1st Round Comps...who do you take?

I wouldn't feel BAD about taking him. I love his size and mentality. BUT, he needs some serious development in route running and developing wr's hasn't exactly been a strength of ours. That's what would make me nervous.

 

NFL people will 'nitpick' separation on ALL wr's because getting open is vitally important. Even for a guy his size.

He's getting that hype because he is a similar size/speed athlete. I think it's the sparq score where they take into account your 40 and your weight. In combine history, Metcalf is like 3rd behind Calvin but ahead of Julio Jones. You just don't get that kind of athlete very often. I agree he's a projection...but with his size speed and strength, he has more ways to win vs a db than a guy like Harry. Both could be huge...or both could bust. Both need real development and need to be used correctly to have their best chance at success. For instance, there is not a ton of tape of Harry getting open vs top college cb's either.

Again, it's a numbers game. I don't remember the exact numbers off hand, but for an example, let's say you have a 50% hit rate on 1st round wr's and that went down 10% per round. Let's take 2018 as an example. If 33 wr's were drafted and 2 were in the first round, that means only 6% were first rounders and 94% were outside round 1. Given these numbers, you should start to see how this will play out. Lower hit rate but not hugely lower given the vastly larger number of wr's in rounds 2-4. You think this is all about evaluation, but it's not. There are simply many more wr's who will go in rounds 2-4 who will turn into starters or better. Draftpicks are gambling. The more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win. But every wr in this class needs development to become a star player and some teams are better than others at developing that talent and which offense they go to has an effect on their production...as you illustrated in the post pointing out how many catches/yards CD would have had with an avg number of attempts.

If you think Metcalf literally ONLY runs a straight line down the field, you are incorrect. He does and has run other routes.

One point is, are defenses gonna change putting 8 in the box if Harry is out wide with avg speed? I tend not to think so. Metcalf doesn't need to develop much to be an instant deep threat is my point. Does that mean they are more likely to take either guy? Who knows. Harry definitely has the toughness and mental makeup we like, but he's lacking in the athletic department. Metcalf is nearly the ideal size weight speed athlete...but isn't a developed football player. Both are question marks. I could see either going round 1 or round 2. Depends on which team wants what.

 

For Metcalf, the concerns are mostly what you mentioned. Add to that he did have a neck injury so that medical has to be signed off on by the team doctors before anyone considers drafting him. Additionally, if he's just a marginal 40 catches a year but with a 18ypc average, he'll still be considered a bust going in round 1. Used in the right way, and assuming he's not more concerned with bodybuilding than playing football (insert David Boston reference), he could be a big asset to this offense. Plus, they like having one speed guy in this style offense to take the top off the D and open things up for the #1 wr and slot or TE.

I think Harry could be a great WR but he needs a lot of work on his route running. If he doesn't pick that up big time he will not be a JuJu Smith Schuster type....no matter who his QB is.