2nd overall picks vs 6 others

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by JCBRAVE, Mar 18, 2015.

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Do you want to stay put at 2 or trade back?

  1. Stay at 2

    7 vote(s)
    50.0%

  2. Move back

    7 vote(s)
    50.0%
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  1. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    Next month the Titans and their front office have a decision to make. Its either draft whats expected to be a guaranteed future Pro Bowler in Defensive Lineman Leonard Williams, or trade back and collect draft picks.

    Below is a list that shows fans who was taken 2nd overall vs who was taken in projected spots where the Titans could potentially move back to...

    Its rumored possible trade partners could include; Washington (5th), New York Jets (6th), St Louis (10th), Cleveland (12th), Philadelphia (20th), and maybe even Houston at 16.

    Year Round Pick Team Player Pos
    2014 1 2 Rams Greg Robinson OT
    2013 1 2 Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT
    2012 1 2 Redskins Robert Griffin* QB
    2011 1 2 Broncos Von Miller* LB
    2010 1 2 Lions Ndamukong Suh* DT
    2009 1 2 Rams Jason Smith OT
    2008 1 2 Rams Chris Long DE
    2007 1 2 Lions Calvin Johnson* WR
    2006 1 2 Saints Reggie Bush RB
    2005 1 2 Dolphins Ronnie Brown* RB
    * Pro Bowler


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    201415RaidersKhalil Mack LB
    201315LionsEzekiel Ansah DE
    201215JaguarsJustin BlackmonWR
    201115CardinalsPatrick PetersonCB
    201015ChiefsEric Berry*SS
    200915JetsMark SanchezQB
    200815ChiefsGlenn DorseyDT
    200715CardinalsLevi BrownOT
    200615PackersAJ HawkLB
    200515BuccaneersCadillac WilliamsRB
    5th overall hit rate: 10%


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    201416FalconsJake MatthewsOT
    201316BrownsBarkevious Mingo DE
    201216CowboysMorris ClaiborneCB
    201116FalconsJulio JonesWR
    201016SeahawksRussell Okung*OT
    200916BengalsAndre SmithOT
    200816JetsVeron GholstonDE
    200716RedskinsLaRon Landry*SS
    20061649er'sVeron Davis*TE
    200516TitansPacman JonesCB
    6th overall hit rate: 30%


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    2014110LionsEric EbronTE
    2013110TitansChance WarmackG
    2012110BillsStephon GilmoreCB
    2011110JaguarsBlaine GabbertQB
    2010110JaguarsTyson AlualuDT
    200911049er'sMichael CrabtreeWR
    2008110PatriotsJerod Mayo*LB
    2007110TexansAmobi OkoyeDT
    2006110CardinalsMatt LeinartQB
    2005110LionsMike Williams*WR
    10th overall hit rate: 20%


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    2014112GiantsOdell Beckham*WR
    2013112TexansDJ HaydenCB
    2012112EaglesFletcher CoxDT
    2011112VikingsChristian PonderQB
    2010112ChargersRyan Matthews*RB
    2009112BroncosKnowshon MorenoRB
    2008112BroncosRyan Clady*OT
    2007112BillsMarshawn Lynch*RB
    2006112RavensHaloti NgataDE
    2005112ChargersShawn Merriman*OLB
    12th overall hit rate: 50%


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    2014116CowboysZack Martin*G
    2013116BillsEJ ManuelQB
    2012116JetsQuinton CoplesDE
    2011116RedskinsRyan Kerrigan*DE
    2010116TitansDerrick MorganOLB
    2009116ChargersLarry EnglishDE
    2008116CardinalsDominique Cromartie*CB
    2007116PackersJustin HarrellDT
    2006116DolphinsJason Allen SS
    2005116TexansTravis JohnsonDT
    16th overall hit rate: 30%


    YearRoundPickTeamPlayerPos
    2014120SaintsBrandin CooksWR
    2013120BearsKyle Long*G
    2012120TitansKendall WrightWR
    2011120BuccaneersAdrian ClaybornDE
    2010120TexansKareem JacksonCB
    2009120LionsBrandon PettigrewTE
    2008120BuccaneersAqib Talib*CB
    2007120GiantsAaron RossCB
    2006120ChiefsTamba Hali*LB
    2005120CowboysMarcus SpearsDT
    20th overall hit rate: 30%


    What you see above is that 2nd overall picks are the safest bet at 50%+ hit rate. So the real question becomes, should the Titans lock in and get themselves a future Pro Bowler or take a chance by moving back?
     
