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Would the Lions trade?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Vigsted, Jan 29, 2006.

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  1. Starkiller

    Starkiller 9

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    I think a good QB should be able to succeed even on a bad team in all but the most extreme circumstances (Carr could be one). There are a number of good QBs on bad teams.
    #51
  2. GLinks

    GLinks Titans on the Rise

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    Nah. I'd rather keep the pick right now.
    #52
  3. GLinks

    GLinks Titans on the Rise

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    Ahhh, you were speaking of Rose Bowl stats only, where as I posted the season stats for the 3 QBs. My bad, Vigsted, but you're right the ESPN math was wrong on that.

    I got the season stats from there as well.
    #53
  4. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff Member

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    Well, we can expect any QB drafted in the top five is going to bad team. What I think makes a difference is whether or not they are in a down season or two or the bottom-feeders of the league year after year. You can expect those losing programs with good front offices to get things back on track in a couple of seasons.

    Let's look at those QBs drafted in the first five picks of the draft since 1986 and the games they played in their rookie year. Note that this is not starts:

    2004
    E. Manning - played in nine games as a rookie.
    Rivers - played in no games as a rookie.

    2003
    Palmer - played in no games as a rookie.

    2002
    Carr - played 16 games as a rookie.
    Harrington - played 14 games as a rookie.

    2001
    Vick - played in eight games as a rookie.

    1999
    Couch - played in 15 games as a rookie.
    McNabb - played in 12 games as a rookie.
    A. Smith - played in seven games as a rookie.

    1998
    P. Manning - played in 16 games as a rookie.
    Leaf - played in 10 games as a rookie.

    1995
    McNair - played in four games as a rookie.
    Collins - played in 15 games as a rookie.

    1994
    Shuler - played in 11 games as a rookie.

    1993
    Bledsoe - played in 13 games as a rookie.
    Mirer - played in 16 games as a rookie.

    1990
    George - played in 13 games as a rookie.

    1989
    Aikman - played in 11 games as a rookie.

    1987
    Testaverde - played in six games as a rookie.

    1986
    Everett - played in six games as a rookie.

    So dating back to '86, you have a total of 20 QBs taken in the top five. Of those, 12 played in 10 or more games as a rookie. Of those 12, eight have to be considered busts. Only Aikman, Bledsoe, P. Manning and McNabb went on to successful careers for the team who drafted them.

    To flip that around, of those eight players who played less than ten games their rookies season, I think the jury is out on E. Manning, Palmer and Rivers though Manning and Palmer both look to have bright futures. That leaves five in Vick, Smith, Testaverde, McNair and Everett. I think it is safe to say Smith was a HUUUUUUUUGE bust ;). Testaverde had to get out of Tampa before he became a solid QB but he was one. Everett had a number of good seasons in LA. Vick can't be considered a top QB after the past two seasons and McNair has had his moments but also isn't considered among the elite anymore. But I don't call either a bust.

    Final results: QB busts who played more than 10 games, (not counting Carr or Harrington) - 5. QB bust who didn't play in 10 games as a rookie - 1.

    I won't say any of this proves squat but I still think we see a trend of poor decisions by the traditionally worse teams reaching for a QB and most QBs benefitting from a year to develop.

    :geek:
    #54
  5. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    Based on that we should trade our whole draft to get Rivers...
    If anything we can say that there is about a 50/50 chance when drafting a QB in the top 5 you will get a bust or at best average QB.
    However, of the 50% that go on to be solid QBs there is almost a 50% chance of getting a real good pro-bowl quality QB.
    #55
  6. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff Member

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    I'm not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. :lol:

    Well, of the 17 drafted since '86 (once you drop E. Manning, Rivers and Palmer because they are so young), you have...

    Two HOFers (assuming Manning is in) - 12%
    Five more who had a number of quality seasons - 30%
    Six who may or may not ever be more than average QBs - 35%
    And four total busts - 23%

    So I'd say 50% is about right for getting a good or great QB with a top five pick. And when you look at the busts, notice the teams making the picks. Most have been among the dogs of the NFL the last 20 years so you usually have inferior talent and these guys are thrown to the wolves from day one.
    #56
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