Reaches?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, May 4, 2008.

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  1. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Commence Munching...

    The whole concept of a reach is silly the way most fans view it. No one can know where a player would have been taken if he wasn't taken where he was taken. No matter what's on anyone's draft board, not even the teams themselves always go highest rated player on their board. So saying a guy is a reach because no one would have taken him til rnd x is ludicrous. It's just as ludicrous to say no wr was worth a first rnd pick because no one took one in rnd one. No one took Glenn Dorsey with picks 1-4...so he would have been a reach if someone had taken him first overall since we now know he would fall to the 5th pick? No. He has the talent, production, physical skills, motor, character, blah blah blah to be worth the first pick in this draft. If he goes after pick one...it doesn't change his value...just means someone got a good deal getting a player with the value of a first pick but will only have to pay him 5th pick money.

    On a side note...What greatly amuses me are the people who explain away that the first 4 teams shouldn't have taken Dorsey (even though some of them had him as their BPA) by saying those teams had other more pressing needs but they defend our pick of a player who is NOT at a position of need as an excellent pick.

    Reach is based on where a player SHOULD go, not where he would have gone had xyz happened. If a player has the talent, physical skills, production, character, blah blah blah of a first rnd pick, he'll get rated as a first rnd pick. The hard cases are specialty players...players who do one thing and do it fantastically, but are limited. Is Chris Johnson limited to being a change of pace back (not a starter) who will get 10-15 touches and be a nice guy to have...or will he become a Tiki Barber with more speed? That is the problem and why people see him as anywhere from a rnd 1 player to a 3rd rnd player.

    The fact that he played for a smaller school against less than steller competition hurts his stock as well. But that is an indicator, not proof that he'll be good or not...but means he's more risk. And risk is what it's all about...risk vs upside. It's why we drafted a player like Tyrone Calico. Smaller school and less than steller production, but off the charts physical tools for a player his size and speed. How well did he do? Was he a reach at rnd 2? He had 1st rnd talent but his risk could drop him to rnd 3. The Titans seriously considered taking him in rnd 1.

    Other people will use another factor in determining 'reaches.' Playing time. Since we already have a fulltime starter at rb, how much impact is CJ gonna have? Again, will he be dominant with 15 touches a game, change the complexion of the offense and dictate to the defense and will he dominate as a returner? If yes, then he might be justifiable as a first rnd pick even with less playing time if he can really impact the game and the offense. But that's a lot of if's...again, more risk. If the Titans had taken a player such as DeSean Jackson in rnd 1 for example, he might also be a part time starter as a slot WR and returner, but the OC doesn't have to make up new plays to 'fit' him into the offense. So some 'experts' would be happier with a WR like that because again...less risk and certainly just as much upside.

    Players like CJ always have some who will have him rated as a 1st rndr (you can't teach speed) and others who will look at his competition, sub-200lb size, less than steller stats against some bad teams, didnt run cone or shuttles to test change of direction ability, ect and move him into rnd 3. Typically players like CJ go in rnds 2-3, but there are good and bad examples of similar players going in rnd 1.

    Hayes in the 4th rnd apparently has the speed and explosiveness of a Vernon Gholston. That kind of explosiveness is the difference between elite pass rushing potential and good pass rushing potential. Elite potential is usually only found in rnd 1 players except when there are red flags which can land candidates in rnds 2-7). But for the most part, you need serious character flaws or (more likely) serious size/speed flaws to drop as an elite rusher. You might find an elite rusher in rnd 6-7 but is only 230lbs and is too 'small' to play DE. Tell that to Robert Mathis. Normally, small school prospects of Hayes size/speed combo (assuming his speed is reported accurately) go anywhere from rnd 1-4. Hayes is only slightly undersized at 258lb (his weight at his pro day....despite his claim he's 272lbs). If his explosiveness and speed are accurate, then he's well worth a 4th rnd pick...and if he'd gone to a Major school...probably 3rd rnd or higher. Yes, he has increased risk due to school and competition, but his athleticism is well worth the risk for a 4th rnd pick. There aren't a ton of elite DE pass rushers drafted in rnd s 4+ who become much of anything. So he's a bit of a developmental prospect, but he could have first rnd ability. So again, who cares if 1 team or all teams had him on their draft board. Considering the Freak is kinda old and coming off injuries, a young developmental prospect like Hayes is hard to pass up and moving up (giving up a 5th we won't miss) to ensure we get him...makes all kinds of sense.

