Why we shouldn't take a WR in the 1st round

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Smart***Titan, Mar 20, 2007.

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  1. Smart***Titan

    Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    This article makes some great points. I had a post awhile back that presented a similar argument, but Mr. Pasquarelli is much more eloquent than I.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2805425

    This is the best quote... "For the purpose of assessing the recent first-rounders, let's eliminate those selected in the past three years because their body of work is not yet sufficient for reliable analysis. That leaves 27 wide receivers from the first rounds of the 1997-2003 drafts. Of those 27 wideouts, 14 are out of the league entirely and nine are with franchises other than the ones that drafted them." Yes, more than half of the 1st round receivers from 1997-2003 are not even in the league anymore. These are guys that were "can't miss". Not only did they miss, they aren't even in the league anymore. These are guys that teams spent lots of time and money researching... And they bombed. Just think about that when your looking at this years class. Odds are if 5-6 guys go in the first round, then at least 2 of them won't even be in the league in 5-10 years.

    Everyone gets hung up on "their guy" (myself included) and thinks they are a can't miss. The reality of the WR position is that you don't need to have a Randy Moss on your team to win the super bowl, just ask Tom Brady. The colts have had the top receiver tandem for years, along with one of the best QB's in NFL history, and they finally won the big one just this year. It seems like the Pats could put anyone in there and they would do well (not counting Reche Caldwell).

    I agree that we need to upgrade our WR's, I'm just of the opinion that we can do that later in the draft and build up other positions of need in the 1st round, such as DE. Everyone has acknowledged that this years draft is deep in WR's... So why take one with our first rounder?
    #1
  2. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    why we do need to take a WR in the first round...

    all of the WRs we've taken since 1995:
    chris sanders, derrick mason, joey kent, kevin dyson(1st round), derran hall, eddie berlin, justin mccareins, darrell hill, jake schifino, tyrone calico, roydell williams, brandon jones, courtney roby and jonathan orr.

    14 picks, one 1000 yard receiver. yes, you can get good WRs later in the draft, but we havent.

    with that said, i would rather get a quality DE in the first than WR, but i would take which ever position has the better player.
    #2
  3. zackmann

    zackmann Guest

    i'm I am firmly in the camp of "NOT taking a WR in the 1st round"...
    #3
  4. User Name

    User Name Hot Dog Water

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    This article suggests you don't need a Randy Moss to win a Super Bowl. It doesn't say don't take a WR round1 if they are the best player available and would immediately fill a need for your team. If Adams/Anderson/Carriker are gone we go CB/WR/S depending on the best player available. Chances are the 2 top corners will be gone, and the 2 top Safeties will be gone. The article makes since but I don’t see people changing their draft strategy because of it. Hopefully every team reads this and Calvin Johnson falls to us.
    #4
  5. titansfan9

    titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    Edit | Delete 3/16/07 at 10:27 PM

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bold- Great WR or Pro Bowler

    Normal- Average WR, may still have potential

    Italics-Bust, bottom of depth chart, may be out of the league





    2004
    1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh
    1 7 7 Roy Williams Lions Texas
    1 9 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars Washington
    1 13 13 Lee Evans Bills Wisconsin
    1 15 15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers LSU
    1 29 29 Mike Jenkins Falcons Ohio State
    1 31 31 Rashaun Woods 49ers Oklahoma State
    2 18 50 Devery Henderson Saints LSU
    2 22 54 Darius Watts Broncos Marshall

    2 30 62 Keary Colbert Panthers USC



    2003
    1 2 2 Charles Rogers Lions Michigan State
    1 3 3 Andre Johnson Texans Miami
    1 17 17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals Penn State
    2 12 44 Taylor Jacobs Redskins Florida
    2 13 45 Bethel Johnson Patriots Texas A&M

    2 22 54 Anquan Boldin Cardinals Florida State
    2 28 60 Tyrone Calico Titans Tennessee
    2 31 63 Teyo Johnson Raiders Stanford



    2002
    1 13 13 Donte Stallworth Saints Tennessee
    1 19 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos Hawaii
    1 20 20 Javon Walker Packers Florida State
    2 1 33 Jabar Gaffney Texans Florida
    2 4 36 Josh Reed Bills LSU
    2 14 46 Tim Carter Giants Auburn
    2 15 47 Andre Davis Browns Virginia Tech
    2 16 48 Reche Caldwell Chargers Florida
    2 30 62 Antwaan Randel El Steelers Indiana
    2 31 63 Antonio Bryant Cowboys Pittsburgh
    2 33 65 Deion Branch Patriots Louisville

