Smitty's Week Four Colt Preview

Smitty’s 2007 Colts Preview



Week Four




Denver Broncos (2-1) at Indianapolis Colts (3-0)​

Date & Time: Sunday, September 30, 2007 @ 4:15 pm est.
TV: CBS WISH-TV8 Local HD
Radio: WFBQ Q-95 (94.7 FM)
Where: RCA Dome,
100 South Capitol Ave.
Indianapolis, IN 46254
Capacity: 57,890
Surface: Field Turf
Odds: Colts -9.5 Over/Under 46
Last Meeting: Colts 34 @ Broncos 31 (10/29/2006)

Indianapolis will be seeking its 11th straight RCA Dome victory. A win over the Denver Broncos this week would tie the franchise record that was originally set during the 2004-2005 seasons. Our Colts have taken the early lead in the AFC South with consecutive road wins over division rivals, including a 22-20 victory at Tennessee on Sept. 16. They now return home, where they are 10-0 in the regular season since the start of last year and have won 21 of their last 22 games.

Series History: 17th meeting. Broncos lead in the regular-season series 11-5. But the Colts have won the last two postseason meetings. Indianapolis, though, has played the Broncos eight times in the last seven years. The Colts have captured five of the last seven meetings, including postseason games. In last year's game, which was played at Invesco Field in Denver, the Colts posted a 34-31 win. Indianapolis rallied from a 14-6 halftime deficit, scoring on each of five second-half possessions. The Colts are 5-5 against Denver in games played at the RCA Dome. Indianapolis, however, is 3-1 against the Broncos, including postseason games, at the RCA Dome since the 2002 season. The Colts won playoff games during the 2003 (41-10, 1/4/04) and the 2004 (49-24, 1/9/05) seasons over Denver at the RCA Dome. Dungy has a 5-2 coaching record against Denver (2-0 in the postseason) with the Colts and is 6-3 overall against the Broncos. Manning has a 3-2 career playing record against Denver.

Last Weeks Games: Last Sunday the Denver Bronco’s were knocked off 23-14 by the AFC South’s Jacksonville Jaguars. Denver quarterback Jay Cutler threw for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a losing effort. The stingy Jacksonville defense held running back Travis Henry to 35 yards rushing on eleven carries. Brandon Marshall led all Bronco receivers with 7 receptions good for 133 yards.
The Indianapolis Colts defeated their AFC South rival Houston Texans 30-24 at reliant stadium in Houston. Last season the Colts lost to every AFC South rival on the road. So with two of our three wins coming on the road versus AFC South teams is encouraging. Quarterback Peyton Manning was 20-of-29 for 273 yards and a touchdown. Joseph Addai had 22 carries for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. Reggie Wayne led Colt receivers with 84 yards. Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri added three field goals.

Broncos Keys for Success:

1. Jam the Colts' receivers: Denver cornerback Champ Bailey can handle any NFL receiver man-to-man. He has the strength to jam the Colts receiver tandem of Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne at the line and the speed to run with either. Opposite of Bailey, is Dre' Bly who is a two-time NFL Pro Bowl cornerback. Bly isn't the same caliber player as Bailey but likely will get safety help to minimize the risk of his getting beat downfield. Taking away Harrison and Wayne would force the Colts to run Joseph Addai more frequently or force Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning to hold the ball and look to secondary receivers.

2. Spread out Indy’s defense: Three and four-receiver sets will set up mismatches and open up passing windows for quarterback Jay Cutler against the Colts' cover 2 zone. New additions such as former Colt Brandon Stokley (slot receiver) and tight end Daniel Graham are smart route runners who know how to find soft spots in the middle of zone coverage. Stokley played for the Colts the previous four seasons and knows where to attack. The more success the Broncos have over the middle, the less strong safety Bob Sanders will be able to focus on stopping the run.

