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Titans RB Situation Uncertain for '06

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by goTitans.com, Jan 17, 2006.

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  1. GoT

    GoT Strength and Honor Tip Jar Donor

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    I would love to see that chart, whoever does it highlite the 3rd down runs.

    Even in CB's best season he was only like 30th in run success according to the Outsiders.
    #61
  2. Vigsted

    Vigsted Starter

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    Because the amount you pay for 5 good/great linemen as opposed to 5 average linemen is less than what you pay for 1 good/great runningback as opposed to 1 average runningback.

    LT easily costs twice as much as CB if not more, but I doubt the Denver or Pittsburgh O-line cost twice as much as any O-line in the league (even the Cardinals).

    I didn't mean cheaper in an absolute comparison.
    #62
  3. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    2008...

    4.2 yards a carry is mediocre? In eddie george's last three years here he averaged a full yard less than that. In eddie prime years he averaged less than that. It's not that bad. You said that brown was a bad back. What is your definition of "bad"? And to say that he is too expensive is moronic. He's costing us peanuts!

    Yet again another poster ignores completely brown's talent in the passing game. :sad2:


    If we can get henry to sign a 2 year deal for around $3M that means we can have both backs for just over $2M against the cap. We can be assured that on any given sunday one of those 2 guys will be healthy and motivated to play and both should be plenty motivated this season. What are our other options? I want us to use our money and draft picks on some other area of the team where we need it most. With a little better luck with the injuries brown is capable of having the kind of year willie parker had.
    #63
  4. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    Brown was an 1800 yard back in college and one of the reasons he went so low in the draft was because of his running style and injury concerns.
    I agree that Brown has issues with staying healthy but this argumanet keeps going around in circles. EG was one of the most durable backs in NFL history (although I would contest his toe injury basically ended his days as a dominant RB) so setting EGs durability as the standard is setting the standard pretty darn high. Also keep in mind that EG was an early 1st round pick, Brown was a late 3rd. Also keep in mind that Brown had 6 100 yard games in 11 games. EG his last 3 years had 7.
    Now, do we need a solid backup RB to compliment Brown and fill in when he is injured? Yes, which is why even after Brown becomes a FA he will not bring the kind of money a true franchise back would bring. However, this idea we can just pick a franchise back like Edge (who has had injury problems in his career) or Alexander or LT is pure fantasy unless we want to use an early round pick and even then there are no guarantees. Heck, there are no guarantees even if we draft a RB who was never hurt in college he will not rip a knee in training camp and be lost for his whole career. Thats why dumping a high 1st round pick and a bunch of money into a RB is risky.
    #64
  5. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Some interesting stats...

    Eddie george career. One first down every 5.4 carries. 522 first downs, 2865 carries.

    Chris brown career. One first down every 5.8 carries. 85 first downs, 500 carries.

    Eddie george one first down for every 2.5 pass receptions. 106 first downs, 268 catches.

    Chris brown one first down for every 2.1 pass receptions. 25 FDs out of 53 catches.

    Night and day difference? No.


    A note about football outsiders which is a stat site that tries to use a formula for evaluating players, teams and units. I can't complain about them too much after all they are free and do provide some interesting stat comparisons but their methodology is flawed. For starters their minimums are too low. The minimum carries for a runningback to be ranked is just 75. It should be 125-150. As a result backup players actually get ranked higher than starters, even pro bowl players!
    For example in 2002 travis henry made the pro bowl with over 1400 yards rushing. According to football outsider methodology henry was only the 32nd most effective runner that year. I think that makes my point.
    #65
  6. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Ripping into bipolar...

    Don't you understand the concept of draft value? That you expect far more out of a first rd pick than a third? Chris brown was drafted in the same round that we drafted rich gardner. How about shad meir? Remember him? Byron frisch? All third rd picks.

    Why would anyone assume that a late, very late third rd pick would even still be on this team? If chris brown had been nothing more than a good backup-third down back we would have to consider him a good pick. Chris brown was the 93rd player taken in that draft!

    Some third rd picks don't even make the team.


    The issue here is not whether brown is as good as alexander, or eddie in his prime. Nobody is saying that brown will be making any pro bowls. The issue is whether brown is worth the 605K we are paying him. Some posters here are trying to act as if brown is no better or maybe not as good as payton or nash. That's moronic! The guy has given us 1180 yards of offense a season!

