Mariota's Ceiling Heading Into the Season

Completion percentage isn't the same as accuracy. 60% of Mariota's passes came within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage last year. That's why it's high. You claim to be an expert, you should understand that

 

Have you watched the pre-season games? There's more plays of questionable ball placement by Tannehill. It's not like he took the only example out of 50 throws!

But unlike some people, we aren't jumping to a crazy conclusion that Tannehill can no longer complete passes or can't be an accurate qb because of it. It's gonna happen to every QB in the league. Sometimes they misthrow it or misjudge where the wr will be and sometimes the wr isn't where he's supposed to be...and sometimes there's pressure and the qb is on the run or can't step into the throw or follow thru with his arm. This is the NFL. You're not gonna have a totally clean pocket all the time.

Drawing silly conclusions off a handful of plays is not a good idea. Drawing the incorrect conclusion off a stat is a worse idea.

You have done both.

 

He's an NFL QB. He's going to miss throws. But for the most part, he hasn't, and his completions have been accurate balls. There were a lot more balls thrown by Mariota which required awkward adjustments by the receiver. Walker reaching behind him while falling to the ground, Davis having to fall to the ground several times in order to make or attempt the catch, Humphries having to reach behind him, Lewis having to make a one handed grab. That's just off the top of my head. Tannehill has a bigger sample size, and you still couldn't find as many poorly placed balls.

 

Ah, so Mariota is ONLY accurate because he throws the ball within 5 yards of the LOS? Sounds reasonable if someone weren't able to...ya know...look it up!

So riddle me this (which you ignored in the last post). If Mariota is ONLY accurate because he got to throw the ball short so many times last year, why is his avg/attempt HIGHER than Tannehill's?

Why is his CAREER yards per attempt also HIGHER than Tannehill?

So I found the perfect article for you to read since you're a fan of ACCURACY over COMPLETION %!!! Take a read of this article about deep ball throwing ACCURACY and explain Mariota's good numbers. Also take a look at Tannehill's numbers and explain those too - if you can.2018-19 Deep Ball Project | Football Outsiders

I find it ironic you trying to call Vondy out for posting a play showing less than ideal ball placement by Tannehill and rather than say it wasn't a great throw or he needs to be more accurate with it, you ignore Tannehill completely and attack me and Vondy? LOL! Don't you think Tannehill has to have better ball placement too?

BTW, how would Tannehill be MORE accurate than Mariota but have a LOWER completion percentage?

 

cuz abc has no freaking clue what he's talking about, he just makes up stuff in his mariota-hatred-induced rage

 

Please don't speak like you're an expert while you are cherry-picking stats. You should know better.

Let's put this stupid thing to bed:

These are their 2015 evaluations using the same method:

Mariota:

One of the more anticipated young quarterbacks in recent memory, Mariota hasn’t gained a reputation for being a solid deep QB just yet, but there’s plenty of promise.

Despite unimpressive stats, Mariota actually ended up getting the short end of the stick on several occasions, whether it be drops, miscommunications, or failures at the catch. At the end of the day, Mariota’s decision making was excellent downfield, but it’s the accuracy that needs to be worked on.

All things considered, Mariota has given the Titans plenty of hope to work with.



FINAL GRADE: C

Tannehill:

Spoiler: Ryan Tannehill is a really good deep passer. Or so was the case in 2015.

Tannehill’s accuracy has room for improvement, but his completions were really strong, surprisingly strong, and like Bradford, has taken heat for being in a bad situation with bad receivers and pass protection.

Nothing really stands out statistically for Tannehill, but in terms of deep film he delivered the goods in 2015.



FINAL GRADE: B+


Now, for 2016

Mariota:

Marcus Mariota is already a great quarterback. His pocket movement, snappy fast throwing motion, ability to create throwing lanes and uncanny ability to use his eyes to manipulate the secondary have ascended him into a borderline top 10 quarterback.

However, one area where he shows weaknesses in is the deep ball. So why do the Titans pass downfield so much? That is an area where head coach Mike Mularkey is too overtly ambitious in. The route combinations and lack of separation do in a chunk of the incompletions, and there’s not as much intermediate routes as I would like to have.

That said, there’s some stuff to like from Mariota’s deep passing. While it’s around the same quality as his rookie downfield passing, there’s more touchdowns and some real pristine throws in the mix. The receiving group experienced less miscommunication this time around, helping ease Mariota a bit.

Still, several inaccurate completions reached the surface, hurting Mariota’s accuracy percentage. The arm strength is best suited for shorter throws, and these factor into why I believe there’s too much downfield passing in Tennessee’s offense. Not bad, but Mariota is definitely at his best in the intermediate range of passing.

FINAL GRADE: C

Tannehill:

The progression of Ryan Tannehill has been wonderful to watch for those who look deeper. In the last two seasons, his deep ball has become one of the league’s best, so it should be no surprise he’s become a downfield master under Adam Gase.

With better defined routes, Tannehill’s accuracy soared. His overall accuracy of 64.1% was 4th in 2016, and his accuracy on throws of 20+ was 61.0%, The 2nd highest (only behind Derek Carr).

Despite suffering from some receiver drops, Tannehill’s accuracy and placement were astonishingly good. We’re talking throws that rival the ones Aaron Rodgers makes on a daily basis!

Ryan Tannehill is a really good quarterback, and though his deep passing lacks quantity, it easily makes up for it in quality. Dolphins fans should be highly pleased with the results their quarterback is producing, and in 2016 his downfield passing was one of the year’s absolute best.

