Titans schedule 2 workouts with Jake Locker

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by TorontoTitanFan, Mar 15, 2011.

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  1. RavensShallBurn

    RavensShallBurn Ruck the Favens

    xpmar, how the hell is Mallett going to fall all the way to us in the second round?

    Hell, I'd be surprised if the Colts or Pats passed on him. Sure, they have two of the best QBs in the league, but age is an issue. 3-4 years from now both teams will need a QB.
  2. TorontoTitanFan

    TorontoTitanFan Pro Bowler

    My mistake on Freeman. Forgot that he topped 60% two years before he was drafted. Still think he's a decent comparison, though.

    Locker had so many passes dropped and faced so much pressure (check out the number of times he was sacked compared to everyone else) that I'm not sure it's entirely fair to blame him alone for his low completion percentage.
  3. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler


    Really? Who would you blame? And how many passes were dropped? Do we have a number?

    And frankly, while you want to blame the OL and his WR's, how'd he do during Senior Bowl week with an excellent OL and excellent WR's? Let me give you a hint...inconsistent. Sound familiar?

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  4. HeadOnASwivel

    HeadOnASwivel Starter

    If we take Locker at eight, I'm gonna punch my wall! Wanna trade down some and draft him later in round one fine, but 8th overall is just way too high for him sorry.
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  5. ScotTitan

    ScotTitan Starter

    Taken from another website. Not sure how accurate the figures are but check it out. 2010 stats (sans Bowl game and injured Oregon game):

    Completed Passes: 184
    Attempted Passes: 332
    Completion % : 55.4%
    Passes per game : ~28

    God-awful. Totally undeserving of a first round pick, right? Completion % is hands down his biggest knock.

    What if he had a 63% completion rating? First overall pick? Maybe, maybe not, but definitely top 15, right?

    Well, let's break that down.

    That ~8 percent differential breaks down to this. If Locker had completed 24 more passes in the 11 game sample this was taken from, it would reach 63%. That's 2 more completed passes a game, of which he averaged 28.7 attempts a game. That means that if he completed one extra pass out of every ~14 throws per game, he'd be going from his SKY IS FALLING status into legit, franchise quarterback discussion. He'd be getting Matt Ryan hype.

    That's taking INTO account the horrible performance he had against Nebraska where he only completed four passes. But he only completed 4 passes that game?!?! out of 20?!?! That's pitiful. Yes, I agree. It's also not a fluke against Nebraska for a QB to get wrecked by their defense. They dominated almost every passer they faced this season. Yet still, those numbers count for this example.

    Even with that jaw-droppingly horrible outing he had against a dominate defense, if he could have managed to complete just one more pass for every 14 attempts, he'd be in conversation for being the most "can't miss" QB prospect in this draft class.

    With having 40 of his passes dropped this year.

    Andrew Luck had 17 passes dropped this year. That's over a 2x drop rate of an elite quarterback prospect. Just for humors sake. Let's pretend Locker only had 17 drops. That means that he'd have 23 more completions this season. The number I stated above, to put him "elite prospect" category was 24 more completed passes. Seeing a trend here? Keep in mind, that's with the good ol' 4 for 20 still hanging over his head.

    In addition to his Oline.
    Who allowed 19 sacks his final year.
    Luck's Oline allowed 6. That's over 3x.
    Granted, Luck was an EXTREME low-mark, sack-wise, and most other QB's were between the 15-20 range, but it is a very telling stat here. What if, of those 13 extra sacks, Locker had completed 55% (his current completion number) of his passes? That's 7 more completions.

    Added to the above stat for dropped passes, he'd have 30 more for the year. That would put him right at a 65% completion rating. With the atrocity of the game against Nebraska still on his record. That's well above any desirable completion percentage anyone would expect from a guy in his second year in Pro-Styled offense on one of the worst teams in a major conference.

    Coulda, woulda, shoulda. That's a lot of what if's, isn't it? Except it's not really. Locker is coming into the draft being graded on one thing, his completion numbers (or lack thereof). To not look at why his numbers aren't at the magical 60% measuring mark is potentially selling a franchise short. If Locker had gotten "Luck"y (see what I did there?) in his receivers pulling their weight, and his O-line doing a better job, we would be foaming at the mouth of taking him at 8. It simply wouldn't happen. We'd have to trade up to get him. Instead, people look at the little number on ESPN.com that says 55%, an "inaccurate" stigma is stamped on his head, and he's now been put under the same microscope that has made teams pass on guys like Brees and Rodgers only to regret it years later.
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  6. 24

    24 Starter

    ^I've read that, and I've posted about it before. Even taking that into account, scouting each pass independent of all the drops, he still struggles with accuracy. The fact is, he started for 4 years, and not once did he hit 60%. What indication is there that he'll do it in the NFL? The league is rife with players who failed to hit 60% in college, then continued to struggle with accuracy in the NFL (ex. Kyle Boller, JP Losman, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Patrick Ramsey, etc.). I'm sticking with history. That being said, I don't mind taking him in the second round. That way, we're not overly invested him just in case he doesn't pan out.
  7. Deuce Wayne

    Deuce Wayne Crap the booze out.


    I'm ok with Locker. I think I rated him 3rd, but not 1st round worthy IMO...
  8. GoT

    GoT Strength and Honor Tip Jar Donor

    certainly looks like an NFL QB
  9. xpmar9x

    xpmar9x The Real Slim Shady

    Just watch and see. A week ago there was only 2 QBs projected to go in the first round, now everyone thinks 5 QBs will go? I seriously doubt it. I still think only Newton, Gabbert, and Locker will go in the first. Mallett and Ponder will go in the 2nd.
  10. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

    If the Senior Bowl was typical of his abilities, he's horribly inaccurate. I don't buy into the "he's not familiar with the WRs" when he's missing wide-open guys by five yards on a 20-yard pass. These were not timing routes.

    He may have all the talent in the world but accuracy is the #1 necessity for a QB. Unless the Titans think they can "fix him", I don't see him being worth of #8.
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