    2001
    1 8 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan
    1 9 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina
    1 15 15 Rod Gardner Redskins Clemson

    1 16 16 Santana Moss Jets Miami
    1 25 25 Freddie Mitchell Eagles UCLA
    1 30 30 Reggie Wayne Colts Miami
    2 2 33 Quincy Morgan Browns Kansas State
    2 5 36 Chad Johnson Bengals Oregon State
    2 10 41 Robert Ferguson Packers Texas A&M
    2 21 52 Chris Chambers Dolphins Wisconsin



    2000
    1 4 4 Peter Warrick Bengals Florida State
    1 8 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers Michigan State
    1 10 10 Travis Taylor Ravens Florida
    1 21 21 Sylvester Morris Chiefs Jackson State
    1 29 29 R. Jay Soward Jaguars USC
    2 1 32 Dennis Northcutt Browns Arizona
    2 5 36 Todd Pinkston Eagles Southern Mississippi

    2 16 47 Jerry Porter Raiders -West Virginia




    2000-2004 NFL Draft WR's

    1st Rounders-
    Great: 7 out of 24
    Average: 6 out of 24
    Poor: 11 out of 24

    13 out of 24 chance you get a solid WR in the 1st round
    11 out of 24 chance you get a bust, bottom of the depth chart, or player who will be out of the league within 3 years.

    54% chance of good
    46% chance of bad
    when drafting in the 1st round



    2nd Rounders-
    Great: 3 out of 23
    Average: 7 out of 23
    Poor: 13 out of 23

    10 out of 23 chance you will get a solid WR in the 2nd round
    13 out 23 chance you will get a bust, bottom of the depth chart, or player who will be out of the league within 3 years.


    43% chance of good
    57% chance of bad
    when drafting in the 2nd round



    Total (1st and 2nd Round)-
    Great: 10 out of 47
    Average: 13 out 47
    Poor: 24 out of 47


    23 out of 47 chance you will get a solid WR in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
    24 out of 47 chance you will get a bust, bottom of the depth chart, or player who will be out of the league within 3 years.


    50% chance of good
    50% chance of bad
    when drafting in the first two rounds



    -those are the real percentages- I didn't make that up, really 50% chance, I find that ironic because we say it a lot, "the draft is a gamble", "the draft is a crapshoot"- but its funny when numbers and history back you up on those statements- its really 50/50 of you getting a good WR or a bad WR, and the numbers above confirm that...
    #5
  6. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    teyo johnson was a TE
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  7. User Name

    User Name Hot Dog Water

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    Take the time and do the same thing for RB, QB, DLine.
    #7
  8. oochymp

    oochymp Camp Fodder

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    it's all about scouting, if you do a good job of it, you'll end up with good players, if you go quickly through the list, look at specific stats, you're a lot more likely to end up with a bust
    #8
  9. Smart***Titan

    Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    OK... However, the point that I'm making is that from the span of 1997-2003, 27 teams felt that they were taking the best player available and would immediately fill a need for their team. 14 of those teams chose players who several years later weren't even in the NFL. 9 of those teams chose players who several years later weren't on their team. 4 of those teams chose players who went to the pro bowl.

    If the Titans feel that they are choosing a WR at #19 who is the best player available, then let's go for it. However, remember as an above poster mentioned our track record for drafting receivers hasn't exactly been exemplary. We have a new GM, but what's to make you think that this changes things exponentially? No matter who is GM, receiver is a hit or miss, boom or bust position. Why pay a guy 1st round money who may end up being your #3or 4 receiver (Mike Williams). Look at even the best run teams. Baltimore has been cheered for their drafts... they used one of their earliest recent picks (10th overall pick) on a WR... Travis Taylor. How'd that work out for them?

    As the article points out, why spend a lot of money on receivers when there are guys out there who can do just as well? New England went to the AFC championship with their starting recievers being guys who were cut because they just weren't that good. You can of course make the argument that if they had better receivers they would have won it all. However would they be in the salary cap position they are in now if they had one or two top flight receivers on salary? Probably not. I mean they got rid of Branch, their best receiver, rather than pay him. The importance of the position does not merit the amount of money that is being spent. I hate New England, but they have managed the cap as well or better than anyone. They just don't value the WR postion as much as other teams, and I think that's something we can take from them.
    #9
  10. PAtitansfan53

    PAtitansfan53 Kush & OJ

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    D. Mase was a 4th rounder not a first which shows you can get a quality WR anytime in the draft which is why I would go CB/DL first pick seeing that most likely the top 2 S are gone. I personally wouldn't mind Revis.

    By the way can someone help me get my sig to work.
    #10
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