FINAL GRADE: A

Man, when you are right, you're right. Mariota is such an amazing deep passer and Tannehill sucks. Let's just ignore the large sample of data that we have and focus on one year in which they were both injured, attempted very few of these throws and form our entire opinion of them as players based on that. And let's ignore that we've seen several examples of him making deep passes during the preseason and he isn't even as close to as bad as you are trying to make him out to be.

You're own source for your argument disagrees with you. And I bolded everything that I've been saying about the two, which they seem to agree with based on a 2 year sample of data, not just one short season for both of them.

You people find these few statistics that you can to support your argument, some often arbitrary inexplicable data or based on an embarassingly small sample pool, and ignore everything else.

 

You guys are great.

-Look at all of these STAT$!! Numbers don't lie!

-Umm , so what about all of these numbers?

-BORING! BULLSH*T!

It's fine if you don't really want to respond. But downvoting when people are using the same method of forming an argument as you are comes across as immature.

 

Interesting. He was one of the leagues most accurate deep ball passers last season

Marcus Mariota was the seventh most accurate deep passer of 2018

 

Read what I literally just posted regarding his deep ball.

 

Don't speak like I'm an expert? How would an expert sound? Oh...like someone who knows, understands, and can explain a subject in detail? Or someone who cherry picks a stat, makes up the wrong conclusion, and then boasts this as proof of something over and over again...until an 'expert' can point out your conclusion is incorrect. And even then, you repeated it several more times.

And the difference is, I'm pointing out stats to make you think. If you can't answer my questions, then your conclusions are incorrect because the stats aren't made up...only your opinion.

Um...so you're trying to bash me for cherry picking stats...yet you're comparing their stats from 2015 and 2016...not 2018...not 2017 and 2018? You're cherry picking so obviously it's laughable.

And the fact that you want to discount Mariota's 2018 due to a lower sample size but accept Tannehill's 2016 with a 'lower sample size' shows your extreme bias.

So let's fill in the gaps you left out (which is what we call cherrypicking right?)!

2017

Tannehill doesn't play due to injury.

Mariota

Top 10 in deep ball accuracy with nearly DOUBLE the sample size of Tannehill in 2016.

"Mariota ranked ridiculously high in many accuracy stats. He was 2nd in overall accuracy, 2nd in accuracy under pressure, 5th in accuracy on throws to tight windows, and 3rd in open window accuracy."

I thought you haters said he couldn't throw accurately into tight windows...or he didn't have a big enough sample size? Oops. Wrong again. Thanks for playing!

But let's complete this and put this to bed properly.

2018

Tannehill has dropped to the 34th best deep ball passer out of 35 QB's.
"I always liked Tannehill more than most people, but it’s become clear he’s a different quarterback post knee injury. Second to last in overall deep accuracy, tied for last in accuracy on throws to his left, last on throws of 26-30 yards, and second to last under pressure, it’s been a tough road to recovery..."

To be fair, everyone should read the article as there are some bright spots to everyone qb.

Mariota

"Following off a great 2017 season in downfield accuracy, Mariota continued that despite numerous setbacks for another great deep passing year in 2018.

Mariota finished in the top five in accuracy percentage in five areas: 31-35, 41+, throws to the middle, throws in clean pockets, and throws into tight windows. He was terrific on throws of 41+ yards, throws to the middle and throws into tight windows, as he finished second in accuracy percentage in all three areas."

As with tannehill, you are not all good or all bad. Despite Mariota's high ranking and good stats, there are some things he needs to improve (talking deep ball passing here). Read the article!

Glad we can agree on that!!!

Which is what you did by not posting the 2017 and 2018 seasons! Talk about cherry picking...!

I'm not trying to make Tannehill anything than what he is. I pointed you to an article who is making the claim. I pointed you to his NFL stats...which you ignore and don't comprehend how you can think one thing while the stats tell the opposite.

Yes, you cherry picked 2 years of sample size from 3 and 4 years ago to suggest how they are today...which is silly when Mariota had a LARGER sample size in 2017 than Tannehill had in 2016 and yet you use Tannehill's 2016 but not Mariota's MORE recent year? Cherry picking stats from year's ago while ignoring a more recent sample size is telling that you have no argument. Almost as telling as you not being able to answer a single question as to why the much more accurate and better deep thrower in your eyes has a LOWER completion percentage AND a lower yards/ att avg. Let's see you explain this...if you can...?

The ones who know what they're talking about? Yes, they are 'my' people!

You made a claim about accuracy. What stats would you want to use besides last year's completion %, career completion percentage, last year's avg/att, career avg/att, and over a dozen deep ball stats charted and evaluated over the last couple of seasons? These are not a few stats, nor are they arbitrary, nor inexplicable data. They are also NOT based on an embarrassingly small sample size. Try again!

You saying things doesn't make them true. To prove a point you need more than cherry picked stats from 3 or 4 years ago and some incorrect personal attacks.

So again...here are some questions for you to contemplate that need explaining IF you want to keep your idea that Tannehill is more accurate and a better deep throw QB.

If Mariota is ONLY accurate because he got to throw the ball short so many times last year, why is his avg/attempt HIGHER than Tannehill's?

Why is his CAREER completion % AND CAREER yards per attempt avg also HIGHER than Tannehill?

Why is Mariota's 2018 completion percentage higher than Tannehill's while his yards per att is ALSO higher?