The Big Trade We Will Make This Offseason, if any..

Um...

If you were the Detroit Lions, would YOU take Scaife and Ball (Scaife would need a long term contract and may want more than a rebuilding team wants to spend and Ball is just a backup with back problems). Would you rather have Scaife and Ball over Hakeem Nicks...or Connor Barwin...or Darius Butler...?

No way do we get basically a first rnd pick for a nice starting TE. Ball has no value in terms of a high draft pick. Until or unless Scaife is signed to a long term deal, no one is gonna give a lot of value to him. And even then, it's not like he's Tony Gonzalez...we'd be lucky to get a bottom 3rd for Scaife....more like a 4th.

I'd be surprised if Barwin is there at 62. With his athleticism, he might be the most athletic TE in the draft, but could also be a good DE or an outstanding OLB. I don't see him being there at the end of rnd 2.

Why would you draft 2 DT's? I see why Mitchell (although his own coaches don't think he's a good run defender) for size, but why Gilbert? The 3 we have are very similar to him...

I think Ian Johnson will go earlier.

Not bad though! I like Nicks, don't think we could get Barwin there, like Butler, don't like Martin. Outside of Dockery, you haven't addressed Mawae probably leaving after this year and Amano being a free agent. Harris can't play 2 spots...

Gut

 

Good points, Gut. I answered some of them about Detroit in the other thread. I got all befuddled when I was thinking of the 2005 trade in the 2nd with them. Thing is, I forgot, we traded down 4 spots to get Roos, and got nicely overpaid for it with their 4th round pick. They traded up to get Shaun Cody.

Anyway, I said would play serious, but first would acquire Holt. I realize he is in Jacksonville today and may not make it out. (Hope we didn't offend him. Eesh. But oh well.)

Get Holt. Then trade LenDale, Gage and Ball to Detroit for #33. Yes, they've got Kevin Smith, but could use LenDale. Three potential starters there.

I think Ian Johnson will go earlier, too, but not many agree with me, so I slid him in late.

As far as DTs? Yeah, Haye was DE in college, we got Brown, Jones, Ball, who can all go outside in, inside out. Kearse, Ball, Brown, Vickerson, KVB are all UFAs next year. Having these guys who can go either way, you can decide, eh, maybe Gilbert or Jones would ultimately end up as a run-stuffing DE. I'm already guessing Brown's going to be allowed to walk this time. Mitchell, I would end up stashing on the PS, probably. It's what I would anticipate, and I don't think his rep would prevent the Titans from retaining him.

As far as the O-Line. Yeah, I'd be highly tempted to take Alex Mack for that very reason at #30. But on the other hand, he doesn't seem ready to go on to the NFLPA full-time, and I don't think the Titans want to send him out like that. When we had training camp and preseason last year, I thought a few of our PS O-lineman showed they were about ready. In particular, I'm hoping Jason Murphy, maybe even Fernando Velasco, makes the 53 this year. Harris will take over for Mawae unless we draft a better player. He will probably overtake Amano this year. After this year, Murphy could replace Amano should they decide to let him go.

Yeah, agreed about Barwin, though. Probably not going to make it to #62, but you never know. I advocate taking him somewhere because I think the Titans can afford to wait three years for him to develop, whereas other teams might not be able to be as patient.

Mayock was talking about Barwin a couple of nights ago and was laughing looking off camera, saying he could go late to a team in one who had an awesome d-line coach who could afford to take things slow. It sounded like it could have easily been us. Giants and Steelers came to mind, but they're probably looking in other areas first, I would suspect.

 

Well...

The problem is, a player like Scaife or White don't have much value because they're on 1 yr contracts. During the draft, you don't have the time to find out if White or Scaife would accept a long term deal cuz you only have a few minutes. If the Titans were gonna make a deal like that, it'd have to be before the draft so the trading team could work out long term deals with Scaife and or White. The other problem is...there are many TE's projected to be better than Scaife and cost a lot less than 4.5mil/yr. There are also better RB's that can be had...perhaps in rnds 3 or 4. And Gage is a solid WR but nothing special in terms of the league. Optimistically, let's say you gave each a late 3rd rnd value...that would get you pick (in value) in the bottom 10 of rnd 2...not at the top. And frankly, that might be too generous.

And in looking at it from a Detroit's perspective...why would they want to sign LenDale to a long term deal? Scaife is a nice guy but he's gonna cost some money to keep. And Detroit doesn't need Gage. Rebuilding teams don't wanna spend a lot of money on unproven players, backups and guys they don't need.

I think we COULD work out a deal for their top of the third pick...especially if he wants a player like Harper who we probably wouldn't mind getting rid of.

I like Gilbert, but he's a boom or bust player. I don't see him being a good DE because he's just not that quick for a DE. His combo of quick/power/athleticism at DT is nice, but he's inconsistent and is not elite at any one of those things. I'd rather get Brace who I know what I'm getting...a big run plugger who's gonna make Bulluck and Tulloch's lives a LOT easier and will be rotated out on passing downs. I thought the Titans plan B for DT in free agency should have been Bernard, Canty, or Grady Jackson. We could have had Jackson easily but not the other 2. Oh well...

The Titans have had less success drafting DT's late than other positions (OL, CB, WR).

Mack is my sleeper pick for the Titans. I think he's probably better than Mawae right now and cutting Mawae would save us a nice chunk of cap. I think Mack or Unger could also play OG. So we COULD let Mawae walk and play the best 2 out of Harris, Amano and a draftee. Munchak has done a lot of great things with less talented players. When we give him players with excellent raw talent...he turns them into Pro Bowlers!

Giants are loaded at DE and don't typically take LB's that high. Maybe as a TE, but I think the Giants will look for a big WR. Pitt doesn't typically draft LB's that high. I COULD see NE taking him...especially if they drop down a bit.

Gut

 

Cutting Mawae would only save $2.5 million.He's still a great Centre and only struggles against the very best DT's. I don't think we play against any dominant DT's in the coming season.

Surely his experience is worth $2.5mill.

 

Well, Scaife could be had easily for two years since he is tagged, but they would clearly have to want him first and be interested in working out a long-term deal. Detroit has nothing tied up in RB for the moment, so extending White probably wouldn't be a big problem, either.

But considering the bust rate and all, a 3 player for 1 pick trade enables the Lions to fill more positions quickly and still infuse plenty of new talent. I think part of it is getting as competitive as quickly as possible for them so they can sell more tickets and merchandise. The Titans had a great season, and if I was strategizing with Detroit, I would be open to bringing on board as many exciting parts of that pie as I could in order to get the fan base open to spending the money.

So yes, I hear you about the long-term value, but guys are brought in all the time for the sole purpose of getting things going. Besides, Gage, White and Ball together probably aren't more than $4M in salaries combined. Pretty good for the return you get out of them. I think that's value to a rebuilding team, even for only a year or two.

 

I could say I thought about offering Jake Scott/Ball/Gage to get the thing going, but I didn't feel like reshaping the mock, which will happen a bunch anyway. Besides, I wouldn't want our line to take a step back. I probably undervalue Scott, but I always got the feeling he was a little p.o.'d about not getting more money. IIRC, he turned us down, then came back when no one offered more. That's probably made me feel a little bit like someone else might fit better. But it's a thought I've had.

 

If Scott was traded, I wonder if Mack could play guard for a year until Mawae retired.