Why bring the ball out of the end zone on KOR

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Titans2004, Sep 7, 2017.

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  1. meekmode

    meekmode Starter

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    I disagree, 1 return to the 50 could easily change the outcome of the game. Odds of getting to the 20-25 are quite high for a return man. The odds for a return to the 40-50+ are 0% when taking a knee. Touchdowns are unlikely but big returns with someone talented change football games.
     
  2. Johnnyb

    Johnnyb RTR

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    Please read:

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/06/nfl-playoffs-2017-touchback-rule-change-impact
    Less than 30% of kicks brought back are making it to the 25. I'll take not sticking my offense in a hole over MAYBE getting back to the 25. Sure there's a few instances where you can bring it out, like if you're down and it's late and you need a miracle. But otherwise, forget it.

    TL;DR - take a knee.
     
  3. meekmode

    meekmode Starter

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    yeah thats pretty bad percentage to get to the 25.

    60% still get to the 20, Idk the data backs it up but it doesn't take into account how deep into the end zone a lot of those kicks taken out were. If it's deep in the end zone I'm all for kneeing it but if it's not deep I'd still roll the dice now and then for a chance at decent return with a high chance to get to at least the 20 with a solid special teams unit.
     
  4. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    The one thing you're missing is the IMPACT of the returns that make it past the 25yd line vs the impact of not reaching the 25. I haven't delved into these stats but this would be what a coach would want to know. What is my chance of scoring points from the 25 (on a tb) vs my chances on kicks brought out...say the avg starting field position for kicks that don't get to the 25, plus the chance of scoring for kicks that do get past. You can figure it out mathematically.

    However, it's not just math. Obviously different teams special teams units are of different qualities and the difference in returners can be quite big which skew the math for each team. Some should always kneel if given the chance while others should probably take it out more depending on a variety of other factors.

    There are some HS teams that always onside kick kickoffs (or maybe 50-90%) and almost always go for it on 4th down. There OWN metrics show it as a positive strategy for THEIR team.

    I would not want Weems to take it out unless we thought we could really block the other team (haven't we invested a ton in our special teams this off-season?).

    If we were down late in a game and the offense was struggling, then you put Jackson back there and let him take a shot. So game time factors and situations also play a major role in this so it'll never be simply cut and dry.
     
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  5. Johnnyb

    Johnnyb RTR

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    Funny how this exact situation happened yesterday. We were down late, Jackson brought it out, got a good return, and gave us a spark. That is one of the very few situations where I believe you can bring it out with an electric returner like Jackson.

    My point was that in most situations, it should be knelt. There are always exceptions to the rule though.
     
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