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Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by dtm586, Jan 8, 2023.
Gotta go guard
So much to unpack with this breakdown and with any additional context, it’s easy to see the a 1st round QB is no less a crap chute than every other position defeating the entire argument of chasing a QB in the 1st. Gonna be a long post.
1st, we can list the QB (29 years is a weird mark to pick, but it moves Rypien and Hostettler of the list) but here they are anyway
Brady x 7 6th
Peyton Manning x2 1st
Eli x2 1st
Brees technically 2nd but only 31 teams so I’ll agree 1st
Big Ben x2 1st
Brad Johnson 9th
Favre 2nd (sure again, 1st)
Aikman x3 1st
Steve Young 1st
Next, did they win because they carried their team, the team that drafted them, and did they join an already competitive team?
Stafford, hardly even changed Detroit. Took 3 years to reach playoffs them back to the bottom, 12 years later he goes to another team. Hard to argue that his first round pick status is relevant at all to his SB.
Mahomes. Joined KC after back to back div losses, sat for another WC season, then played for conf and SB. Clearly worth the pick (#3 QB that year) and joined an excellent team.
Foles replaced the 1st round pick Philly made. Much more of an Insult than not matching the first round pick theory.
Peyton Manning. After crapping his first 5 playoff games, he got it done when he finally got a D. In 2015, he was the liability that could have prevented Denver from winning, easily the worst QB season to win a SB.
Flacco- arguably the absolute best argument for pushing a 1st rd QB. Took a team that wasn’t in the playoffs 3/4 previous years and immediately went conf/ div/ div/ conf/ SB. The way 1st rd QBs are seen, this is the ideal argument. And it’s Joe Flacco.
Eli - hard to argue he isn’t another excellent example. Hard to argue his D didn’t also help get the job done.
Rodgers- clearly drafted to a good team, as soon as he gets a D, he wins, then spends the next 10 years as playoff loser.
Brees- helped SD get over the hump. Or, was considered a wasted first round pick to the point SD replaced him with another 1st and he gets shipped to NO.
Big Ben- first SB was nothing special from Ben, but another excellent example of a 1st paying off (seems #3 QB is a trend)
Dilfer- he counts as a 1st for sure. If not for 2015 Manning, the worst QB to ever win. Not on his first team, replaced another 1st rounder on his second team. All kinds of examples towards not relying on a 1st RD QB, but his D helped defy logic.
Elway- great choice despite horse face and a total B**ch when it came to his draft. Good case to be made about team, I think many could argue he knew he couldn’t succeed with the Colts.
Favre- awesome pick, awesome QB, clearly Atl just didn’t have any patience, almost literally none.
Aikman - helped turnaround one of the greatest dynasties.
Steve Young- helped TB get Testaverde with another 1st 2 years later but also helped his USFL team before heading back to SF trying to remove the greatness monkey of Montana off his back. One of the best single season rosters of all time.
Now to show the “other” firsts.
22 Pickett - wait and see
21 Lawrence - still has something to prove
Zach Wilson - May have seen enough already
Trey lance- wait and see, has to actually play maybe
Mac Jones- on that fence already in NE about “is he the guy?”
20 maybe the best QB class since 83. burrow/Tua/Herbert/ love is the oddball so far
19 Murray - maybe ARZ is already moving on?
Daniel Jones- 3 years of not being “the guy” actually looks the part now
Haskins- clearly a terrible 1st round pick aside from the situation afterwards
18 mayfield -3rd or 4th team already
Darnold - same
Josh Allen- nailed bun buffalo despite the doubts advertised year 1-2
Rosen- bust entirely
LJ- about to leave Baltimore but an MVP season and some playoffs, case can be made good pick (remember this is about SB win only)
17 Trubisky - bust
Mahomes - great pick on an already establish excellent team.
Watson- worked for Houston but likes masseuses, kind of remains to be seen for the comeback
16 Goff - lost SB but clearly good enough to win it. Not seen as an example for what you’re actually arguing despite being one.
Wentz - bust and lost to a 3rd rounder that won the SB for him.
