Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Dr.Awkward, Jan 25, 2007.
They both drop a lot of balls? :grrhee:
Jason Hill and Aundrae Allison could be good mid-rounders. Dallas Baker and Anthony Gonzales as well.
Buster Davis, Jacoby Jones (could be a big sleeper - 6'4'' 210 4.4 speed), Johnie Lee Higgins, and.... Bret Smith!!
Jason Hill would be a good pick in the middle of the draft.
I'll take Brandon Myles (WV) or David Clowney(VT) rounds 4+.
Stop the damn run - rounds 1-3.
Jacoby Jones = our Marques Colston
Yep just like I hope Jarvis Moss makes it to round two because he has a motor on him. But Dallas Baker the TD maker (as mick hubert voice of the gators calls him) would sound nicer with mike keith calling him Dallas Baker the TOUUUUUUUUCCCCCHHHHHHHDOOOOOWWWWWWNNNNNN maker.)
First, if you want to argue a player is a bust, you have to explain what you deem a bust. Is a guy drafted in the top 10 a bust if he ONLY becomes a good player? Is a top 5 guy a bust if he's an all Pro caliber player but doesn't go to many (if any Pro Bowls)? What about a player drafted in the 15-20 range....what's you expectation of them? And how much longevity do they need to not be a bust? What if a player performs at the expected level but hurts his knee and is not the same player...maybe only a decent player. Is he still a bust based on an injury? And to think team, surrounding players and scheme doesn't factor into a players success would be criminal not to address....and yet, I see none of that.
Reason being is the draft is fluid. A person picked at #10 in the first rnd is not gonna be equivalent talent to a guy picked in the same spot in the draft before or the draft after. Why? Because all the players are projected differently by different teams so their own expectations of the player is different. Furthermore, your expectation of a 'top 10' pick is not the same as a team. A team bases their expectation on the draft grade of the player, not WHERE they are picked in the draft...that's for fans to debate...but it is relatively meaningless unless you want to go back and argue over each draft grade for each player which will lead to everyone having different draft grades for the same player.
As far as the original post, WR is easier to evaluate than CB for several reasons. WR's all have the same job...align correctly, run a good pattern, and catch the ball if it comes to you. Yes they have to be cognizant of zones and find the open holes, but this is pretty easy. Also, stats are pretty telling for the success of a WR in a game. It's possible for a WR to have good looking stats but not be a dominant player, but it's unlikely. It's also unlikely that a dominant player will have bad stats unless one of two things is happening...bad QB (can't get him the ball) or poor OL vs D (too much pressure can disrupt the passing offense).
On D however, stats can and frequently are meaningless for CB's. If a CB had 3 INT's, you think he had an awesome day....but maybe 1 was on a hail mary (which he should have knocked down) and the other 2 were on deflected balls by other players. Or he might have 5 tackles in a game, but 4 of them were after getting smoked by the WR down the field.
Take 2 guys....one from this year and one from last year. Both had 10 INT's...pretty darn good for a CB, right? No way can that stat be meaningless to how good they are, right? Well last year Ty Law had 10 INT's but Jets fans and coaches alike didn't think too highly of his play. He gambled a lot, got a bunch of INT's, but got burned a lot and was not stout in run support (made a lot of his tackles down field, even on sweeps towards him). Asante Samuel on the other hand, is drawing comparisons to Champ Bailey he played so well this year. But even still, a lot of his picks came because the D scheme fooled the QB. Yes, that's all him making plays on Marvin Harrison one on one 50 yards down field, but even for him some of his stats are misleading.
The ONLY way to judge CB's is by watching them closely....very closely and having a good knowledge of the game. CB's are also expected to learn several different types of coverages...from press man, bail technique, man off to all the different kinds of zones and zone concepts (in which they usually have to read multiple receivers...not just cover one guy). How a guy learns that is hard to judge...especially since most CB's are better at man coverage or zone coverage, not both. And some guys...like a Marcus McCauley this year (Senior Bowl) are much better at one specific type of coverage like press man but are completely lost in even man off coverage. So the team and scheme he goes to will have a huge amount to do with his success or failure.
Look at our own team. We play mostly zone coverage under Schwartz and yet Reese still drafted predominantly man cover CB's. And then you wonder why a Woolfolk is a bust?
I will paraphrase something Scott Pioli (of the Pats) said in a book I read. He said that if he grades out a player as a first rnd pick and the Colts draft him in the first rnd and he busts, he DOESN'T catch flack for it because maybe in their system he's a bust but might have been a very successful player in the Pats system.
