Thom's First-Round Mock--comments appreciated

There are two types of mock drafts: ones where you try to predict who a team WILL take, and ones where you indicate who YOU think a team should take and where, roughly, you think players should go. This is the latter: I'm putting myself in place of these teams' GMs.

I don't take criticisms personally and invite vigorous debate.

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1. Carolina Panthers

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
6'4", 211 lbs.

The Panthers' defense looks pretty bad on paper until you look at the other side of the ledger line: that defense had to contend with an offense that averaged 12 PPG and turned the ball over with reckless abandon. The knee-jerk reaction to that fact is to draft a new QB; but none of the "top" QBs in this draft is rated as anything close to a sure thing. And the QBs on the Panthers' roster are being judged on their production with a slew of injuries and no WRs capable of surpassing 600 yards. Marty Hurney has tried to address the position with big targets like Dwayne Jarrett, Brandon LaFell, Keyshawn Johnson, and the like for years—to no avail. And Steve Smith's increasing injuries and decreasing production make the position that much more perilous going forward.

Enter A.J. Green. He has consistently been rated one of the top players in this draft; some even say he is actually the best player in the draft. As WRs go, he's as safe a pick as we've seen in a while: big, hands like glue, and already a polished route-runner. His measurables are eye-popping; his production is stellar. He improves the Panthers' passing offense immediately, takes pressure off their running game (which should return to at least decent form with Jeff Otah's return), and gives the Panthers a chance to really evaluate Clausen for another year. If they still need QB help, they get a much better QB class next year to choose from, or they can dip into free agency.

True, first-round WRs have a high bust rate--but not nearly as high as DTs, and not with nearly as much damage to the team as a first-round QB's failure. Green is, against normal draft logic, the safest pick for the Panthers.


2. Denver Broncos

Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
6'3", 319 lbs.

Nick Fairley is a tempting 4-3 DT prospect, but Dareus is the safer pick. He has a longer success record, is better against the run, and most importantly for John Fox's defensive scheme, beefier. The Broncos need to shore up their run defense badly, and Dareus is the guy to do it.


3. Buffalo Bills

Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
6'4", 291 lbs.

On paper the Bills run a "hybrid" defense; in practice, I don't think they know what they are running. What is certain is that is isn't stopping the run (almost 170 YPG last season) or getting to the QB (only 27 sacks last year). While Von Miller is a tempting OLB prospect, he could also be the next Aaron Maybin; and a secondary player like Patrick Peterson doesn't really address the real problems the Bills have up front. They can't pass up on an elite D-line prospect.

I think Fairley can play the 5-technique well with some coaching, but the Bills may well decide to run more four-man fronts with him in the mix. However they use him he is an instant upgrade over the likes of Dwan Edwards and Alex Carrington.


4. Cincinnati Bengals

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
6'5", 248 lbs.

Do I think Cam Newton is the best QB in this draft? Not really. Do I think the Bengals are the most desperate team for a QB this early? Absolutely: Carson Palmer is as good as gone, they have no one even close to a starter behind him, and no self-respecting free agent will walk into that mess. And do I think Newton puts more butts in the seats than Gabbert, even long-suffering Bengals fans' butts? Yes.

Of all the teams picking high in the draft, the Bengals are the most screwed without Newton and have the least to lose by whiffing on him.


5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
6'3", 246 lbs.

The Cardinals have an awful QB situation like the Bengals, but a much better set of coaches, receivers, and other talent with which to attract a veteran. They'll address their sorry defense instead, at its weakest point: OLB. Miller has the kind of playmaking ability the Cardinals missed badly up front this year, and their big, talented D-line will leave him open to make the kind of explosive plays he was known for in college.


6. Cleveland Browns

Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
6'4", 265 lbs.

The Browns have discussed going to a 4-3 defense, but Quinn addresses their woeful pass-rush in either system or in a hybrid. His upside and measureables are off the charts, although the lack of football in 2010 has some teams asking too many questions. Well, teams did the same with Joe Haden last year; that didn't scare the Browns off, to their benefit. Julio Jones is also tempting here, but Mike Holmgren knows to build from the inside out, so DE is the bigger priority.

7. San Francisco 49ers

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
6'4", 234 lbs.

Despite his brief flirtation with Alex Smith, it's hard to believe John Harbaugh doesn't want to clean house and start over at the QB position. Opinions are mixed on Gabbert, but if Harbaugh thinks he's coachable (and his attitude and purported work ethic suggest he is), he's worth the pick here.


8. Tennessee Titans

Patrick Peterson, CB/S, LSU
6', 219 lbs.

I'm pretty well convinced that one of the top-tier prospects will be here for us, although Peterson would be a dream come true. Our secondary just hasn't held up in coverage the past couple of years: too many explosive plays, too many breakdowns. Peterson solves multiple positions for us right away: he can play safety if we need him to (bye, Hope), nickelback, and eventually replace Finnegan at corner; or we could put him at the #2 corner spot and move Verner to the nickel. He's also an explosive special teamer.