    #1 JCBRAVE, Mar 18, 2015
  4. Aqutis30

    Aqutis30 Do you mind - NOT being a Motaur?

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    Even though FA made our #2 with L Williams in it very juicy and scrumptious, I still feel like we have too many holes that need to be filled with younger players in the draft. I'm simply thinking long-term. If I was strictly thinking playoffs this year, I'd stick with picking at #2.
     
    #2 Aqutis30, Mar 18, 2015
  7. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    Thing is, you move out of that spot and dont get the next 2008 Haynesworth you're still dicking around with a bunch of average players. You get Williams and suddenly Casey gets 10 sacks, suddenly Morgan looks like a 1st rounder, everyone benefits from a strong D-Line. Hell, maybe even Griffin looks good.

    I really try believing in drafting by best available players, that way at the end of the day you look back at the roster and have something to work with. If you go on needs youre chasing a never ending cycle.. Draft BPA and let that form your identity. Id much rather go to battle with a difference maker than a guy who fill a void, and we have a lot of them ATM.
     
    #3 JCBRAVE, Mar 18, 2015
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  10. 2ToneBlueBlood

    2ToneBlueBlood Pro Bowler

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    The 2nd overall pick is the best thing the Titans have going for them. I don't think one player is going to come in and turn this thing around. We need difference makers at several positions and instead of letting history dictate what we do, we need to just pull the trigger on the best available trade if there is one (and I'm sure there will be one).
     
    #4 2ToneBlueBlood, Mar 18, 2015
  13. 615nick

    615nick Starter

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    If we aren't going qb, we should trade back. I wouldn't be mad with williams at 2 but hes the only non qb id take there. If we trade back to around the 10 spot we can still get a quality player and have more picks this year along with a future pock or two. With the shape we are in i wouldn't be mad if we went all the way back to around 20 and really load up on picks.

    We have the #2 pick, even with the high success rate of that spot, we'd benefit from moving back. What are the odds we get a pb level player if we add 3 more picks to this draft and one or two next year. Id say its right around the same. Same risk with a chance of more reward.
     
    #5 615nick, Mar 18, 2015
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  16. Alex1939

    Alex1939 Space Invaders Champion

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    I like your thoughts here but I hate that you are using probowl as the stat to define success.
     
    #6 Alex1939, Mar 18, 2015
  19. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    had to establish some line to measure them all against, what else would I have used? cant go by starts, otherwise Griffin and those alike looks like winners
     
    #7 JCBRAVE, Mar 18, 2015
  22. cdubbs2121

    cdubbs2121 Pro Bowler

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    Titans fans would find a way to talk themselves out of JJ Watt if he was there at 2
     
    #8 cdubbs2121, Mar 18, 2015
  25. Alex1939

    Alex1939 Space Invaders Champion

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    Don't know but lets be real... probowl is some bs in the NFL. Popularity matters more than quality play or even actual statistics.

    In addition, this disqualifies more recent selections. For example, Eric Ebron you have as a no star... but what if his career blossoms? It just seems wrong to say that selection is a failure after 1 year.

    Ronnie Brown is a *Success but Reggie Bush is a -Failure! I wouldn't agree with that ranking at all.


    I think you need to disqualify the 2014/2013 picks. Then make statements based on multiple factors, like stats, contract (as in has the team re-signed the player because they are committed to them), and future projections.

    That is obviously more time consuming.
     
    #9 Alex1939, Mar 18, 2015
  28. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    Yea Im not spending anymore time looking at this, fact of the matter is the draft is a crap shoot, with 50/50 odds at the very best, but what is telling is that if you do disqualify 2013-2014 rookies then the 50/50 odds at 2 jumps to 63% and that is enough to sway me to stay at 2 vs moving back and risking it.

    Where youre drafted doesn't make or break your shot at success, but far more top 10 picks are out there killing it on Sundays than guys picked after..
     
    #10 JCBRAVE, Mar 18, 2015
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