The "put up or shut up" thread

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Carpy, Apr 28, 2008.

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  1. Alpha-Centuri

    Alpha-Centuri Where art thou, VY?

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    1. Chris Johnson - RB
    2. Earl Bennett - WR
    3. Dan Connor - LB

    ***Packaged 4,5, and to get back in the 3rd.
    3. Chris Ellis - DE
    4. Mario Manningham - WR
    4. Jacob Tamme - TE
    7. William Hayes - DE (He prolly woulda been here)

    Anyway, I don't think our draft was that bad. Very surprising, but not bad. It could be a wholeeee lot worse.
    #11
  2. Carpy

    Carpy Disgruntled foreign veteran

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    bump - Anyone else?

    *cough* Gut *cough*
    #12
  3. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Here's some cough medicine...

    A little explanation. First, I would have a draft in which I traded my 1st rnd pick (and perhaps more) for Jared Allen or Roy Williams. However, I'd have to redo our free agency also to make this all make sense but that seems like a lot more work than Im willing to do right now...

    The next 2 drafts are not too different with 1 notable exception. You'll notice in 1 I trade back into rnd 2 to get Chris Johnson at pick x. You could argue that he wouldn't be there (so move on to the other draft if that is what you believe) but you could also argue that he would last til Ray Rice got picked...the next scatback selected.

    You'll also notice I do quite a lot of maneuvering. Every trade was done using the trade value chart so in terms of value traded, it is realistic.

    Things I kept in mind for these drafts...Amano is not an ideal starter and I need more OL depth and quality. Could use a backup center who could develop into a starter. Need a playmaking WR and not just another guy we already have unless it's late rnd value. Wes Welker type may be easiest to get in terms of value for production. Offense needs another plamaker to catch the ball beside Crumpler. Mid-late rnd all around TE or late rnd good blocker. Could use a speed RB (preferably with starter potential due to White being frequently out of shape and legal issues). Could use a backup developmental QB to replace Collins eventually...preferably with VY-lite skills. Could use DT help and potentially a franchise type if Haynesworth is not signed for the long haul. Could really use a dominant pass rusher opposite KVB and Kearse is up there in age and coming off injury plagued seasons. Could use a developmental OLB. Could use a standout CB but could settle for a good nickel. Always keep an eye out for ST players and explosive speed. Don't over draft!

    Starting picks
    24(1)
    54(2)
    85(3)
    103(4)
    126(4)
    134(4) this pick cant be traded since its a compensatory pick
    229(7)

    Here's Draft 1 with CJ still available...

    Pick
    24...to get up to pick 5 (for Dorsey) or 6 for Gholston is just too far. Other players I liked were too far to reach for like Rodgers-Cromartie. With about 12 players I like here with all 1st/2nd rnd value...I elect to trade way down and see how the draft progresses. I will trade back up if my pool of players I like diminshes quickly. I will still end up with value for trading down AND have to play my pick less money. I trade down to pick 40 (rnd 2) and aquire an additional 3rd rnd pick (70).

    40...only a few of my pool I want has been selected so I'm in good shape. Ive lost a CB and DE and the WR's have started coming off...but I think I can gamble and drop back a few more spots. With 8 players I really like still available, I trade down 5 spots to pick 45 adding a 4th rnd pick (127). At the moment I have 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 4 4ths and a 7th.

    45 WR DeSean Jackson...a few offensive plamakers I want are still available as are 2 DE's I like. But the run on wr's makes me think Jackson won't last much longer. With 2 rb's and 2 de's I like still there...I'll probably need to move up to get one but I'll have to wait a few picks to lower the cost and hope they drop a bit.>>>DeSean Jackson is a Wes Welker type who could be a dangerous return man. At the same time, he's a nearly uncoverable slot guy who can come in on 3rd down, catch a 5 yd pass and get YAC for the first down. Wes Welker with more speed. Call Vince and tell him the good news!

    50 DE Quentin Groves...I feel like the players I want won't last much longer and I can make it here for a decent price. I give up pick 127 (4) to move from 54 to 50 and also get back pick 219 (7th). Now I'll see if the rb's I want drop...again, I'll have to wait a few picks and this will be a much longer jump.>>>Groves has all the talent in the world as a pass rusher. He should be able to help on pass downs and develop under Kearse. Call Washburn and tell him he's got a new 'toy!'

    55 RB Chris Johnson...I don't expect these 2 RB's to last much longer and I have the ammo to get here and still have mid rnd picks. I trade up giving up picks 70 (3rd) and 85(3rd) for 55 (2nd) and 120 (4th).>>>I take Johnson over Rice. Johnson gives me a playmaker with homerun potential. Since I'm running a 2 back system, I need CJ for explosion. If I felt I need to replace White, I would have selected Rice. Call Dinger and tell him to start working up some creativity. Her's got plenty of unique talent on offense with explosive ability. I have gotten VY weapons and the offense playmakers.

    103 OL Mike McGlynn...I prefer to pick towards the beginning of rnds (to get falling talent) than the middle or end of rnds and this is why...McGlynn is a nice OL prospect who can play multiple positions and develop. I had him as a 3rd/4th rnd prospect. Good depth. Someone call Munchak!