Ricky Williams was a bust? Trung Candidate wasn't a bust, he just shouldn't have been drafted anywhere near that high! LJ Shelton is a bust as a productive starter for the last 7 years? Claiborne, Rudd and Harris were not busts as they all were good players early on in their careers. And if you were a fan of the team back when played the Raiders in the AFC Championship game I think, no one was calling Harris or Buchanon or Charles Woodson busts back then!
And since you think every position has the same percentage of busts, why don't you mention what the bust percentage is for OG in the first rnd?
Woolfolk was mid-late first to early second guy. here was also a dearth of good CB prospects in that draft (meaning guys are usually gonna get taken a little on the early side. Only Newman and Trufant were rated higher than Woolfolk with Asumoga close. Tillman was graded as a 2nd rndr. Asante Samuel had a 3rd rnd grade.
Mathis was seen mostly as a FS prospect (which usually back then meant 2nd rnd) and graded out as a second rndr. For a guy his size, his change of direction skills (cone, shuttle) hurt his draft stock.
Woolfolk wasn't really a reach, but Floyd frequently wasn't on the same page as the coaching staff (taking man cb's for our zone scheme). I understand why he chose Woolfolk there (highest grade on the draft board), but some teams don't grade athletes higher than football players (if you know what I mean). BTW, Woolfolk also had a high wonderlic score for a CB so obviously they thought they could teach him the zone coverages.
Chad Scott has been a starter for the Steelers in 6 of his 7 seasons there and now (past his prime) is a backup on the Pats. Is he a bust for ONLY having a solid career? Fernando Bryant was a pretty good player early in his career. Same with Starks, Buchanon and Allen. Carlos Rogers has only been in the league since '05 and Jammer is a starter on a top D (who they are not looking to replace).
Is it April Fools day? No? Hmmmm...Walt Harris has been a solid starter in this league for 11 years. Guys who can't play don't start for 11 years straight. As serviceable as Hill?
Shawn Springs is a Pro Bowl caliber CB or was one early in his career. He's been hurt by injuries, but the Skins brought him in to be a top CB. Hill won't ever get to the level he's played at. Winfield is a highly underrated CB in this league. In fact he's had 80+ tackles in 5 of his 8 seasons. Also, the Jets were all set to sign him to a big contract when the Vikes gave him an offer he couldn't refuse. We'll see how many teams are shelling out big bucks for Hill 2 years from now. Charles Woodson was one of the top CB's when he came into the league but a foot injury seriously damaged his career (robbing him of a few steps of speed). He wasn't a bust and no one will be afraid to throw at Hill. And Newman is arguably the best CB in the NFC right now. He's excellent. Hill is not. And that's not a knock on Hill, it's your comparisons!
How come Carlos Rogers has been in the league for 2 years (and labeled a bust) but Trufant gets more time for evaluation after being in the league for 4 years? Trufant had a good start his first 2 seasons but has not looked like a dominant player the last 2 years. Dunta Robinson had a good start too but has tailed off as well. Pacman had a rough first year but has been excellent this year. Why isn't Deangelo Hall on this list? He talks bigger than his play. He's pretty good, but not close to Newman.
Many people feel Champ Bailey is overrated and Hall is definitely overrated. Hall wouldn't be in my top 10 of CB's in this league...maybe top 15.
Once again, it comes back to the original argument and that is that there are the same percentages of hits and misses at each position. The nit picking thing is fine but it applies to the WR position as well. I am not here to defend my position of who I feel is a bust because that's irrelevant to the point. I could go through Tez's list of WR's and explain why one is or is not a bust. That would be pretty silly because all is a matter or opinion. And let me state that message boards were created for opinions. So, if you take out the WR's and CB's that are questionable and go with the ones that there is no argument about, the percentages would still be the same.
And you know, you are right. I went through the OG's drafted from 1996-2005 and there were not nearly as many busts. So that settles it. Since the bust percentage is so low at OG, we should take a OG in the first round. You see that logic is just as flawed as saying you stay away from a position because of bust percentages.
The fact is there ar so many WR's taken in the first round because it is an impact position. It allows your offense to be explosive and dominant even. There are so few guards taken in the first because that is not an impact position and tackles who don't have quick feet can be moved to guard, ie. Olsen and Pillar. But teams will always take a chance on an potentially explosive player at the WR position. I am not advocating any position, just you don't make decision in the draft like that. You scout, evaluate, trust you gut and take a player that you believe will have an impact, regardless of the position.
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