Titans observe WR's during today's Senior Bowl Practice

Huh?

The 'percentage' of hits and misses is based on who IS a hit and WHO is a miss. If you're listing Pro Bowl caliber CB's as busts (Terrence Newman for example), how can anyone take your percentage seriously?

You wanna list the undisputed players to prove your point?

You wanna list the percentage of OG and OC's who are busts in the first rnd?

Gut

 

Here's a list...

OG's and OC's drafted in the first rnd...the last 10 years...

OG
Davin Joseph-started 12 games this yr as a rookie
Logan Mankins-started all games in his 2 career
Shawn Andrews-started all games the last 2 seasons
Kendall Simmons-started 4 out of 5 seaons (injured the other)
Steve Hutchinson-was best OG in the league in 2005
Damien Woody-fulltime starter every year til last year
Alan Faneca-one of the best OG's in the game
Chris Naeole-after his first year, has been a fulltime starter for 9 yrs
Pete Kendall-fulltime starter for 11 years

Any of these guys you think are busts?

Bust percentage=0%

OC
Nick Mangold-excellent OC and already one of the best at his position
Chris Spencer-developed into a fulltime starter in his second season
Jeff Faine-very good OC and fulltime starter for 3 and a half years
Jeff Hartings-fulltime starter for 11 years

Assuming Spencer plays well...bust factor=0%

I put this out to make a point. I can nit pick away your suppositions because they don't take everything into account.

There is no generic 23% bust rate for all positions in the first round. If you did it for each team, I think you'd find some interesting result (because teams draft differently). Even the Titans went through a phase of drafting athletes (Woolfolk, Calico) over football players. Everyone is different and those differences you are not factoring into your generic bust rate.

Gut

 

Busts are opinions. You look at the list and decide yourself. Then look at the list of WR. Since it's a matter of personal opinion, I'll let you decide. I won't list another player simply because if I listed Andre Woolfolk, Woolfolk'sUncle can post that he is not a bust and give reasons such as injury and lack of playing time as reasons. Although I was not including ProBowls as proof that you are not a bust, but the fans other than yourself, coaches and NFL players don't think that Terrence Newman is ProBowl caliber. I think the coaches and players know a little better than us. For me, I don't think you draft a player in the top ten to be a solid player. For instance, Haynesworth is a solid player but fans don't think he has lived up to billing and certainly not worth the 5 mil. cap hit. Why do you think that is? It's because of where he was drafted (16). That is why only first round players have been listed because you expect more of a first round pick. It doesn't matter whether you take my list seriously or not, there is no argument against the original point.

So you list the players and busts. Then see if there is a major difference at positions where the most players are drafted in the first round (DE, CB, WR and even QB). And really, you state that Phillip Buchanan was good in his early years? He's been in the league for only 5 years and is with his third team. When was he good at CB? And you expect me to take that seriously? Or Trung Candidate is not a bust because he shouldn't have been taken in the first round? Now you are GM and scout of an NFL team? It's quite apparent and hindsight is 20/20 that no player that was a bust should have been taken in the first round. That's brilliant. So if you think I am going to try to prove something to someone who is argumentative for argument sake, then I am sorry to disappoint you.

And seriously, why list OG and C when so few are taken in the first round? If you can argue the original argument then do so, if not let's move on.

 

So the Titans should draft an OG or OC in the upcoming draft? And if not, why not?

 

Well...

If it's all a matter of personal opinion, you have no argument.

Please list any of the coaches and players that don't think Terrence Newman is a Pro Bowl caliber CB and provide proof. And I don't know what fans you hang out with but I live in NY and keep up with the Jets and Giants and pretty much every Giants fan, GM, coach and players (Giants) speak exceedingly highly of Newman. And if you've watched him play a lot, he's very good. He was a bit more up and down down the stretch, but he's usually dominant. And if you're referring solely to the fact that he didn't get voted to the Pro Bowl, that hardly keeps him from being a Pro Bowl CALIBER player. Ronde Barber is far from what he used to be and Hall gets burned waaaay too much to be an elite CB. He talks a good game though.

So no fan has ever been able to pick out a mistake a coach or GM has made? Do you wait for Fisher or Reese to say they made a mistake or can you figure them out on your own? Since I'm quite knowledgeable in football, I can make my own judgements quite well thank you. I'd hope you're able to do the same. I could see how if someone didn't have a lot of football knowledge and didn't follow it closely, that they would just rely on what the FO and coaching staff tells them.

Actually it's because we want (and expect) all first rnd players to be dominant for our team. Second, he's a huge dude so they figure he's gotta be able to blow up the run or kill the QB...he's big and quick and strong. And when the D is terrible overall, first they look at guys who don't have good stats...like DT's who don't have a lot of sacks (usually they don't anyway, but a lot of fans don't know that). Then they look at players who are gonna take a lot of cap room. When those players are the same guy, he's gonna receive a ton of criticism. But in reality, you can only judge Haynesworth on his performance on each play in each game.

