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Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Tricky, Jul 20, 2020.
Im up and down on that kid. Evans has a good skillset, he can do pretty much everything.
Eventually, and pretty early IMO, Evans will take on the role of Lewis which will help throttle down DH's carries especially in the 1st half.
It is really hard to predict stats for WRs and TEs since we throw to everybody. I do think Tannehill can throw for 4000 yards if we have enough games. Thing is those yards will be scattered to a bunch of guys including Evans.
Henry played like 60% of the time. If anything ramp up his carries a little
The passing stats here aren't really that far off what we should expect, but I do challenge a few of them.
Here are his assumptions:
-7.8 yards/attempt (slightly better than any season he had before 2019)
-5.1% TD/attempt (better than any season prior to 2018)
-2.5% INT/attempt (about his career average)
-447 attempts (was on pace for ~450 in 2019)
He's giving RT the benefit that he'll be a better QB than he was in Miami, but nowhere close to as good as he was in 2019.
For comparison, his 2019 numbers were: 9.6 Y/A, 7.7 TD/A, and 2.0% INT/A. I don't think he'll necessarily be able to replicate that efficiency, but I'd put him closer to 8.0 Y/A, 6.0 TD/A, and 2.0 INT/A - which are very close to what Russell Wilson did last year.
I agree with his passing volume of 30 attempts/game, but he has RT missing a game. While that's certainly possible, it is for any player in the league, and I doubt he statted out Mahomes or Jackson missing any games.
Based on these assumptions, my projections are:
-3,840 passing yards
It's a regression in terms of efficiency last year, but I think he'll have a bit more volume.
After reviewing the targets from last year, allocating some of the missing ones to other players (ex. giving Delanie's to Jonnu), and moving some around, here's my top 5 receivers:
AJ Brown - 110 targets, 72 catches, 1296 yards, 10 TD's
Corey Davis - 72 targets, 45 catches, 680 yards, 4 TD's
Jonnu Smith - 75 targets, 53 catches, 656 yards, 5 TD's
Adam Humphries - 72 targets, 58 catches, 580 yards, 4 TD's
Derrick Henry - 30 targets, 23 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD's
That leaves 448 yards and 4 TD's to be divided amongst the rest of the receiving options.
Obviously it won't come out like that. Guys will get hurt, and other players will eat into some of these stats based on them filling in, but it still gives you a better idea of what we should expect than what this guy wrote up.
EDIT: Adjusted AJB’s yardage down some. I don’t see him producing another 20 y/c season. Moved him to 18 y/c. That left about 450 yards for other players.
Could see Evans and Firkser getting about 200 each at least, with Firk possibly stealing targets from Humphries.
EDIT 2: I’m an idiot and didn’t count where he had the RB’s getting the other 500 yards of receiving, so removed that rant. Even still, I disagree with his allocation and feel he shorted AJB and Jonnu significantly.