    Despite what you think of the Titans draft, one thing MR said should concern everyone. The Titans said they had more than 31 players rated as 1st rnd picks. I don't recall any other team ever claiming a draft had 31 players rated as first rnd picks, let alone having more than 31 players rated as first rndrs. In most drafts, teams usually rate 12-20 as 1st rndrs...not 35. This makes me think perhaps the Titans are over-valuing some players...or put another way...are more optomistic about how certain players will turn out. As I mentioned, most teams will view a 1 trick pony as anywhere from a 1st rndr to a 3rd rndr. Well, we are apparently viewing ALL those prospects as 1st rndrs...except the WR's as one prominent poster will tell us?

    I would like to see someone argue there are 35 first rnd prospects in this draft that are better than all the WR's....

    So if you consider an awesome 1 trick pony as a first rnd quality player, then you can't say CJ is a reach. If you feel his value makes him a 3rd rndr...then to you he is a reach. The fact that many NFL teams have the same player rated all over the place because of how they value certain traits/character/production/ect, doesn't mean you can't have your opinion. If NFL teams can differ on players from being worth a 3rd rnd pick to not even being on their draft board, should tell you that even the professionals have widely differing opinions...

    Time will tell how well CJ works out. If you look at Henry as an example, this CJ pick could be a bigger disaster waiting to happen. But if you look at how a Bryan Westbrook is used to cause havoc, this could be a great pick. Only time will tell...

    Gut
     
  2. KamikaZ

    KamikaZ Ex-Hall of Famer

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    Your posts are longer than some of my research papers...:ha:

    Good thoughts though, I always enjoy reading them Gut.
     
  3. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Hehehe...

    Glad you enjoy them.

    :)
     
  4. Soxcat

    Soxcat Pro Bowler

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    Maybe MR thought there were more than 31 players with
    "the talent, production, physical skills, motor, character, blah blah blah to be worth the first pick in this draft". Why should that "concern" you?

    Basically your rambling sounds like someone talking to themselves in the shower or something. By the way, there is no place a player "should" go. It is like the value of a house. What is it worth? What someone is willing to give for it. 3-4 years from now over 50% of the players taken in the first 4 rounds will have demonstrated that they were reaches because they will either be out of the league busts or at best roster depth that could have been had in the last three rounds. All this reach talk is total BS. There are a significant number of guys taken in the 1st round of this draft and in every draft who will fall far short of expectations that were not considered "reaches" when they were drafted and there will be 4th round or later guys who will out play guys drafted well in front of them who were probably never though of as great value.

    Oh, I know for absolute certainty that there was no WRs worthy of a first round pick in this draft. There were none taken, that is how. That is the only judge we have right now of a player's value. Later on we might find out that a few of those guys maybe should have been taken earlier but guess what? We will also find out that a few of them were taken too early as well. That is why I insist complainers about us not taking a WR tell all of us who we should have taken. Give us the specifics, names. Considering we could only take one who is THAT ONE we should have taken? Don't sit back and a few years from now point to a guy who happens to be a stud and then say, see I told you so. Hind sight is 20/20.
     
  5. wplatham

    wplatham U of M Class of 2012

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    I agree with everything you had to say, but I don't like this example. My problem with this example is you are talking about a guy (Dorsey) falling 4 spots (1st to 5th) and comparing it to other people falling out of a round.

    My problem with the whole reach argument is what people are looking at. Some people will say a guy had a first round rating, as if all first rounders are the same. Even if we have a RB, Johnson for example, and a WR, we'll use D. Thomas for example, rated as first rounders, that doesn't mean they are equal. We could've had Johnson ranked at #15 and Thomas at #32. Both are first rounders. Both fill the general need of offensive playmaker. Would you really take your 32nd highest player over your 15th highest player? Do you really lose 17 spots in value because of where he lines up on offense? I don't think so.
     
  6. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    Think the GMs who passed on Chad Johnson or T.O. in the first round still feel they were not worthy? Just because a WR wasn't taken in the first round doesn't mean a couple of them were not worthy. Only time will tell.

