JRob Overrated?

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by TitansWillWin2, Oct 16, 2017.

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  1. abc2330

    abc2330 Pro Bowler

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    Talent can be found anywhere, so I'm not too hung up on exactly where guys were drafted. However, Davis was a bit of a luxury pick.

    Ideally, I'd prefer a blue chip player who has a direct contribution on every snap- QB, offensive or defensive lineman, CB. Any other position would have to be gifted enough to cover up deficiencies in surrounding talent. WR is the least likely to do so as they are at the mercy of their QB and play calling. A #5 pick on a receiver in the current offensive scheme is a complete waste, so hopefully we'll see some changes soon
     
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  2. RPD

    RPD Starter

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    Here's that thing I was talking about:

    "While compiling numbers, I thought it would be interesting to see how regularly teams improved (or declined) after spending a first-round selection on a WR. The numbers may surprise you: Only 10 out of 38 teams improved on their prior year's record. Most declined, with an average (amongst all teams) of .101% decrease in win percentage. By year two of the receiver's career, only 11 teams ultimately improved upon their record from the year prior to drafting that receiver in the first round (though the average decrease in win % lowers to .067). By year three, 15 out of 38 had improved record-wise, but the average team was still worse by .039%. It should be clear from this that teams see no predictable improvement from drafting a top-flight receiver. The concept of "getting over the hump" via this route should be considered a busted myth league-wide."
     
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  3. abc2330

    abc2330 Pro Bowler

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    While it's an entertaining narrative, it's a bit silly. There are 32 first rounders selected every year, but it's fair to guess that fewer than half of all teams improve their win totals over the previous years. You could easily look at Dallas and Cleveland and say that selecting a DE will make your team worse, look at Houston, KC, or Chicago and make the same claim about drafting a QB, use Denver as proof that drafting a tackle is dumb, etc.

    6 out of 8 teams who selected a pass rusher in the first got worse or stayed sucky like the Browns and 49ers, for example. Yet every team who selected offensive players between the 5-10 range improved, despite not much production from those guys. So many players and so many variables that it is impossible to make such a broad claim.
     
    #163 abc2330, Dec 6, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
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  4. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Useless trivia knowledge champion

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    I think it's a valid point and again more teams, the more dependable those average numbers become although if a GM feels a player fits their mold, they'll go against those numbers anyway.

    Browns may still fall under the "break even", Chicago needs 1 win to be "improved" with their selection, etc.

    Not really the point to go team by team and you're definitely right that other factors play a role, like in Houston and the injuries.

    38 isn't really a big sample size but the trend is there that a 1st round WR doesn't really improve your team all that much going by record. More numbers could be used and maybe it's 2nd rounders or 3rd round WR that have the biggest impact.

    Not running the numbers, but maybe another stat check for how much an offense improved by points/yards show the same story. Or if a team went further in the playoffs after a 1st round WR?
     
  5. MariGOATa

    MariGOATa Starter

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    Exaclty.

    Yeah lets just spend money because we can smh.

    If Sims was the player they seem to think than we wouldnt used a pick on a corner and pay 10M to an overrated CB. Lol. This team should of went heavier on the pass rush than corners. Any solid corner could become solid with a solid pass rush. Orakpo cant barely get to the QB, Morgan is mediocre as it gets.
     
  6. abc2330

    abc2330 Pro Bowler

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    A team 6th in the league in sacks and nearly dead last in passing yards allowed totally should have adopted this strategy. Smart.
    There are so many additions and changes in personnel each year that simply looking at the W/L record and attributing that to a very young player is ridiculous. Someone could make the claim that drafting Kevin Dodd led to our miraculous turnaround. What you suggested at the end is definitely a more accurate way of quantifying the difference that a single player makes.
     
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  7. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    I was more than thrilled with our approach to fix the secondary. JR doing God's work...
     
  8. Mitch86

    Mitch86 Pro Bowler

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    This. I don't know why people keep talking like the Titans didn't have a pass rush last year. No there's not a 20 sack guy on the team, but there are a couple of guys capable of double digits and others that are good for 5+.

    This season the rush hasn't been getting home as much but they're still getting a lot of pressure.
     
  9. Dangermode

    Dangermode A New Era has Begun

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    It really is such a vastly improved unit. Even if our pass defense ranking doesn't show it, Ryan, Jackson, Sims, and Byard are all playing at a high level and will only get better with time.

    Yes there have been a couple misses in the Jrob era, but it's impossible for a GM to bat a thousand in this league. Still, he's batting about .900 IMO which is better than most.
     
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  10. MariGOATa

    MariGOATa Starter

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    I dont care how much
    I dont care how many sacks we have, our inconsistency at pressuring the QB is bad. We went against weak olines and couldnt get a lick on savage.
     
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