Thoughts on rnd 1...and strategy

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Apr 25, 2009.

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  1. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

    I think the players the Titans should look to move up to get are Everett Brown, Jeremy Maclin, or Percy Harvin. In Browns case, I would be willing to move up to the early 20's and attempt to trade one of our trade bait players and a mid rnd pick (next yr if possible). If by some chance Maclin falls (say raiders take DHB and the next Wr's taken are Nicks, Robiskie) with the Colts coming up...I would leap over them to grab Maclin. He could provide instant value in the slot as WR and as a runner on end around as well as a top notch returner.

    Since Harvin failed his drug test, I would no longer trade up for him...but I'd take him at #30.

    The likely scenario is that Brown and Maclin are gone. Hopefully, a group of players is available at 30 that you like. Say 4 players rated about equally. What do you do? Trade down 5 spots and grab another mid rnd pick. It is likely the next 4 picks won't be those players since other teams have different positional needs. But even if the next 3 went in a row, you can use a later rnd pick and move back up a spot or 2 to get your 1 guy left. This is how to maxmize value...even if you dont get that great of a pick back to slide a bit. I know, someone will say you can't trade back into any slot you want. However, you can probably trade to somewhere close and there isa good chance you won't need to trade back up.

    Best case scenario is if someone is desperate for a certain player. Josh Freeman comes to mind since there is no other QB prospect near him in the draft...after Freeman ur probably looking at rnd 4 for the next QB at best.

    Let's use an example...suppose you have Robiskie, Britt, Harvin, Mack, Alphonso Smith, and Vontae Davis as equally rated players and you know someone wants to move up to get Freeman at #30. That's 7 players (6 on your board plus Freeman) so a drop of 10 spots will most likely see one or more of your players still available. Not only do you get a nice mid rnd pick...but you dont have to pay that pick as much money at #40 as at pick #30. U can also use that mid rnd pick to move higher back into rnd 2 or 3 or move around in the mid rnds to get targeted players.

    I think if the Titans use their first rnd pick on a WR, forget about Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin. If they DON'T take a closely at what the Cards do in rnd 1 - especially if they take a WR.

    Food for thought on trades of WR's. The Giants offered the Browns their 2nd and 5th rnd pick for Edwards. Mangini countered with wanting their 1st rnd pick PLUS Mathias Kiwanuka! The Giants said good bye. According to a source close to the Edwards...the Giants are no longer interested. However, I could see the Browns 'dropping' that to the Giants 1st rnd pick and think the Giants would do that. But I think that's dependant on whom the Browns take at 5 and IF there is a WR they want at the Giants pick.

    The Jets are focused more on moving up for Sanchez (possibly Crabtree, Raji or Orakpo/Brown). If they can't, I could see them dump a pick for an Edwards. I know they like Boldin, but don't see how he could fit in their cap space. They don't have that much room. Ryan did say that he thought you don't draft depth in rnd draft a starter...unless it's a QB.

    If I'm the Titans, I WOULD send a 2nd rnd pick and LW to get Boldin...IF...I could get Boldin for the money I want (7mil/yr) or the structure I want (5mil base with a very hard to earn 5mil in top 5 WR in yards and TD's, makes pro bowl, team goes to playoffs, team goes to SB, and team wins super bowl) for a possible 10mil per yr for 6 years and the guaranteed money (18mil) is broken up into payouts every few years (6mil bonus up front, 6mil in yr 3, and 6mil in yr 5) so I can cut him and not get killed if necessary and it's a tradeable contract. realistically, the Titan could get away with this if they knew they were cutting VY and gave up Mawae, Kearse, Crump and perhaps KVB after this season. While we have already drafted potential replacements for all of these players except for White, we will depend heavily on new talent starting in this scenario. Could it workout great? Sure. Could it really hurt us? Yes. It is a gamble, but his contract would be the most important part of the gamble. I would expect the Titans to pay more like 9mil/yr with a very large SB which would make the contract something you're married to.

    I think the Browns could give up Edwards for a 1st...and possibly a player but Edwards contract is much more manageable. He does drop the ball a lot but has shown he can be a dominant wr.

    I also wonder if the Titans could trade for a Kevin Curtis (if the Eagles get Boldin/Edwards) or Lee Evans (if THEY grab Boldin/Edwards) or Derrick Mason (if Ravens get...u get the idea). Might be able to give up a 3rd for a nice WR and we wouldn't be responsible for his SB affecting our cap.

    I hope the Titans draft Brown-DE, Maclin, Harvin, or Nicks-WR, Jerry or Jackson-DT, or Butler or ASmith at CB, or Alex Mack-OC/OG in rnd 1. If we trade down in rnd 1...I HOPE we trade back up using other picks to secure more 2nd or 3rd rnd talent. We don't WANT to end the draft with 10 players...5 of whom are in rnds 5-7. Think we could get 4 picks inside the top 75 picks. More if we trade players.

    I could see us trading LenDale White, Alge Crumpler, or Bo Scaife. Players I would consider trading (in addition to the above) would be Mawae and Kearse. Chris Henry would be a throw in...

    The Titans usual MO is to stay put or trade down in rnd 1, move around in rnds 3-5 to secure specific players they want and to grab a few late rnd picks (keep both 7th rndrs) for a specific player who dropped or OL/DL.

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  2. Blaize

    Blaize Camp Fodder

    Man good article, but I don't see the Titans trading any players and they may trade some mid round picks, but when pick #30 rolls around I'm expecting the Titans to pick.
  3. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

    that's where i stopped reading.
  4. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

    I don't touch Harvin in the first. I might not in the second.

    I personally think it's one of the weaker drafts so I would not be shocked to not see many teams trading to move up -- even for Sanchez. I do think we'll see a lot more on Day 2 when the Titans will hopefully package some picks to get some players they like.
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  5. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

    I would just sit tight and take Mack.
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