    Despite all the film, information, stats, etc. that's out there, the draft remains a guessing game.

    As fans, I think we tend to get hung up on round/pick too much in the draft as an indication of the value of a player selected. Often times, it's the position needed, overall positional depth, fit to a scheme, etc. that plays a role in how the draft selection goes.
     
  7. Soxcat

    Soxcat Pro Bowler

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    Time will tell is my whole point. I haven't looked but how may CBs were taken ahead of Finnegan that aren't the player he is?

    That is why I said all this "reach" stuff is BS. Nobody knows. The logic works both ways. Guys that look like aboslute hits that nobody would claim reach on end up being duds. Did the Bears reach when taking Cedric Benson so early? How about the Lions taking Mike Williams? Hmmmm, both those guys were guys Titans fans were wanting the Titans to pick and I doubt fans would be screaming reach on those guys. Actually for every Chad Johnson or TO who slipped past the first round there are many many more WRs who didn't get past the first round who can't carry those guys jocks.

    My point is there is no special place any player should go in the draft. You can determine after 3-4 years where they should have gone. I'm not saying there won't be a single WR taken in the 2nd round who won't prove the teams that passed them up wrong. Heck, there will possibly be WRs in any round that could do that. What I am saying is the current, draft time value can only be determined by where guys get drafted. Thus nobody knows who the "reaches" were; yet this is terminology used all the time by draftniks. The facts are that after it is all said and done there will be plenty of players who ended up being reaches simply because they never developed into the player the team picking them had hoped. Infact, I bet if you tagged all the guys who are so called "reaches" by these pin heads and tagged all the "great value" picks in the draft and followed just those guys over the next 3 years that there will be around the same % on each side that are successful in fullfilling their draf spot expectations and the same % who are duds.

    That is why when someone comments that the Titans should have taken a WR in the 1st round I insist they be specific on which one. We only hade one pick so if we went that route who should it have been. It isn't like we should give these "experts" a chance at playing the whole field. Maybe we should start a thread with a poll for all those unhappy with our draft so they can vote who we should have taken considering every WR was available.

    Then after a few years we can see how many picked a guy who is actually significantly better than Chris Johnson or for that matter Hawkins. My guess is a few will get lucky but most will quit thinking they are experts.
     
  8. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    But what fun is that? ;) Everyone wants to be able to judge a player based on where the are drafted because that is how the contracts are valued. It's clean and neat.

    Finnegan is a great example. He's making seventh-round money as a starter in the NFL. That's under $400,000 and probably ranks him close to being dead last on the 53-man roster. I think he got a bonus from the NFL after last season but it's insane that he's one of the lowest-paid guys on the team.

    I think there is a thread going already where people put up their drafts. But we'll probably forget about it in three years.
     
  9. Soxcat

    Soxcat Pro Bowler

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    That is a good point. All the "experts" three years from now when Hawkins is the next Chad Johnson and the guy they wish we had taken is a marginal NFL player will probably say "I told you Hawkins would be a good player and I knew that other guy was a bum".

    That is why I have no problem for a fan having an opinion. Just be specific enough in who we should have taken instead so there can be some accountability (even though we will forget) because what will happen is if just one of those guys we passed on becomes a real good player all the "experts" will be chirping "hey that is the guy I thought we should draft".

    By the way I was pushing for us to take Bowe last year, I really was, although I would have been happy if we took Meachum as well but I did have Bowe as my #1 choice of WRs we should take. Why didn't the top brass listen to me?
     
  10. Riverman

    Riverman That may be.... Tip Jar Donor

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    "Reach" is an intangible term that can be defined or proven anyway. Most posters refer in one of two ways:

    1. Player talent: aka BPA. Subjective on all levels. Even measurables are highly debatable when comparing. Can only be proven after years of league play.

    2. Team need: This one is more tangible because clearly if a GM knew what the other GM's were going to do- he could trade his pick number to maximally benefit the team and still fill the team needs. Trouble is- who knows what everybody else is going to truly do with their pick? That is why IMO there IS an element of skill in disguising your own intentions and correctly guessing other teams. That is the strategy part of the draft.

    So using the term reach based on either case is ill-defined and unprovable. But assessing draft "strategy" is completely reasonable IMO.
     
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