An in-depth look into the Titans defensive struggles

It's no secret this is our weak link and might be the piece that keeps us from making a deep run. I look at some advanced stats to try and figure out what the real issue is.

Kevin Byard was the first guy I looked at. He has been very quiet this year and hasn't been the playmaker he was when we signed him to the big deal.

Byard's missed tackle % has spiked from 2.3% last year (2 missed tackles all year) to 13.5% this year. He's already missed 5 tackles this season. He's also been targeted 16 times allowing 11 catches for 98 yards and a TD. Passer rating of 105.7. Now with no INT's the passer rating is going to be higher and most of Byard's picks come off of errant throws or tipped passes (which is the same for most safeties). However, in 2018 Byard allowed around 50% of the passes throw his way to be completed. This year it's at 68%. The INT's will probably come, but Byard has got to be better at tackling and in coverage.

Kenny Vaccaro has also had his struggles tackling this year. He has already missed more tackles this season (6) than he missed in both 2018 & 2019 (4 both years). Missed tackle % is 13.6% this season (4.5% last year). Coverage really hasn't changed much for him. He allowed around 70% completion last year and it is the same this year (note it was 53% in 2018 though). 114.7 passer rating allowed last season and 125.4 this year so far (79.9 in 2018). 20 targets 14 catches for 152 yards and 2 TD's 0 INT's.

Malcom Butler is actually off to his best start as a Titan so far, but that's in large part to the 2 INT game vs the Bill's. Completion % is down from 63% last year to 60% this year. Passer rating allowed is 79.4 which is way down from 91.3 last year and 101.4 in 2018. Butler is also the 2nd most targeted player in the NFL and the Titans have already had their bye week. Butler has allowed 31 catches on 51 targets for 366 yards 2 TD's and 2 INT's.

Jonathon Joseph is actually having a decent season allowing under 50% completion and a 94.7 passer rating. However, he has been susceptible to giving up bigger gains giving up over 16 yards per completion. 31 targets allowing 15 catches for 249 yards 3 TD's and 1 INT.

Fulton has a small sample size but he has been meh so far. But limited offseason and covid, plus injuries have probably hurt his progression a bit this year. 14 targets allowing 10 catches for 134 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. However, he has missed 16.7% of his tackles.

Not gonna spend much time on Chris Jackson or Tye Smith. It's been bad. Jackson has allowed 16 catches on 20 targets (80%) for 154 yards 1 TD. Tye has limited action as well but it's been ugly. 11 targets 9 catches (81%) for 91 yards 2 TD's.

Rashaan Evans has actually been our best LB to this point. Not only does he have 1 missed tackle so far this year (2.8% missed tackle % down from 13.3 last year), but he is allowing a 76.8 passer rating against so far this year. He's been targeted 13 times allowing 8 catches (61.5%) for 73 yards and 0 TD's. Last year Evans gave up a 86.7% completion and a 112.5 passer rating.

Jayon has been another regression candidate. Last year after he posted 77.1 passer rating against (67.1 in 2018) he's all the way up to 94.1 this year. He didn't allow a single TD in 2018 or 2019 and this year he's already allowed 2. His missed tackle percentage (8.5%) is up slightly from last year (5.4%) but still lower than it was in 2018 (9.3%) so nothing to be overly worried about.

I'll make another post breaking down our pass rusher and defensive line later today.

 

For reference 2 CB's who have been talked about in trade rumors:

Stephon Gilmore: 30 targets allowing 16 catches (53.3%) 218 yards 1 TD and 1 INT a 74.0 passer rating allowed. Last year Gilmore did not allow a single TD on 101 targets.... allowed 51 catches (50.5%) 599 yards and 6 INT's a 44.1 passer rating allowed. Insane season!

Xavien Howard: is having a spectacular season so far this year 30 targets 14 catches allowed (46.7%) 248 yards 1 TD 4 INT's a 46.9 passer rating allowed. Last season he only played 5 games and wasn't nearly as effective. 117 passer rating allowed 65% completion percentage and 3 TD's and 1 INT. He was elite in 2018 with a 61.2 passer rating allowed but he only played 12 games.

Gilmore is most definitely atop my wish list and ironically he is cheaper as well. I doubt we make a deal for either though due to limited cap space.

 

Last year Adoree Jackson posted this stat line:

54 targets 36 catches (66.7%) 395 yards 1 TD 0 INT 94.3 passer rating only 11 games played and 10 starts.

2018:
115 targets 65 catches (56.5%) 831 yards 6 TD's 2 INT's 89.4 passer rating allowed

Can't assume he is going to come in and fix the secondary by himself. Also considering he hasn't played a game all season I'm sure he will be rusty.

 

Defensive line and pass rush:

It might be easy to look at the sack numbers and just assume all the Titans pass rushers suck, but that's why I'm doing this. Because looking at one stat isn't going to tell the whole story. So we know the secondary has been bad in coverage. How is that affecting the Titans pass rushers? Well they are tied for 30th in sacks and 30th in QB hurries.

However, the team does rank 6th in QB knockdown %. Which in my opinion is more important than just a hurry or a pressure. A knockdown means you were a half second away from a sack. Titans have a 10.5% QB knockdown percentage Ravens are #1 at 12.1% and Steelers are #2 at 11.9%. For reference the Titans were DEAD LAST in the category last year at 4.5%.

Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons both have 6 QB knockdowns on the year. That's tied for 5th in the league. Some of the guys they are tied with? Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Matt Judon, Cameron Heyward. Some pretty good company there. The league leaders (Grady Jarrett and William Gholston) are 8. Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are at 7.

Clowney is at 5. Which is tied for 18th in the league. Myles Garrett also has 5.

But let's look at pressures and hurries too. The Titans rank 31st in hurry %.and 27th in pressure %.

Harold Landry is also tied with Judon and Aaron Donald in QB Hurries. In fact Landry is at least top 20 in all 3 categories: knockdowns, hurries, and pressures.

Simmons has 9 pressures to Clowney's 8. Landry is at 14.

So how are the Titans one of the top teams in QB knockdowns but one of the worst teams in applying pressure? Well for one they have to be really efficient when they do apply pressure. This means when they do get QB pressure/hurries they are getting the QB to the ground, but just after he's thrown the ball.

I think this can be correlated back to the bad coverage on in the secondary. Short quick throws are negating the Titans pressure numbers because it's hard to get pressure when the QB is throwing the ball in 2 seconds or less. If you go back and look at QB's pass logs vs us it's a lot of short to intermediate throws. Not much really deep down the field.

The sacks will come when the secondary can cover for a little bit longer. I certainly hope Adoree coming back will help things, and it should. But this should be something that makes JRob go get an elite corner that's available. It would really help push this team to the next level.