Paxton Lynch- already forgotten
15 Winston and MM8- nope and bad examples for your case
14 bortles/manziel/bridgewater - nope and more proof you don’t chase QBs
13 EJ Manuel - forgotten
12 luck - good enough to get it done, joined an excellent team, quit/injured
RG3 maybe injury ruined any chance to make your case, but it happens
Tannehill- clearly not capable to some, capable to others, hasn’t gotten it done
Weeden - early version of the GA QB
11 Newton - soooo close but also not willing to get hurt to win the big game.
Locker/ gabbert/ ponder - you don’t Chase 1st rd QBs
10 Bradford - most money for a backup quality ever
Tebow- shouldn’t have been a 1st anyway
09 Stafford- didn’t help his team get it done- goes to the NFL’s closest comparison to the NBA super teams and barely wins in an ugly season
Sanchez- has gotten closer than Lawrence at this point
Freeman - yea, he played.
08 matt ryan- soo close, laughed at now
Flacco - ideal is sample of the “get your QB in the first and win the SB”
07 jamarcus Russell/ Brady Quinn - yep that happens
06 VY/Leinert/ Cutler - gotta get that 1st round QB
05 Alex Smith - underrated but didn’t get it done.
A-Aron- worth the 1st and show patience.
Jason Campbell- yep
04 Eli/ Rivers/ Big Ben- another 1983
Losman- the Tony Eason of 1983
03 Palmer - close, injury in CIN May have actually prevented their first SB
Leftwich/ Boller/ grossman- arguably Grossman almost did what you chase 1st rd QBs for
02 David Carr- destroyed, not entirely his fault
Harrington/ Ramsey - yep
01 Vick - exciting but not a SB capable QB
Brees- read above
Not going further but outside Peyton, McNabb, and Bledsoe nothing to speak of back to 1992 (30 years)
Next, of the 1st round QBs that seem to have paid off, how many are on teams that tried multiple times in a row with nothing but failure
Jax - before Lawrence, Leftwich, Gabbert, and Bortles. Keep chasing that QB. Might be 20 years of crap (ok 2-3 of pretty good over that time) but that’s also how you get your name on the “move to London” list
Jets - Sanchez, darnold, Wilson, going back all the way to Pennington. Still haven’t figured it out.
Cardinals - Leinert, Rosen, Murray
TB - Dilfer, Freeman, Winston , ultimately done with vets from other teams
Browns - too many
Bears- trubisky, Grossman, McNown
Vikings- culpepper, ponder, bridgewater
Bills - losman, EJ Manuel, Tried Rosen from ARZ, landed Josh Allen
Wash - shuler, Ramsey, Campbell, RG3, Haskins,
Titans - VY, Locker, MM8
Broncos - Cutler, Tebow, Lynch
Not an all exclusive list, just the teams that reset their franchise multiple times over trying to get a QB in the first.
Soooo many years throwing first round QB out there to just set the team back for another go around a couple years later.
Aside from all of this, it still leaves the argument regarding SB losing teams and conference championship losing teams. If teams are getting that far, they were capable of winning it all. Good teams beat good teams every year and only 1 gets to hold the trophy.
But even without that added, this is plenty of reason to NOT just get a QB in the first because QB. It also shows that even the best 1st round selections need a team around them. Titans don’t have a team around a QB right now. Could be fixed in FA before the draft, but then what is the cost to get a QB worth taking in the 1st.
im not reading that. the team needs to move on from tanne and qbs that win superbowls go in the 1st. debate with the stats.
QBs that don’t work from the first keep your team in perennial early draft pick mode, get a team, then worry about putting a QB in place.
Completely not necessary to get one in the draft at all.
Holy f*ck long post...longest I've seen since Mike's breakdown....I'll wait for the movie
Statements are thrown out that have way too many attaching details to summarize it shortly.
You get the endurance award for this post.
Also QBs in the 3rd round, 6th round, 7th round, FA. That’s Montana, Foles, Theismann, Rypien, Brady, Warner, and of course Staubach and Star would went in the 10th and 17th rounds back in the day. Does not have to be a first rounder. All QBs regardless of rounds are crapshoots and some are just crap who should be shot.
EDIT: Also Farve in the 2nd.
It didn’t take as long as the post length suggest it would have.
It’s putting context with statements that would likely change how people look at the short statement with no context.
i didnt say they NEVER come from other rounds, my point was that they come from the 1st round OVERWHELMINGLY. let's play the odds here not pretend we are somehow better at picking out late round QBs than others. because we aren't.