Can you tell me how many times Albert has pressured the QB? How many times he's controlled his gap effectively? How many times he's forced a runner to go somewhere else leading to a tackle for loss or short gain by someone else? Or how many times he's held up vs the double team? On the flip side, can you tell me how many times he's been blown off the ball or failed to hold up against a double team, or missed a tackle, ect? If you don't know any or much of this stuff, it's very hard to just say he's not a good player because stats for OL and DT's don't tell much of the story of their play. Stats are set up for the glory positions like QB, RB and WR.

How many players do you think get a first rnd grade in a draft? 32? Sorry, it's not nearly that high. Which means a lot of players taken in rnd 1 over the years carry second rnd grades. Also, teams EVERY year reach in the first rnd and take a 2nd rnd graded player. How does this get counted into your argument? It doesn't.

You're correct. Your original argument is meaningless. Please explain how listing 'Super Bowl success percentage at a position' is relevant in anyway? According to your stat, you could just draft 5 WR's in the first rnd and make it to the Super Bowl since they have a success percentage of over 20%....right? I guess the Lions have been following a similar strategy....if Millen could just manage to draft 2 more WR's in the first rnd without being fired, they'd be in the SUPER BOWL!!!

Your next original argument that WR's are just as important as any other position on the field is a little too easy to debate. Please list the top 5 players paid in the NFL....then compare how many WR's vs QB's were drafted #1 overall over the last 10 years. I'll give you a hint...there is only 1 QB and a bunch of QB's!!! No NFL exec, coach, scout or GM would say WR is as important a position as QB (by far the most important position on the field), LT or DE.

I've already pointed out the flaw in your logic as many of these players don't have first rnd grades!

Abouth the same time Napoleon Harris was playing very well...namely when they were beating us in the playoffs! Remember that year? Harris and Buchanon both played very well.

Um....yes. First, he didn't have a first rnd grade, second I've explained that in no draft has a team given out 32 first rnd grades....it doesn't happen. Since they picked last that year, what does that tell you. You like the idea of a first rnd pick, but the reality is what a players grade is vs production. Canidate was a bust anyway...even if he had been taken in the 2nd rnd, but the point is, he didn't have a first rnd grade so he should NOT have been selected in rnd 1.

First, don't make up things I said and then 'dis them. Where did I say no player taken in the first rnd should have been taken in the first rnd? Plenty of players who SHOULD be taken in the first rnd end up busting. I never said otherwise. But there are also players who don't belong in the first rnd who end up busting and those players have no place in your argument.

I don't argue for argument's sake. If I did, I wouldn't porvide you with plenty of points that refute your position! If you choose not to try to defend your position, I understand.

To prove that not all positions have similar bust percentage in round 1. Which original argument are you referring to...you've made several.

Gut

 

Thanks Gut my head was starting to spin

 

Let me explain because you wouldn't be able to find a point if someone pointed it out to you.

1. My response was to Tez who said name me how many first round WR was on SuperBowl team because he was point was drafting WR in the first round was a waste since they don't lead their teams to the SuperBowl. This way this thread is in the WR portion on the Board. So to say that that is meaningless shows to me that either you can't read or the other conclusion.


2. I listed WR and other positions first round picks who made it to the Superbowl only to point out that looking at percentages of first round success at a position would be a horrible way to draft because you have failed picks at all positions.

3. Tez listed all WR chosen in the last 10 years and said there were a lot of busts.

4. I listed busts from the major positions that are chosen in the first round to include QB, RB, WR, DE, DT and OT. I only included the obvious to show that no position in bust proof and once again looking at past failures would be a horrible way to draft. That was the point.

5. I listed CB's since there are as many CBs drafted in the first as WR, as Tez said show many as many CB busts as WR. Now he never listed who was a bust at WR but insists that their were at least 30. I never cared how many and just listed the busts as I see it CB. I know you might want to tie me to that list but it is secondary to me and believe it or not you've proven my point.

6. No one would expect that there would be as many busts at OG and C because everyone knows that if you only have a few drafted the chances for busts are lower. You are right on that. But this eactly where you proved my point. If you use the method of looking at percentage rates of success at WR to proclude you from drafting at that position, then the opposite would be true. In other words, if you used that method, the only players that you would draft would be centers and guards because by looking at the success ratio, they would be can't miss players. Now doesn't that sound flawwed.

And by the way, how can you argue with someone who says that Chris Spencer is not a bust if he plays well. Duh? Or Jeff Faine is right on when Cleveland paid big money to upgrade his *** after two years. I guess you forgot that LeBentley Charles was brought in and Faine is only starting because of that injury. You know a player is drafted in the 1st round for a reason. And because of the cap a first round player will be given an opportunity to start and show they either he can sink or swim. If they can't the team moves on. Woolfolk was given his chance and so was Buchanan. If a team gets rid of you within your rookie contract, guess what. You never played well. Think Lamont Thompson.

And it shows how disingenius you are by listing the OG and for some sake or another missing the names of Jermaine Mayberry, Mo Collins and Matt Stichcomb. At least I listed the full data. Instead you try to prove a point by excluding data. That's very cool. Like I said it's all a matter of opinion and my opinion is your brand of opinion ain't worth my time.

 

1. Wrong.

 

4. Duh, there are busts at any position. The difference is the percentages

5. After reviewing your list, I'm pretty sure it isn't neccesary.

BTW, I'm still waiting on your RB #'s as well, since you insist the %s are the same.

 

It was Visteg.