    114 DT Dre Moore....I move up to hopefully get 1 of 3 players and Moore is still there at this pick. So I package 120(4th) and 126(4th) for 114(4th) and 144(5th).>>>Moore is an excellent DT and one I expected to go in rnd 3. Washburn will have his work cut out for him with very talented players who need to learn the phrases...bring it on every play, great motor, work ethic!

    134 DT Carlton Powell....can you ever have too many good DT's? I like players who anchor excellent college defenses. For one thing, they expect to win! And attitude like that is gold! And I think Powell is well worth the value here.

    144 OC Steven Justice...I like Justice. He'll need to get significantly stronger, but his technique is excellent and he has good footwork. Adding muscle should be easy. At worst a backup player but I expect he might become our starter down the road.

    208 DE Brian Johnston...having addressed my primary needs (playmakers on offense, top notch pass rusher and good depth at OL and DL) I take the player with perhaps the most upside. Since Groves can flash dominance and then disappear for stretches, it might be helpful to have another good pass rusher to give him competition and to give us another chance at getting a great one. Washburn will be BUSY!!!

    Final draft list
    WR DeSean Jackson (45)
    DE Quentin Groves (50)
    RB Chris Johnson (55)
    OL Mike McGlynn (103)
    DT Dre Moore (114)
    DT Carlton Powell (134)
    OC Steve Justice (144)
    DE Brian Johnston (208)

    UDFA's
    Vince Hall, ILB
    Kris Kasparek, blocking TE, 6’7, 274, 4.86
    Adarius Bowman, WR, 6’3, 223, 4.74
    Brandon Ogletree, OLB, 6’3, 227, 4.54
    Davanzo Tate, CB, 5’10, 186, 4.34
    Matthew Harper, FS, 6’0, 173, 4.59
    Mike Dragosavich, P, 6’6, 212, 4.85

    Hall is an all out hustle/heart player who would be all world if his athleticism was better. He'll be a nice backup at worse. Kasparek is a mammoth TE who's a very good blocker. At 6'7 and 274, he's bigger than most DE's left alone LB's. Bowman is a gamble to make the roster. We have a plethora of WR's but he's a guy I'd take a chance on with his size and ability. Ogltree is a nice backup OLB and special teamer. Tate is a nice nickel CB with some skills. Harper is really an excellent special teams player who could find a role there and as a backup FS. With Hentrich perhaps retiring, it's cost effective to bring in an excellent college punter. If he can handle it, it would save us some nice cap room for awhile.
    #13
  4. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    1) Chris Johnson

    2) Terrence Wheatley - CB (I think would have been perfect to replace Pac at CB; know he was on our board, but Patriots took him ultra-high)

    3) Red Bryant - DT

    4a) William Hayes - DE (I like this pick)

    4b) Lavelle Hawkins - WR

    4c) Stanford Keglar - LB (maybe Jonathan Goff)

    7) Mike Merritt - TE
    #14
  5. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    Gut not playing fair.
    #15
  6. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Second draft...without CJ available...

    Second draft...without CJ available in rnd 2. While in reality that would mean another player was available, trying to predict who that would have been is impossible so we'll forgo that luxury.

    Starting picks
    24(1)
    54(2)
    85(3)
    103(4)
    126(4)
    134(4) this pick cant be traded since its a compensatory pick
    229(7)

    If my trades would have been the sameas the above draft, I dont re-explain them here....just the picks. You can always look through the 'book' above to see how I got there...

    Pick
    45 WR DeSean Jackson

    50 DE Quentin Groves

    70 WR Earl Bennett...Bennett is too good to pass up here. He's an excellent blocker and go over the middle guy. Reminds me a bit of Hines Ward. This is a perfect fit for our offense. Looks like we will be re-tooling the WR's on the roster. But with Jackson and Bennett, we have a great 1-2 combo to develop and help VY out.

    75 DT Pat Sims...In the middle rnds, I like to grab OL and DL depth and or talent. Sims is one of the best DT's in the draft...when he's firing on all cylinders. He could be another Haynesworth type who will make Washburn lose more hair, but he could be a steal in this draft if he booms (instead of busts). A gamble but one worth taking I think. BTW, I traded up giving up picks 85 and 126 for 75 and 136.

    103 OL Mike McGlynn

    136 OC Steven Justice

    208 DE Brian Johnston

    Final draft list
    WR DeSean Jackson 45
    DE Quentin Groves 50
    WR Earl Bennett 70
    DT Pat Sims at 75
    OL Mike McGlynn 103
    DT Carlton Powell 134
    OC Steven Justice 136
    DE Brian Johnston 208

    I got the most dynamic WR in the draft. One of the most talented pass rushers (though he'll need to get a better motor) at DE. A Hines Ward type WR, one of the most talented DT's, an excellent OL prospect at OC/OG/RT another good run stuffing and active DT, a good developmental OC and a nice late round explosive pass rusher. Add the UDFA's below and I'd be very happy going into camp with these guys.

