A two-round mock with TRADES

The wife has me watching Gundam Wing and I needed something to do in the background, so I cooked this sucker up. I remember reading a while back that on average, there are eight trades in the first round every year; and that's exactly how my mock turned out. I only did trades in the first, though: second-round trades are seemingly random and were hard to invent.

My logic behind each trade:

#2: DENVER TO CINCINNATI

Cincinnati is by far the most desperate team in the draft for a QB: they need a day-one starter and have no chance of attracting a veteran free agent. Once Carolina takes Newton, they trade up to ensure they don't miss out on Gabbert to Buffalo. Denver meanwhile knows it will get either Fairley or Dareus at 4 and sees no disadvantage to trading down.


#11: HOUSTON TO SAN DIEGO

Robert Quinn is dropping, but the Chargers want to catch him. The Chargers have a history of trading around the get what they see as unique talent, and Quinn qualifies; with two second-round picks, the price doesn't hurt them either. Houston has a lot of holes on defense and gladly takes the extra pick to move down.


#15: MIAMI TO TAMPA BAY

Tampa is showing a lot of interest in Ryan Kerrigan, but with Jacksonville, New England, and now Houston ahead of them, they trade up to ensure they get him. Miami has its eyes on some specific guys who are likely to fall and takes the extra picks to move down.


#20: MIAMI TO BALTIMORE

Miami sees no threats to its draft plans behind it and looks for a trade partner. They find one in Baltimore, who wants the big pass-rusher Justin Houston but sees a serious threat in Kansas City.


#25: SEATTLE TO DENVER

This DT class is ridiculously deep. Denver's run defense is ridiculously bad. They get great value by grabbing a big run-stuffing DT to match their new penetrating/disruptor Fairley. Seattle, a team with a lot of holes, takes the opportunity to pick up and extra second-rounder.


#27: ATLANTA TO CHICAGO

With Solder still on the board and New England purportedly hunting for O-linemen, Chicago moves up to grab a tackle miles ahead of the next tackle on the board, Derek Sherrod.


#28: NEW ENGLAND TO MINNESOTA

Near the end of the first, teams with QB needs start trying to break back into the first to get ahead of the Day 2 rush. New England, as usual, is entertaining trades, and gets a better deal for Ryan Mallet than it would have at 2:1.


#32: GREEN BAY TO SEATTLE

Seattle takes a cue from Minnesota and doesn't wait till Day 2 to move up for a QB. Green Bay sees plenty of talent left on the board, and draft-happy GM Ted Thompson gladly picks up an extra pick for a very slight drop.


Comments welcome as always!


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ROUND 1

1. Carolina Panthers

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn

2. Cincinnati Bengals (from Denver, 1:3, 3:2)

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

3. Buffalo Bills

Marcel Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama

4. Denver Broncos

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

6. Cleveland Browns

A.J. Green ,WR, Georgia

7. San Francisco 49ers

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

8. Tennessee Titans

Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

9. Dallas Cowboys

Tyron Smith, OT, USC

10. Washington Redskins

J.J Watt, DE, Wisconsin

11. San Diego Chargers (from Houston, 1:18, 2:18)

Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina

12. Minnesota Vikings

Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

13. Detroit Lions

Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

14. St. Louis Rams

Julio Jones , WR, Alabama

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Miami, 1:20, 3:20)

Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

16. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cameron Jordan, DE, California

17. New England Patriots

Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)

18. Houston Texans

Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

19. New York Giants

Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

20. Baltimore Ravens (from Miami, 1:26, 3:26)

Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

21. Kansas City Chiefs

Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida

22. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College

23. Philadelphia Eagles

Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

24. New Orleans Saints

Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

25. Denver Broncos (from Seattle, 2:4, 2:14)

Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple

26. Miami Dolphins

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

27. Chicago Bears (from Atlanta, 1:29, 4:29)

Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

28. Minnesota Vikings (from New England, 2:11, 2012 second)

Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas

29. Atlanta Falcons

Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

30. New York Jets

Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

31. Pittsburgh Steelers

Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

32. Seattle Seahawks (from Green Bay, 2:4, 4:2)

Jake Locker, QB, Washington

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ROUND 2

1. New England Patriots

Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

2. Buffalo Bills

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami

4. Green Bay Packers

Stefan Wisniewski, C, Penn State

5. Cleveland Browns

Drake Nevis, DT, LSU

6. Arizona Cardinals

Aaron Williams, CB, Texas

7. Tennessee Titans

Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

8. Dallas Cowboys

Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

9. Washington Redskins

Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois

10. Houston Texans

Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia

11. New England Patriots

Titus Young, WR, Boise State

12. Detroit Lions

Marcus Cannon, OT, TCU

13. San Francisco 49ers

Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State

14. Seattle Seahawks

Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

15. St. Louis Rams

Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois

16. Oakland Raiders

Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland

18. Houston Texans

Rahim Moore, S, UCLA

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Demarcus Love, OT, Arkansas

20. New York Giants

Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina

21. Indianapolis Colts

Rodney Hudson, C, Florida State

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Marcus Gilbert, T, Florida

23. Kansas City Chiefs

Jerrell Powe, NT, Ole Miss

24. New Orleans Saints

Quan Sturdivant, LB, North Carolina

25. Seattle Seahawks

Allen Bailey, DE, Miami

26. Baltimore Ravens

Davin House, CB, New Mexico State

27. Atlanta Falcons

Jordan Cameron, TE, USC

28. New England Patriots

Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson

29. San Diego Chargers

Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton

30. Chicago Bears

Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State

31. Pittsburgh Steelers

Christian Ballard, DT/DE, Iowa

32. Green Bay Packers

Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma

 

More reflects my firm belief that A.) we will not reach for a QB, and B.) no QB after Newton and Gabbert is worth anything more than a third-round pick. I like Dalton in the third myself and originally played with our trading up with (who else) New England to grab him in the late second, but then decided not to fool with trades at all in the second.

I went for realism this time over what I/we would like to see; and the reality is that while several teams in "desperation mode" will reach in a decidedly weak QB class, Reinfeldt won't.

 

Former firefighter, received a Draft invite.

2tone: both our tackles are second-rounders and one of our guards was a big-time free agent pickup. I'd say we're willing to invest heavily in our line.

More importantly, I always draft BPA for the Titans, and Watkins was the best player on the board when I hit 2:7. If I hadn't gotten lazy I might have engineered a trade-down with the Steelers or Redskins (two teams I think would like Watkins).