Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by SupDawg, Jan 3, 2007.
Since Brady went #199........no I don't.
Kurt Warner didn't even get drafted. Guess we should trade all our draft picks away for nothing to save the cap space and just sign some Arena Leaguers...
There are a lot of Brady caliber players at 199 - yeah right
He has a Super Bowl ring, McNair doesn't...since you want to elevate this to being silly. We have a long way to go before it's decided which QB was the best of this draft class, and even that is hard to measure, because this is still a team sport, and it takes more than a QB to get a team there.
I'm not elevating it to being silly, you just don't want to try to defend your argument. You're the one who tried to prove that the #3 pick is no better than the #10 pick just because Tom Brady went at #199. If that's some sort of defense, then why not use an undrafted guy? Does that show that all draft picks are equal?
If you notice I said in the FIRST ROUND. What I am saying is that there is no guarantee that picking someone #3 is going to work out any better than picking at #10. There have been many QB's taken at #1 that aren't in the NFL anymore. This is the next level, some make the transition, some don't. The point that it is far too soon to tell about any of them.
I'm too lazy to do it, but somebody should really calculate the successrate for the different rounds and UDFA's. I wouldn't be surprised if it's something like <95%, <80%, <65%, <50%, <35%, <20%, <10%, <10% if the criteria is >4 years of starting experience (ST excluded), but that's of course just a guess.
I know you said first round. Of course then you also threw in Tom Brady, who had nothing to do with the first round.
Fact is, the #3 pick in the draft is worth much more than the #10 or #11 pick. Obviously that's doesn't mean that players who get drafted earlier are going to always be better than guys drafted later. But to suggest there isn't much difference is way off...
Vince was Bud and Reese's man. Chow and Fisher wanted Lienart. I guess they all forgot about Cutler somehow. That'll probably bite them in the backside soon enough.
The difference between #3 and #10/#11 in the first round can be quite significant, depending on how deep the talent pool is in the draft. In years like 2006 where you have 5-6 perceived top-notch talents (VY, Bush, Leinart, Cutler, D'Brickshaw Ferguson, A.J. Hawk), the difference between 3 and 11 isn't as big because the talent pool is deeper. In other weak years (such as 2005) a higher pick can be an albatross of sorts. Not only are you taking a bigger shot at someone, you still have to pay the person #3 money, even if the organization feels the person isn't worth #3 money. So the difference between #3 and #11 can be huge both talent-wise and financially. That's what makes the draft such a crap shoot.
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