    And by the way, i prefer you not refer to me as tide. From now on you will call me mr. analyst! Thank you!
    #66
  7. SEC 330 BIPOLAR

    SEC 330 BIPOLAR jive turkey

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    Ok Mr. Analyst. My grasp of draft value is limited but other 3rd round picks go on to be superstars. I think I already said he is worth his peanuts salary. To me, it's a question of the Titans having a feature back that can carry the load in future years. I'm not trying to hate on Brown. Far from it. I'm just daydreaming about the day when we have a true run threat that starts virtually all the time and puts up sick numbers. I want an Alexander or LT...

    btw- It is my opinion that Nash is an unknown quanity.
    #67
  8. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    FA RBs....better than brown..

    I included what their age will be when the 2006 season begins..

    Alexander-29
    Edge-28
    Deshaun foster-26
    Ahman green-28
    Jamal Lewis-27

    There you go, 2 guys who are out of our price range, 2 other injury prone backs and an ex-con coming off a horrible year.

    Other interesting possibilities?

    Najeh davenport
    La brandon toefield

    Both of these guys are big backs who could replace henry and lighten the load for brown.


    As for the draft it seems unlikely we can get a top back. Only possibility would be to trade down and get williams a potential LT type back or white a potential eddie george type back. Not likely.

    Everyone has opinions and smart assed comments but no solutions. Come on now give us the solution. I told you mine. Try to get the price tage on henry down enough to keep him and for obvious reasons we keep brown. If there is value at RB in the 4th rd we can draft one. A leon washington perhaps or a norwood. The long time feature back that sec bipolar wants will most likely have to be in 2007 draft.

    In the meantime there is a chance that either henry or brown will step up and have a healthy motivated year or both of them can solidly contribute. In the meatime let's address the other needs on this team such as our future franchise QB, a linebacker or 2 and some o-lineman.
    #68
  9. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Would you make this trade?

    Our second rd pick in exchange for the texans top pick in rd 3. We get dominick davis. Would you take that? I'm just asking. The price is probably too high but what price would you pay?.

    I actually like davis right now more than even alexander or edge. Davis is still young enough to have most of his career(he will be 26 in october) ahead of him but he has played long enough to establish a solid track record unlike a draft pick. Plus contract won't be an issue for him. The texans just signed him to a deal that will last through most of his productive playing days at a price tag of about $4M a year.

    So what would you rather have?

    Alexander or edge for 2-3 great years for $10M a year.

    Davis for 4-5 good years at $4M a year

    Travis henry for maybe 2-3 good years(maybe) for $1.6M a year.

    Now there are drawbacks to davis. He has durability issues of his own missing starts in each of his three seasons. That is why he still has not rushed for 1200 yards. Also davis is not a star caliber back like an edge or alexander. His averages for yards per carry or catch are ordinary at 4.1 and 8.3 respectively. He is a solid player but not an impact player. On the positive side he is a nice fit for this offense and is a very good receiver out of the backfield.
    #69
  10. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    A "bad" back is one that shouldn't be starting. Leon Washington is a clone of CB. He runs upright, probably has a little better speed, but never breaks a tackle. I don't really see why you think stats will tell you the whole story. Think about it logically. How many factors go into the running game ? For example...

    1) Our offensive lines are not the same now as they were then.
    2) Our passing game is not the same now as it was then.
    3) We get behind more often now than we did then. This limits the overall carries, but makes for a higher average since the defense will be playing pass.
    4) We realize that CB can't make a 3rd and short conversion, so he doesn't have to worry about that 1 yard carry lowering his average. Similarly, we don't run it in the red zone very often for the same reason. We don't try to run the clock out when we do have a lead as much as we did. Yet more carries that are usually small gains.
    5) We're not a run first offense like we were then. Defenses have no reason to key on our running game.
    6) EG had to take virtually every carry of the game causing greater fatigue and chance for injury. CB only carries half the load most of the time. I would like to see how many games that he had 20+ carries over the past year or two. I bet it's not many...

    And like I said, you're still arguing for nothing. Neither back was all that great. CB is a very good backup and a below average starter. Good for his price tag but still not a solution.
    #70
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