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Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by GeronimoJackson, Jan 8, 2020.
real men go for the W
But that doesn’t add the percentage chance they had to actually get the TD in the first place.
Factor in the absolute minuscule chance of getting a TD at all, now add the % chance of getting 1 or 2 points after.
It’s almost the same %.
The way probability workrks, in this situation is if we miss the 2 point conversion, we are are up by 7, if we hit the 2 point conversion we are up by 9, if we hit the extra point we are up by 8. Probability says if we are up by 7 and they score a td they will kick and go for ot or they will go for the win and go for 2 (highly unlikely). If we we kick the extra point they will be forced to go for ot with a td and an extra point ( most ppl would go this route). If we score a 2 point conversion we end the game.
By him going for 2 we not only gave ourselves a 33% chance to win the game on one play. We gave them a situation where they had to score a td (which they scored one all game) and a choice between going for 2 and hitting an extra point. That was 100% the right call, even if it didn't work. We roughly gave ourselves an 80% chance of winning with that call. 100% if it hits and 60% if it misses. Great call.
^ not so cut and dried, i think, if you presume we mske the EP to go up 8.
The odds of them scoring with 25 seconds left is extremely low. maybe 1 in 50?
now, using your 33% chance on a 2 pt conversion, those odds go up to 1 in 150 just to TIE and foreclose the possibility they could acrually win if a miracle did occur.
If we’re playing odds, i like that scenario better. i think it came down to him not being quite comfortable enough with Joseph making that EP.
There was only :09 seconds left. I think that 1 in 50 is way low for them to even get the TD
He wanted to win. I don’t think he has reservations for Joseph at xp, he’s like 9/9 since getting signed including 2 earlier in this game.
I don’t like it but everyone is entitled to their opinion. Hope these big gambling decisions don’t cost us any more games
oh, right. i was getting mixed up with the beginning of the previous series. that is a difference.
I'm surprised anyone here needs to ask this question. It was a smart call on his part, and shows he actually knows what's going on and thinking strategy. Much like the false start/delay of game penalties.
how is it not a legit question? I get Vrabel wanted to go for the kill, but if you kick it, you still force the Pats to have to get in the end zone twice and you still wouldn’t lose.