Again, maybe I'm being optimistic, but suffice it to say we're going to be happy on draft day no matter what.


9. Dallas Cowboys

Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
6'7", 314 lbs.

When I watch the Cowboys' offensive line, I think "tentative." There's no nastiness, no real desire, just a bunch of old guys collecting their paychecks. Enter Carimi, the very brash, very talented tackle from the Badgers. He's a monster run-blocker with adequate and improvable pass-blocking skills. He can play RT right away, and the team can leave off the decision of where to play him and Doug Free going foward. He's a breath of fresh air on a very stale O-line.


10. Washington Redskins

J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
6'5", 290 lbs.

The Redskins have pretty decent players in their back seven, but they just don't have the guys up front to play the 3-4. Watt projects as a consistent 5-technique in the 3-4: he is a rock against the run and gets a good push in the passing game. He'll open up more opportunities from guys like Orakpo and Fletcher to make plays.


11. Houston Texans

Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
6', 206 lbs.

Whatever they think of Kareem Jackson, the Texans can't think the rest of their secondary is anywhere near acceptable. A lot of teams have had good success in recent years pairing up two high-round corners, so this pick can be justified easily despite Jackson's presence. Amukamara really deserves to go higher than this spot, but team needs have him slipping here in several mocks. He's a legitimate lockdown corner, and I'd frankly like to see him in a Titans uniform if we can't get Peterson.


12. Minnesota Vikings

Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
6'1", 303 lbs.

I'm surprised how low Paea is going in many mocks. I was high on his ability to collapse the pocket and his persistent pursuit before the Combine, and his record-setting bench press puts a measurable to the incredible strength and leverage he shows on tape.

The Vikings' defense has long been predicated on dominant run defense. But the "Williams Wall" is crumbling with age, and their suspensions will likely eat into the Vikings' defense badly next year. Paea helps rebuild the "wall" and keeps defenses from fully focusing on formidable outside rush of Jared Allen and Ray Edwards.


13. Detroit Lions

Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
6'3", 280 lbs.

I see Bowers dropping like a rock in this draft: the knee injury, the disastrous Pro Day, the lack of burst, all big screaming red flags. But he does have two things Jim Schwartz likes: a high motor and football intelligence. With Cliff Avril and KVB up front, the Lions can afford to let Bowers get healthy and to coach him up for a while before plugging him in at LDE in the future.


14. St. Louis Rams

Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
6'3", 220 lbs.

Too hard not to draw this line. The Rams' receiver corps actually isn't bad, but they're all small and not too fast overall. Adding a true #1 to the mix makes Mark Clayton, Danny Amendola, and the rest even better and allows Josh McDaniels to get aggressive and creative. Spags would probably prefer defense, but realistically Jones is the best player around by far.


15. Miami Dolphins

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
5'9", 215 lbs.

O-line help would be nice, but there are no interior line prospects worth this pick. Instead the Dolphins address their lagging offense by replacing the aging Brown and Williams with the former Heisman winner. Ingram's burst, low center of gravity, and vision are top-notch. His injuries last year are a little concerning, but he also won't be the only RB the Dolphins take in this draft, so he won't be expected to shoulder too heavy a load.


16. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cameron Jordan, DE, California
6'4", 287 lbs.

I hate to see the Jags get one of the steals of the draft, but they'll get either Jordan or Kerrigan here, and God bless them for it. The only reason Jordan would even last this long is unparallel team needs ahead of this spot. He's a total force on the outside with a nonstop motor and a variety of moves. He provides an instant improvement over the Jags' weak pass-rush.


17. New England Patriots

Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
6'7", 311 lbs.

A versatile O-lineman who impressed at the Senior Bowl, Castonzo and Sebastian Vollmer would make for a formidable tackle duo for the Patriots for several years. I personally like Castonzo a lot better than Tyron Smith, and I frankly think most teams will too despite the draft buzz around him.


18. San Diego Chargers

Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
6'4", 267 lbs.

I'm a huge Ryan Kerrigan fan, but he's a little hard to place in a system. The Chargers tend to value college production very highly, and Kerrigan has lots of it. He has been described as a "limited athlete," a label I just plain don't get from watching him. He certainly has the goods to play the Chargers' style of 3-4 and provides a serious threat opposite Shaun Phillips.


19. New York Giants

Tyron Smith, OT, USC
6'5", 307 lbs.

I'm not as down on the Giants' O-line as most people (their blocking stats were among the best in the league last year), but they are definitely old and injury-prone at all five spots and need youth and depth desperately. Smith played RT in college and projects as a LT in the NFL, so he provides a valuable swing tackle in the short term and a starter at one spot or the other in the long-term.


20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
5'10", 191 lbs.