    UDFA's
    Vince Hall, ILB
    Kris Kasparek, blocking TE, 6’7, 274, 4.86
    Adarius Bowman, WR, 6’3, 223, 4.74
    Brandon Ogletree, OLB, 6’3, 227, 4.54
    Davanzo Tate, CB, 5’10, 186, 4.34
    Matthew Harper, FS, 6’0, 173, 4.59
    Mike Dragosavich, P, 6’6, 212, 4.85

    Note: Because no change of pace RB was aquired, I would look for a good UDFA that would fit the bill...most likely I'd be watching the waiver wires, inquire about somone I could pick up cheaply or wait til June 1 for cuts.
    #16
  7. Carpy

    Carpy Disgruntled foreign veteran

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    Gut - Surely someone who writes that much has mastered the art of reading.

    Presume no-one will trade with you because you have smelly feet.

    Presume that the picks you have available to you are the exact picks that the Titans used

    And presume that every pick had unfolded exactly as it did on draft day.

    Who do you pick at each of the Titans selections?
    #17
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  8. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    Your method gives the Titans a distinct advantage...they took the players they wanted WHERE they wanted. Now you are preventing me from doing the same...

    Furthermore, if I take a different player in rnd one, I'd have one more player available to me in rnd 2 and quite possibly it would be CJ (though we can all argue forever whether he would or would not have been there). Again, advantage Titans since they knew every single player available and I (assuming I don't make the exact same picks) won't.

    picks
    24 (1st) WR DeSean Jackson - There are about 5 players I'd consider here but this is a little high for all of them. I chose Jackson for 3 reasons. First, he and CJ are the most dynamic offensive playmakers with homerun ability. Second, Jackson is an excellent returner. And third, he could be the next Steve Smith. In the meantime he could be the next Wes Welker with more speed. Think how many hitches, swirl route and wr screens Welker turned into first downs and nice yardage....

    54 (2nd) RB Chris Johnson - the argument for him being here is that no similar type of back was drafted til after our pick. For those that argue he wouldn't be there...see alternate draft below.

    85 (3rd) DE/OLB Cliff Avril...he's atweener who can rush the passer and has good size and speed 250+lbs and 4.51. He could help out immediately with situational pass rushing. If he can bulk up a bit, could become a nice pass rusher opposite KVB. If not, he could become the heir apparent at OLB for Bulluck.

    103 (4th) OL Mike McGlynn - Seems to be good at playing almost all of the OL positions. Could compete with Amano for a starting role as well as backup all spots and could be our next OC. Lots of options.

    126 (4th) WR Keenan Burton - I would have preferred grabbing Bennet in rnd 3, but Burton is Bennett-lite. I also don't like this slot but since I can't trade out, Burton is good value eventhough I have a major log jam at WR.

    134 (4th) OC Steven Justice - this is too high for Justice, but he has a lot of upside at OC and really infuses some new depth at OL. He could be our next starting OC in a year or 2. I like Powell (DT) here too. Clearly I would have made a move to try and get both.

    229 (7th) TE Kris Kasparek - Not much left except to grab a TE with Kasparek's extreme size and good blocking ability. I've basically added a tackle who can catch the ball.

    WR DeSean Jackson
    RB Chris Johnson
    DE/OLB Cliff Avril
    OL Mike McGlynn
    WR Keenan Burton
    OC Steven Justice
    TE Kris Kasparek

    If CJ isn't there in rnd 2, substitute DT Pat Sims for him. Sims reminds me a lot of Big Al...sometimes the motor's not running, but when it is...look out!!!

    WR DeSean Jackson
    DT Pat Sims
    De/OLB Cliff Avril
    OL Mike McGlynn
    WR Keenan Burton
    OC Steven Justice
    TE Kris Kasparek

    Well, not my best effort, but not bad considering where I was forced to pick.

    Gut
    #18
  9. Carpy

    Carpy Disgruntled foreign veteran

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    But you can't presume with any certainty that you would have been able to trade down. What if Chicago don't want to trade back-up. You've got 2 minutes left on the clock and the Bears are still only offering you a 2nd and a 4th. (45 and 120)

    Surely you're not going to take less than market value?
    #19
  10. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    I can presume anything that's reasonable. We can argue that there would be several trading partners or none. Or that some are offering less than 'normal' value. I could also therefore argue I could get MORE value as well. But to keep things from getting out of hand, I made trades which I felt were reasonable, but I was aggressive in moving around. We have seen many teams make these kinds of moves and frequently get more back for dropping so far out of rnd 1...but I played it conservatively in terms of value.

    As far as your scenario...are you talking about me trading down from 40 to 45 and them giving me pick 120? I'd take that no problem. That's more than market value. In my scenario I was more conservative and got back a lesser 4th rnd pick (pick 127). But to answer the question I think you meant to ask, if a team is offering lesser value, there are many ways to make up the difference...easiest being add a pick next year that's makes up the difference. I also don't have only one trading partner. I might get above market value at another spot and below at others...it just depends on who's offering what where. And there would be times where I'd take less than market value...though it'd be rare.

    Gut
    #20
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