1st Round Comps...who do you take?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Apr 9, 2019.

?
  1. DT Gerald McCoy-lite

  2. DT Ndamukong Suh

  3. DT Stephon Tuitt

  4. EDGE Danielle Hunter

  5. EDGE Leonard Floyd

  6. EDGE Derrick Morgan

  7. OC Jason Kelce

  8. OG Brandon Brooks

  9. WR Josh Gordon (without the drug addiction)

  10. WR DeSean Jackson

  11. WR Percy Harvin

  12. JuJu Smith Schuster

  13. TE Travis Kelce

  14. TE Eric Ebron

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. JR1980

    JR1980 Pro Bowler

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    Yeah....Let’s take a receiver that won’t provide much for 2 years......That will fix our pass problems right away. I’m fine with receiver rounds 2 and after, not round 1.
     
    • Boring Boring x 1
  2. abc2330

    abc2330 Starter

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    He strikes me as a late first pick. But it's really all about perception. If people had been hyping him up up to the next Boldin, Hopkins, etc. People wouldn't be nitpicking as much about the separation because they'd see the great qualities that he provides.

    Kind of like Metcalf is getting hyped to no end as the next Calvin Johnson or whatever. If you had just discovered him on your own, you'd see a guy with a lot of potential, but doesn't have enough tape and really woulld require significant projection in order to see him as a potential superstar.

    WRs are taken in the first every year. If it was an easy position to evaluate, then I think greater than 1/4 of the top 20 WRs in the league would be composed of first round picks. Just like if playing WR were as simple as running in a straight line down the field(which is literally all that Metcalf does) , anyone fast guy could play the position in the NFL. But there's a lot more to it.

    Another thing to consider is that he's playing at 228 right now. He could lose 10 pounds or so and become faster and more explosive than we've yet to see. So yes, he could be a very good pick at 19. I'm just not sure the value adds up unless we prove that we can throw the ball more

    FWIW, Harry had 32 plays of 20 or more yards-the most in his conference
     
    #42 abc2330, Apr 12, 2019 at 5:29 PM
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019 at 5:56 PM
  3. JR1980

    JR1980 Pro Bowler

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    You’re so negative and sad lately Vondy....:(
     
  4. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    I wouldn't feel BAD about taking him. I love his size and mentality. BUT, he needs some serious development in route running and developing wr's hasn't exactly been a strength of ours. That's what would make me nervous.
     
  5. Broken Arrow

    Broken Arrow Just a Fan....

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    SUH & Gordon are the Tops.

    Everyone else seems like they've fallen into the correct scheme/lineup.... amplifying their numbers.
     
  6. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    NFL people will 'nitpick' separation on ALL wr's because getting open is vitally important. Even for a guy his size.

    He's getting that hype because he is a similar size/speed athlete. I think it's the sparq score where they take into account your 40 and your weight. In combine history, Metcalf is like 3rd behind Calvin but ahead of Julio Jones. You just don't get that kind of athlete very often. I agree he's a projection...but with his size speed and strength, he has more ways to win vs a db than a guy like Harry. Both could be huge...or both could bust. Both need real development and need to be used correctly to have their best chance at success. For instance, there is not a ton of tape of Harry getting open vs top college cb's either.

    Again, it's a numbers game. I don't remember the exact numbers off hand, but for an example, let's say you have a 50% hit rate on 1st round wr's and that went down 10% per round. Let's take 2018 as an example. If 33 wr's were drafted and 2 were in the first round, that means only 6% were first rounders and 94% were outside round 1. Given these numbers, you should start to see how this will play out. Lower hit rate but not hugely lower given the vastly larger number of wr's in rounds 2-4. You think this is all about evaluation, but it's not. There are simply many more wr's who will go in rounds 2-4 who will turn into starters or better. Draftpicks are gambling. The more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win. But every wr in this class needs development to become a star player and some teams are better than others at developing that talent and which offense they go to has an effect on their production...as you illustrated in the post pointing out how many catches/yards CD would have had with an avg number of attempts.

    If you think Metcalf literally ONLY runs a straight line down the field, you are incorrect. He does and has run other routes.

    One point is, are defenses gonna change putting 8 in the box if Harry is out wide with avg speed? I tend not to think so. Metcalf doesn't need to develop much to be an instant deep threat is my point. Does that mean they are more likely to take either guy? Who knows. Harry definitely has the toughness and mental makeup we like, but he's lacking in the athletic department. Metcalf is nearly the ideal size weight speed athlete...but isn't a developed football player. Both are question marks. I could see either going round 1 or round 2. Depends on which team wants what.
     
  7. abc2330

    abc2330 Starter

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    I actually think Metcalf is perfect for our offense. I question his ability to become a complete #1 WR, but he's got the traits to provide play making ability at an elite level. We just don't get enough big plays through the air. We have guys with good play making ability, but we really need one of those guys who can take a 5 yard pass the length of the field or get major separation downfield in order for our passing offense to compete with those who have better QBs.

    A worry I have is if he's going to care more about his physique than he is about being at his ideal playing weight. Like, if he will continue to bulk up even though his play speed takes a hit. And if he'll worry more about weight lifting than he will about his conditioning. I don't see him as a potential bust due to the fact that he's just too explosive and fast not to make at least some big plays, but I worry that he may be too proud like David Boston.

    As far as Harry is concerned, you are correct. Defenses will not back up for him. But paired with an elite QB, he could be a consistently productive one whose lack of separation will be a non-factor
     
    • High Five High Five x 1
  8. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    For Metcalf, the concerns are mostly what you mentioned. Add to that he did have a neck injury so that medical has to be signed off on by the team doctors before anyone considers drafting him. Additionally, if he's just a marginal 40 catches a year but with a 18ypc average, he'll still be considered a bust going in round 1. Used in the right way, and assuming he's not more concerned with bodybuilding than playing football (insert David Boston reference), he could be a big asset to this offense. Plus, they like having one speed guy in this style offense to take the top off the D and open things up for the #1 wr and slot or TE.

    I think Harry could be a great WR but he needs a lot of work on his route running. If he doesn't pick that up big time he will not be a JuJu Smith Schuster type....no matter who his QB is.
     
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