With the 11th pick the Titans ….

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by dtm586, Jan 8, 2023.

  1. The Hammer

    The Hammer Ace Degenerate

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    Gotta go guard
     
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  2. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Useless trivia knowledge champion

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    So much to unpack with this breakdown and with any additional context, it’s easy to see the a 1st round QB is no less a crap chute than every other position defeating the entire argument of chasing a QB in the 1st. Gonna be a long post.

    1st, we can list the QB (29 years is a weird mark to pick, but it moves Rypien and Hostettler of the list) but here they are anyway
    Stafford 1st
    Brady x 7 6th
    Mahomes 1st
    Foles 3rd
    Peyton Manning x2 1st
    Wilson 3rd
    Flacco 1st
    Eli x2 1st
    Rodgers 1st
    Brees technically 2nd but only 31 teams so I’ll agree 1st
    Big Ben x2 1st
    Brad Johnson 9th
    Dilfer 1st
    Warner UDFA
    Elway 1st
    Favre 2nd (sure again, 1st)
    Aikman x3 1st
    Steve Young 1st

    Next, did they win because they carried their team, the team that drafted them, and did they join an already competitive team?
    Stafford, hardly even changed Detroit. Took 3 years to reach playoffs them back to the bottom, 12 years later he goes to another team. Hard to argue that his first round pick status is relevant at all to his SB.
    Mahomes. Joined KC after back to back div losses, sat for another WC season, then played for conf and SB. Clearly worth the pick (#3 QB that year) and joined an excellent team.
    Foles replaced the 1st round pick Philly made. Much more of an Insult than not matching the first round pick theory.
    Peyton Manning. After crapping his first 5 playoff games, he got it done when he finally got a D. In 2015, he was the liability that could have prevented Denver from winning, easily the worst QB season to win a SB.
    Flacco- arguably the absolute best argument for pushing a 1st rd QB. Took a team that wasn’t in the playoffs 3/4 previous years and immediately went conf/ div/ div/ conf/ SB. The way 1st rd QBs are seen, this is the ideal argument. And it’s Joe Flacco.
    Eli - hard to argue he isn’t another excellent example. Hard to argue his D didn’t also help get the job done.
    Rodgers- clearly drafted to a good team, as soon as he gets a D, he wins, then spends the next 10 years as playoff loser.
    Brees- helped SD get over the hump. Or, was considered a wasted first round pick to the point SD replaced him with another 1st and he gets shipped to NO.
    Big Ben- first SB was nothing special from Ben, but another excellent example of a 1st paying off (seems #3 QB is a trend)
    Dilfer- he counts as a 1st for sure. If not for 2015 Manning, the worst QB to ever win. Not on his first team, replaced another 1st rounder on his second team. All kinds of examples towards not relying on a 1st RD QB, but his D helped defy logic.
    Elway- great choice despite horse face and a total B**ch when it came to his draft. Good case to be made about team, I think many could argue he knew he couldn’t succeed with the Colts.
    Favre- awesome pick, awesome QB, clearly Atl just didn’t have any patience, almost literally none.
    Aikman - helped turnaround one of the greatest dynasties.
    Steve Young- helped TB get Testaverde with another 1st 2 years later but also helped his USFL team before heading back to SF trying to remove the greatness monkey of Montana off his back. One of the best single season rosters of all time.

    Now to show the “other” firsts.
    22 Pickett - wait and see
    21 Lawrence - still has something to prove
    Zach Wilson - May have seen enough already
    Trey lance- wait and see, has to actually play maybe
    Mac Jones- on that fence already in NE about “is he the guy?”
    20 maybe the best QB class since 83. burrow/Tua/Herbert/ love is the oddball so far
    19 Murray - maybe ARZ is already moving on?
    Daniel Jones- 3 years of not being “the guy” actually looks the part now
    Haskins- clearly a terrible 1st round pick aside from the situation afterwards
    18 mayfield -3rd or 4th team already
    Darnold - same
    Josh Allen- nailed bun buffalo despite the doubts advertised year 1-2
    Rosen- bust entirely
    LJ- about to leave Baltimore but an MVP season and some playoffs, case can be made good pick (remember this is about SB win only)
    17 Trubisky - bust
    Mahomes - great pick on an already establish excellent team.
    Watson- worked for Houston but likes masseuses, kind of remains to be seen for the comeback
    16 Goff - lost SB but clearly good enough to win it. Not seen as an example for what you’re actually arguing despite being one.
    Wentz - bust and lost to a 3rd rounder that won the SB for him.
    Paxton Lynch- already forgotten
    15 Winston and MM8- nope and bad examples for your case
    14 bortles/manziel/bridgewater - nope and more proof you don’t chase QBs
    13 EJ Manuel - forgotten
    12 luck - good enough to get it done, joined an excellent team, quit/injured
    RG3 maybe injury ruined any chance to make your case, but it happens
    Tannehill- clearly not capable to some, capable to others, hasn’t gotten it done
    Weeden - early version of the GA QB
    11 Newton - soooo close but also not willing to get hurt to win the big game.
    Locker/ gabbert/ ponder - you don’t Chase 1st rd QBs
    10 Bradford - most money for a backup quality ever
    Tebow- shouldn’t have been a 1st anyway
    09 Stafford- didn’t help his team get it done- goes to the NFL’s closest comparison to the NBA super teams and barely wins in an ugly season
    Sanchez- has gotten closer than Lawrence at this point
    Freeman - yea, he played.
    08 matt ryan- soo close, laughed at now
    Flacco - ideal is sample of the “get your QB in the first and win the SB”
    07 jamarcus Russell/ Brady Quinn - yep that happens
    06 VY/Leinert/ Cutler - gotta get that 1st round QB
    05 Alex Smith - underrated but didn’t get it done.
    A-Aron- worth the 1st and show patience.
    Jason Campbell- yep
    04 Eli/ Rivers/ Big Ben- another 1983
    Losman- the Tony Eason of 1983
    03 Palmer - close, injury in CIN May have actually prevented their first SB
    Leftwich/ Boller/ grossman- arguably Grossman almost did what you chase 1st rd QBs for
    02 David Carr- destroyed, not entirely his fault
    Harrington/ Ramsey - yep
    01 Vick - exciting but not a SB capable QB
    Brees- read above