3. Double-team Dwight Freeney: Broncos left tackle Matt Lepsis will need help from tight end Daniel Graham or running back Travis Henry to stop Freeney, one of the league's most feared pass rushers. It is an especially big concern because Freeney will rush from Cutler's blind side, and Cutler could be slowed slightly by a sprained ankle he suffered in the game against the Jaguars. Freeney has the speed to get around the edge and agility to spin off blockers. He is terrific at slapping at the ball and causing fumbles. If left in isolation, Freeney could be a terror to the Broncos' game plan.

Colts Keys for Success:

1. Stuff the Denver Running Attack: The Colts should try to duplicate the Jacksonville Jaguars game plan from a week ago. Load up the box with eight defenders and force the Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler to win the game with his arm. In the Broncos' two wins, running back Travis Henry averaged 132.5 rushing yards. In last week's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, he was held to a meager 35 yards on 11 carries. The Colts would be wise to keep safety Bob Sanders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and let the linebackers play the run first.

2. Protect Peyton’s Backside: The Colts will probably have tight end Ben Utecht will need to help left tackle Tony Ugoh block the Broncos' Simeon Rice, running back Joseph Addai will need to stay in and help some in pass protection, as well. The Colts center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning must correctly read the Broncos' front and put their teammates in the best position to pick up the blitz. With more opportunities to throw against man-to-man coverage, time in the pocket will be critical to Manning's success. The receivers will need time to beat the press coverage, identify blitzing defenders, and adjust their routes. If given time, Manning will destroy their defense. If he is not given enough time he can be rattled.

3. Start fast: The Colts need to feed off the excitement of the home crowd and hit the Broncos early and often. Cutler never has played in a playoff-like atmosphere but is sure to feel the goose bumps Sunday. Indianapolis should be aggressive and proactive with it’s play-calling to attack Denver. Manning must challenge the Denver secondary, and the Colts' defense should attack the line of scrimmage and be physical. If Indianapolis puts up a couple of quick scores, Denver's confidence will be shaken.

Some Match-Ups to Watch:

The Colts Quarterback Peyton Manning vs. Denver’s Cornerback Champ Bailey: Arguably the NFL's best quarterback will be facing off against one of, if not the best cornerback in the NFL. A supreme meeting of the minds when Manning looks across the line of scrimmage to check where and how Bailey is setting up for work.

Broncos RB Travis Henry vs. Colts defense: Indianapolis currently ranks 14th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 95.7 yards per game. The Colts held Houston to just 40 yards on the ground last week. Henry, meanwhile, has rushed for 139 and 128 yards in wins over Buffalo and Oakland. He was held to 35 yards rushing last week in a loss to Jacksonville.

Colts Cornerbacks Jackson and Hayden vs. Broncos Wide Receivers Marshall and Walker: The Colts Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden have proved to be very tough against the run. But the Colts' two first-year starting cornerbacks have yet to face a passing attack with weapons like Denver's. Brandon Marshall, Javon Walker and slot receiver Brandon Stokley will be a good test for the Indianapolis Colts secondary.

My Take: Denver has been a bit of an enigma this season. Denver sits atop the AFC West standings at 2-1, however they were very lucky to escape with victories at Buffalo and versus Oakland and could just as easily be 0-3 right now. They were completely dominated last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars and now have to play in a tough environment versus a Colts team that has been on the road the past two weeks. Denver did not run the ball well last week and the Colts' front can present some problems versus Denver's offensive line because of its ability to play on the other side of the line of scrimmage. This is going to put a lot of pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler. Denver has the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL, but that ranking is deceiving more reflective of the teams they have played thus far. Indianapolis should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The Colts have dominated this matchup and that is not going to change this week as the Colts have way too much firepower for this defense. I like the Colts at home this week 34-10. Just for you Hoffa 0-4 !!! :moon2:

Smitty’s Prediction:

Colts 34 Broncos 10​

 

Like I mentioned last week I have Colts 4 opponents 0 on a board so I predict this each week...If I am right once it pays off.... and besides it gives Hoffa something to rag on !!! So Colts 34 Broncos 10 just for you Hoffa !!! :moon2: