NFL MVP at Mid-season?

Huh? Because like 500 Rbs have rushed for over 1200 yards in their rookie years?

CJ is on pace for 1400 yards. Eddie george over 1200 yards, earl campbell. Marshall faulk, LT also over 1200 yards as rookies.

Curtis martin, barry sanders, jerome bettis over 1400 yards.


Backs don't need to learn how to run the football. If you are good you usually produce right away if you get the carries.

Why are we even having this discussion?

 

Your own research knocks you on your arse.

2 opponents who are top 10 in rushing titans and raiders.

41 carries-94 yards...2.29 yards per carry.


They did better against those 2 opponents than the rest of the league. Combined they still have not given up 100 yards!


So what tells you they will be different against any other team?

The only way to run the ball on them is to pass the ball with success first. Problem is when they are healthy they have one of the best defensive backfields in the league.

 

Ranking the defenses..

This is an extraordinary year for top defensive teams. Normally in the league there are maybe 2-3 championship caliber defenses. Sometimes only one. This year there are 4(titans-steelers-ravens-giants). In addition there are 4 very good defenses with solid numbers(Eagles-bucs-redskins-panthers).

So i set out to find a statistical way to rank these defenses to see how they compare with each other.

Each stat statistical category counts this way.

Total defense 25%

Scoring defense 25%

Rush defense 12.5%

Pass defense 12.5%

Ints 12.5%

Sacks 12.5%

It's not how the 8 teams rank overall but just in relation to each other. So the lowest ranked team in a category gets an 8 score where the top team gets a 1 and the middle team gets a 4. Get it? And then we divide al the scores based on weight and come up with a final average.

The results..

1.Steelers 2.125

2.Ravens 3.375

3.Giants 3.375

4.titans 3.875

5.Eagles 5.50

6.Redskins 5.625

7.Bucs 5.75

8.Panthers 6.5

Now before you jump on me and say how my methodology sucks it is the same for all of them. the steelers won out because except for one category ints, the steelers are at or near the top. The steelers are 1st in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, 3rd in run defense, 1st in pass defense and 1st in sacks.

The titans were 1st in scoring defense and ints and 4th in total defense but when you break it up we lost ground being only 10th against the run and 12th against the pass and 6th in sacks.


Disclaimer-this ranking system has nothing to do with emotion or partisanship. You can argue that scoring defense is worth more than 25% and that is fine but i would argue that 12.5% is not enough for run defense which is the supreme goal of any defense. I just used a balanced methodology. It just hapens that we have 3 other first rate defenses this year.

 

Ok how about this equation.

50% scoring defense

16.6% rush defense

16.6% sacks

16.6% ints


In that equation the titans would have a score of 2.00 and would come out on top vs the steelers who would be 2.25. The ravens would be 4th at 4.66.


I think next to scoring defense stopping the run is the #1 thing. Then turnovers.

 

Comparing the titans to past #1 defenses..

Top defense averages From 2001-2007.

Ave #1 team in total defense gave up 261 yards per game. To this point the titans give up 289 per. It was 265 before the packer game.

Ave #1 team in scoring defense gave up 224 points or 14 points per game. the titans to this point are pace to give up 206 points or just 12.9 per game.


So i would say we are solidly right up there with the best defenses in the last decade except for 2000 when both the titans and ravens had abnormally dominant stats.

 

Agreed, but i think the Titans need to do a better job on their run defense in the first half. IMO i think they let RB's gash them early which in return sets up the play action which is what teams have been doing. Now the Titans have been excellent as far as adjusting at half time but if they can limit those 6-10yards gains early they would have better success.

 

AH should have gotten it last year...However I think our Defense would do ok without him in the lineup. Of course our numbers wouldn' be nearly as good. However I think we are better everywhere this year and don't have to rely on the play of one man (AH). With that being said I believe he makes us an Elite D. With out him we would not get the same pressure. Therefore he one of the biggest reasons we are 8-0.

 

Putting all arguements aside as this got completely way off topic.....is there any reason if the Falcons stay on pace for what they are doing that Matt Ryan can be named as league MVP, not just rookie??

What he is doing with the Falcons is exceeding what Vince did his rookie year...I dont see why if the Falcons do get in the playoffs or by some miracle take over their division that Ryan cant win MVP. Sorry but Ryan's stats & wins far exceed the #'s Brees will put up or the yards Portis will have.

EDIT: How much of an impact has Roddy becoming a true WR helped Ryan's growth aslo is added into the equation....man I wish VY had someone like that to depend on in his rookie year.