    Not going further but outside Peyton, McNabb, and Bledsoe nothing to speak of back to 1992 (30 years)

    Next, of the 1st round QBs that seem to have paid off, how many are on teams that tried multiple times in a row with nothing but failure
    Jax - before Lawrence, Leftwich, Gabbert, and Bortles. Keep chasing that QB. Might be 20 years of crap (ok 2-3 of pretty good over that time) but that’s also how you get your name on the “move to London” list
    Jets - Sanchez, darnold, Wilson, going back all the way to Pennington. Still haven’t figured it out.
    Cardinals - Leinert, Rosen, Murray
    TB - Dilfer, Freeman, Winston , ultimately done with vets from other teams
    Browns - too many
    Bears- trubisky, Grossman, McNown
    Vikings- culpepper, ponder, bridgewater
    Bills - losman, EJ Manuel, Tried Rosen from ARZ, landed Josh Allen
    Wash - shuler, Ramsey, Campbell, RG3, Haskins,
    Titans - VY, Locker, MM8
    Broncos - Cutler, Tebow, Lynch
    Not an all exclusive list, just the teams that reset their franchise multiple times over trying to get a QB in the first.

    Soooo many years throwing first round QB out there to just set the team back for another go around a couple years later.

    Aside from all of this, it still leaves the argument regarding SB losing teams and conference championship losing teams. If teams are getting that far, they were capable of winning it all. Good teams beat good teams every year and only 1 gets to hold the trophy.
    But even without that added, this is plenty of reason to NOT just get a QB in the first because QB. It also shows that even the best 1st round selections need a team around them. Titans don’t have a team around a QB right now. Could be fixed in FA before the draft, but then what is the cost to get a QB worth taking in the 1st.
     
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  3. VondyP

    VondyP Undisputed 2QBeaver Champion

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    im not reading that. the team needs to move on from tanne and qbs that win superbowls go in the 1st. debate with the stats.
     
  4. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Useless trivia knowledge champion

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    QBs that don’t work from the first keep your team in perennial early draft pick mode, get a team, then worry about putting a QB in place.

    Completely not necessary to get one in the draft at all.
     
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  5. Ontario Titan

    Ontario Titan Pro Bowler

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    Holy f*ck long post...longest I've seen since Mike's breakdown....I'll wait for the movie
     
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  6. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Useless trivia knowledge champion

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    Statements are thrown out that have way too many attaching details to summarize it shortly.
     
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  7. Chronos

    Chronos Pro Bowler

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    You get the endurance award for this post.
     
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  8. Chronos

    Chronos Pro Bowler

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    Also QBs in the 3rd round, 6th round, 7th round, FA. That’s Montana, Foles, Theismann, Rypien, Brady, Warner, and of course Staubach and Star would went in the 10th and 17th rounds back in the day. Does not have to be a first rounder. All QBs regardless of rounds are crapshoots and some are just crap who should be shot.

    EDIT: Also Farve in the 2nd.
     
  9. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Useless trivia knowledge champion

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    It didn’t take as long as the post length suggest it would have.

    It’s putting context with statements that would likely change how people look at the short statement with no context.
     
  10. VondyP

    VondyP Undisputed 2QBeaver Champion

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    i didnt say they NEVER come from other rounds, my point was that they come from the 1st round OVERWHELMINGLY. let's play the odds here not pretend we are somehow better at picking out late round QBs than others. because we aren't.
     
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