To keep Tanny or NOT?

Another good piece to read breaking down the Tannehill situation and putting him in historical context. Compares him to Case Keenum, which I think is a really apt comp.

The Titans would be foolish to make a long-term bet on Ryan Tannehill's sudden greatness

 

I watched it over and over to rehear their comments

 

I don’t get the Keenum comparison.

Keenum didn’t play even remotely close to the level THill is currently and Keenum proved a failure multiple times (Houston/STL) before having his “best” season (not even all that good) in Minnesota where he wasn’t the focal point of the offense.

That is the only comparison that’s valid I see. Neither were/are the focal point of the offense.

 

The comparison is absurd

 

Bad comparison because Keenum didnt return to the same team the following year.

We'd be bringing Tanny back into this same situation

and look at the schedule, looks easier than this yrs

• Home
• Houston Texans ?
• Indianapolis Colts W
• Jacksonville Jaguars W
• Cleveland Browns W
• Pittsburgh Steelers W
• Chicago Bears W
• Detroit Lions W
• AFC East* W

• Away
• AFC West* W
• Minnesota Vikings ?
• Jacksonville Jaguars W
• Green Bay Packers ?
• Houston Texans ?
• Indianapolis Colts ?
• Cincinnati Bengals W
• Baltimore Ravens L

theres a good 10 wins coming our way with tanny at the helm in 2020..

 

Keenum was second in the NFL in QBR in 2017, but I think you might be misinterpreting the point the author is making.

The point is that mediocre QBs can have one career year and suddenly look like they have figured it all out. Before Keenum it was McCown. There are a bunch of examples and none of them end well/

The point is that Tannehill's numbers are highly likely to regress to the mean. Paying him based on this small of a sample size is an enormous risk. Maybe he's the exception, but he doesn't have to be. The Titans can just franchise him and see if he falls back to earth or not. That's why talk of a long-term deal is somewhat insane.

 

The signs are showing that Tannehill can be a real deal top qb. Whether you want to believe that or not is up to you. If we franchise him and he has a similar year next year, now you are looking at a 35mil a year contract when we could probably get him for 28 right now. That saved 7 mil a year is a solid player on the team.

 

Highly likely to regress? Maybe.

To the mean? I don't think that's "highly likely" because the situation that generated the mean has changed.

 

Not only is the situation completely different all around, Keenum was #3 QB that year, but his “career year” is dwarfing those guys.
Keenum statistically wasn’t that good. You picked QBR, did he have anything else to his name that said anything about franchise QB? The answer is no.

He was put in a good position on an already good team and he did t turn the ball over. That’s it.

THill was put in place on a struggling team and has been literally the best QB in the league since taking over.
Him “regressing” to a mean I should still quite good and more than deserving of a starting job.

Pair this with Tennessee’s inability to draft and develop a QB and you have the answer for the immediate future, THill. No need to franchise, pay the guy and fix other positions with the draft.
THill will be just fine as a starter for the next 4-5 years easy.