Draft Outliers

Players who are clearly the best NFL draft prospect at their position often don't live up - NFL

I posted something similar in the bust rate thread, asking why OT is seen as the safe pick in the draft when they bust at a monumental rate. This article examines only the first player selected at each position.

Offensive Tackle
Median Top Draft Position: 4th overall pick
Highest-Drafted Outliers: Orlando Pace (1997, first overall pick, +3); Jake Long (2008, first overall pick, +3); Eric Fisher (2013, first overall pick, +3)
We're still waiting for a position in which the outliers all turned out well. This isn't it. Orlando Pace is a newly inducted and deserving Hall of Famer, but that's not the case with the other two tackles. Long had a promising start to his career, making four consecutive Pro Bowls, before myriad injuries reduced him to a shell of his former self. Eric Fisher has been a disappointment for the Chiefs, although he seemed to finally show signs of life as the season went along in 2015. The nicest thing you can say is that the Chiefs at least made the right choice in taking Fisher over Luke Joeckel, who has been even more disappointing for the Jaguars.

Even scarier: The tackles who went off the board with the second overall pick over the past 20 drafts are even worse. There are two failed tackles who only found success after converting to guard (Robert Gallery and Leonard Davis), a failed tackle who converted to a new career (Jason Smith) and a tackle who has committed 24 penalties in two seasons (Greg Robinson). Run away, Laremy Tunsil!

Cornerback
Median Top Draft Position: 8th overall pick
Highest-Drafted Outliers: Shawn Springs (1997, third overall pick, +5); Charles Woodson (1998, fourth overall pick, +4); Quentin Jammer (2002, fifth overall pick, +3); Terence Newman (2003, fifth overall pick, +3); Patrick Peterson (2011, fifth overall pick, +3)

There are no total washouts among this five-person group, which makes it the most successful positional outlier we've seen so far. You know how good Charles Woodson and Patrick Peterson have been. Shawn Springs, Quentin Jammer and Terence Newman weren't quite up to that level, but they each started for more than a decade, with Newman still going for the Vikings at age 38. Does this mean Jalen Ramsey will last forever? Probably not, but it at least makes me think that a team in the top five would be taking less of a risk by drafting a cornerback high than it might otherwise seem.