2000's versus the whopping 0% in the later 2000's.

    I'll tell you what happens to Devlin, he'll end up on the list I posted, probably in the "never heard of him" category of that list for most sports fans.
  8. SawdustMan Starter

    Bishop
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    That's actually a very interesting list. A couple of things that make this not so clear cut in my mind though:

    1. There are only 32 starting QBs at any given time.
    2. You are pulling from a list over a period of only the last 4 years (excluding 2010).

    My point is that there could be some guys in there that simply haven't developed yet. Also what about guys like Schaub (3rd rd), Orton (4th), Cassel (7th), Romo (undrafted), Brees (2nd)? They would obliterate this theory if you hadn't made the cutoff date 2006.

    And what I mean by #1 is that starting QB jobs are hard to come by. You typically don't just get one handed to you unless you were a 1st round pick. And then you have vets like Favre who have been around forever taking up one of those 32 spots. There are plenty of good QBs out there who could potentially develop into franchise guys but simply haven't had that chance for whatever reason.


    Bottom line, I believe there's no rhyme or reason to finding a franchise QB. Luck (not Andrew) is a huge part of it. Sure 1st round guys usually have more potential right off the bat. But they're still no guarantee.
  9. chamgel2 Special Teams Standout

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    Noone has said Devlin will be great. We just said there wasn't a franchise QB in this draft. Why waste a first rounder pick on a QB if there isn't a top tier one available? This team has a lot of holes, why not take the best available throughout, taking a project QB later, building the team, instead of reaching for a QB with huge question marks and high bust potential?
  10. TheSureThing DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL

    C. Johnson
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    Good point.

    Of the list, only a hanful haven't gotten a chance to start yet. And half of that handful wasn't even good enough to keep a backup job and are now out of the league entirely. Do you think Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs, or Reggie McNeal are going to "develop" any time soon?

    The ones that have gotten chances, they have either stunk it up so bad they were benched, or they played so below average for so long they were eventually benched, then promoted to starter again, and then benched, again.

    Maybe none of them have had a chance to develope to their full potential yet. But Drew Brees and Matt Schaub didn't take long to develop, and Romo and Cassell didn't get a chance until a few seasons in, and once they did they held onto that job to this day. Not to mention, a lot has changed in the scouting process since 2005.
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