Corner was a long-term need for the Bucs already, but Aqib Talib's legal trouble makes it a short-term need, too. Harris can replace Talib now if necessary, or Ronde Barber in the long-term; and in the meantime makes for a mean nickel corner in a pass-happy division.


21. Kansas City Chiefs

Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
6'3", 334 lbs.

Building a huge defensive front is a big cog in Scott Pioli's plan, and Taylor fits the bill nicely. He's a huge, penetrating nose tackle reminiscent of Vince Wilfork. Ron Edwards played the nose admirably last year, but Taylor is the long-term solution.


22. Indianapolis Colts

Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
6'8", 319 lbs.

The Colts need better talent on the O-line regardless of the quality of their coaching. Solder is an excellent run-blocker and has incredible agility for his height, but he will need some time to develop into an elite pass-blocker. Till then he provides a major upgrade at either LT or RT.


23. Philadelphia Eagles

Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
6'2", 298 lbs.

New defensive coordinator Juan Castillo says he wants to simplify the Eagles' system, which means less zone-blitzing and more reliance on front-four pressure. Liuget is possibly the most "active" DT on the tapes I've watched: he just seems to be in the mix on every defensive play. He's a good value in a draft deep in D-linemen.


24. New Orleans Saints

Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
6'3", 281 lbs.

Medical red flags have never stopped the Saints from taking a productive player. Clayborn is one of those guys that pops out at you on tape. The Saints like guys who make big plays, and he gives them a real defensive playmaker.


25. Seattle Seahawks

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
6'6", 259 lbs.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks. They may be tempted to add a QB, but I don't consider Mallet or Locker worth the pick. They had so many injuries last year on defense that it is hard to evaluate their depth. I went with a player who has fallen off the radar in most mocks but who remains the best at his position in the draft in Rudolph. He gives whatever QB the Seahawks go with a good safety blanket and opens the rest of the field up for Mike Williams and Golden Tate.


26. Baltimore Ravens

Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
6'2", 211 lbs.

Smith's iness earned him the dreaded "character concern" flag in pre-draft interviews. That flag has rarely stopped the Ravens from taking the best player on the board. Smith looks like a young Chris McAlister to me: big, rangy, a great man-to-man player. The Ravens' strong locker room will corral any "issues" he has, and he'll improve a secondary with a lot of holes.


27. Atlanta Falcons

Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
6'4", 263 lbs.

Behind John Abraham, the Falcons are woeful at defensive end, and his age and injury history puts DE at the top of their list of needs. Smith is a solid pass-rusher if not a spectacular one, and his draft grade makes him a solid pick here.


28. New England Patriots

Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia

The Patriots just don't have that one pass-rusher who scares you on every down, let alone the two or three they have boasted in the past. Enter Houston, a productive and athletic college DE with the athleticism to make the transition to OLB. He will be raw, but his potential with Bellichek's tutelage is limitless.


29. Chicago Bears

Stefan Wisniewski, C, Penn State

The Bears would probably rather have a tackle here, but Sherrod and Love are both reaches. I like Wisniewski a LOT more than Pouncey as an interior lineman, especially as a true Center. He'll slide in for the over-the-hill Olin Kreutz and improve their run and pass-blocking immediately.


30. New York Jets

Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple
6'4", 315 lbs.

With Shaun Ellis' persistent injuries, the Jets are going to need a powerful 5-technique sooner than later. Wilkerson is a bit of a project IMO, but his raw talent is undeniable. He is stout and holds the line of scrimmage well, and his never-give-up attitude speaks well for him on tape.


31. Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Pouncey, G, Florida

Again, I don't like Mike Pouncey as a center. But as a guard next to his twin brother, he was quite formidable. O-line play is largely about sync and togetherness. You don't get much more in-sync than twins who have played together for years.


32. Green Bay Packers

Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
6', 227 lbs.

Ryan Grant's injury means the Packers need a new every-down back, and I don't think James Starks is it. LeShoure has a battering-ram build, decent blocking ability (and room to grow in that area), and great instincts that led him to excel on a below-average Illinois team. LeShoure is a stud in an otherwise poor RB class.

 

Thanks for reading! One quick response though:

 

Yeah, hence why I go with who I would pick and not who the actual team picks. In the past I've been able to guess picks 1-7 up close to draft day, but after that it just falls the heck apart.

I KNOW the A.J. Green pick probably won't happen in real life--but I firmly believe it should for the reasons I said out above. And while I don't think it's a stretch that the first seven teams would pick someone besides Peterson, if he's still there at 6 or 7 someone like Dallas or Houston will probably trade up for him.

 

Wilkerson is probably the most consistent DT I've seen on tape. His highlight plays are rare, but the guy's working just as hard in the fourth quarter as the first. He may go at 12 instead of Paea--but I still like Paea more.

My note on Liuget after watching him from the Ohio State game: "He's in the backfield on nearly every play, and his teammates just plain don't take advantage (including Martez Wilson)."