Evolution or devolution the real numbers on how the nfl has changed..

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by RollTide, May 9, 2012.

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  1. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Basic objective is to compare play calling over the decades and how it has changed. Is the game in a constant state of evolution that means throwing the ball more and more and running it less?

    I was driving to work on Friday after day one of the draft listening to some ignorant twit carry on about how dumb the Browns were for drafting a RB when the nfl is now a passing league. Well the median team in the nfl ran the ball an average of 27.7 times a game. It doesn't matter who carries the ball that 27 times?

    Methodology, i simply took the average number of running plays and passing plays from the median ranked team in each category. There are 32 teams today so i used the 16th ranked team in rush attempts and pass attempts. When there were 28 teams i used the 14th ranked teams in that category etc.

    2011
    Rush per game-27.7
    Pass per game-34.5

    2001
    Rush per game-27.4
    Pass per game-33

    1991
    Rush per game-27.1
    Pass per game-31.2

    1981
    Rush per game-30.1
    Pass per game-32.1

    1971
    Rush per game-33
    Pass per game-26.1

    1961
    Rush per game-31.1
    Pass per game-28.4


    So the league is not as distorted as people think and the league has not changed as much as people think.
     
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  2. 520titan

    520titan Special Teams Standout

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    would like to see the numbers for passing yards decade by decade.
     
  3. Riverman

    Riverman That may be.... Tip Jar Donor

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    Interesting- good job on pulling the data. :applause:

    I think it would be even more interesting to see if the play-type data changed over the decades for teams that won their division, conference and ultimately the super bowl. I think most people refer to what it takes to win in regards to how the game has changed.
     
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  4. Psychop1

    Psychop1 Big Tee

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    I'm not sure this data is relevant at all. When people are talking about the NFL being a passing league, they're not saying teams won't run the ball anymore. They're saying it's a passing league because you need to be a passing team to be successful. How many running teams have won the Superbowl in the last decade? How does your data line up with Superbowl teams?
     
  5. TorontoTitanFan

    TorontoTitanFan Pro Bowler

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    This data obscures the fact that the types of passing plays being run are much different than in previous decades.

    Far more interesting data would be the number of plays run out of different offensive sets.
     
  6. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    It's not "my data" and all the team stats for decades is now available on nfl.com. I'll provide some more comparisons but maybe some of you need to do some homework on that as well.

    I'm sure there is a correlation between passing rating and throwing the ball effectively as being important to winning football.
     
  7. Clark

    Clark #ShoutboxAlley4Life

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    The passing league stuff comes from rule changes.
     
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  8. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Not all rule changes have helped the passing game. They did finally get rid of that moronic out of bounds rule where the ref had to make a judgement call on whether or not a guy would have gotten his feet in.
     
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  9. nickmsmith

    nickmsmith Most poverty RB core.

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    these facts are still good facts.

    Interesting.

    I think it's a quality vs. quality issue.

    Because of the rules that have helped, the passing plays are more effective than they were in the past, I'm guessing. Not that there's many more of them.

    It is important to have a good running back, but history pretty much shows that you can easily win the super bowl without a star running back.

    The reason it isn't smart to spend a high first on a RB is because good RBs can be found in free agency, or in later rounds. Plus the shelf life of them is so short, there are generally wiser investments.

    In fact, 0 of the top 5 rushers last year were 1st round picks.

    And even looking back in recent history since I can remember (the 90s)

    Most of the teams with legendary or at least great RBs don't generally win.

    Some do, when paired with great QBs. (Faulk-Warner) (Davis-Elway) And I believe Faulk's greatest value on that team was as a receiver. He was just an all around great athlete. Without Warner, no chance of a SB win.

    But Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Barry Sanders, Steven Jackson, insert name here

    cannot get it done. They end up toiling on teams that cannot get them there.

    That's why I believe that in most cases, a 1st rounder spent on a running back is a wasted pick. In the end, what did the Chargers really benefit from having LT? Some records, some new fans, no meaningful wins.
     
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  10. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Look at the nfl final 4 teams that played for their conference championship.

    Rank in pass attempts..
    Pats-2
    Giants-5
    ravens-19
    49ers-29th

    3 of the top 4 teams in pass attempts didn't get that far. Lions-Packers-Saints.

    What is it about a great passing game that seems to cause poor defense? Those 3 teams were horrible in the post season on defense and the Pats were horrible statistically all year on defense.

    Rank in rush attempts..
    49ers-3
    Ravens-8
    Pats-17
    Giants-22


    Again the top rushing teams also had the best defenses in the playoffs. Coincidence?

    Note also that the 2 top teams in rushing attempts this year not only made the playoffs but won a playoff game. The Texans and the Broncos.

    So is running the ball obsolete? Apparently not.
     
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