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Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Nov 13, 2006.
No it shows he has a clue and puts thought into what he writes.
i still think its too much time for all that thought
I can see how it would give you a headache.
its alot to read too, but if hes a fast typer it wouldnt take that long, but knowing me i have to sit and think sometimes about things like that
I look at both total and YPC to determine a good run game. Maybe I'm just a lowly fan. I hear coaches, even our own, talking about YPC....so maybe it is more than just a fan stat.
Sure looked like you were saying we'd run a lot and therefor wouldn't throw a lot, and therefor wouldn't need a true #1. I gave you two examples that show that running a lot and having a #1 with big production can go hand in hand.
VY has 176 yards. Vick of course has a whole lot. Plummer has 92. Jax has 135. McNabb has 212. Alex Smith has 101. Yes, other teams above us would also be hurt if you took away their QB yards. But I don't see how you can totally discount what the QB gets in rush yards.
I don't see how anything points to us having a very bad rushing game. With TH in the lineup and the new o-line, who else sees a very bad run game?
1st you said a good team needs a strong D and running game. You can go to profootballreference.com and see teams that didn't have good run games yet went to the SB and/or won it. NE, PHI, TB, were not good, and several other teams were just average.
I don't expect to go to the SB next year. Maybe 2-4 years away. I hope VY to be similar to McNair during our run. I'd assume most of our young line will be intact, and I'd probably try to find another guy or two to groom. CJ would be well past the rookie learning curve. And of course as I've said before, we'd have to build the D too, but not being a good D is not all on the players. We don't have a great scheme, and a good O can help a D. Ours has in the past.
One more time...
First, YPC is not a completely useless stat, but I gave you the most meaningful stat already. If you take out VY's rushing numbers, we're about 25th in the league in rushing. How do you 'write that off?'
You can't compare total rushing yards of QB's to VY since he's had fewer starts so his avg is higher per start. You need to subtract his avg yds per game from the team's total. If you do that with a guy like Plummer...who maybe has 92 in 10 games...that's a 9.2 yd avg. While that is a chunk, it is nowhere near as big as VY's 201yds in 7 starts. That's just about 29yards per game. Subtract that from our rushing yds per game and you'll see we're about 25th or 26th. BTW, McNabb has rushed for 212yds in 10 games for a 21.2 avg yds per game. The rushing difference between our 2 teams is 4 yards per game. But when you subtract out the QB's, they go from rushing less yards per game to more than us. Vick has rushed for about 700 yards in 10 games or a 70 yard avg per game. Subtract that out and they go from #1 rushing team to about top 3rd...but they're still pretty good. AND, they don't drop below us. Again, we end up about 25th....no if's and's or but's.
As for you showing me a strong run game with a #1 WR WITH big production...my argument is that our #1 WR WON'T get big production without VY throwing the ball nearly twice as much. I've already laid the numbers out showing you that in a best case scenario, we won't get BIG TIME production out of a #1 WR next year...even WITH VY throwing it more, a CJ being what we think he is, and VY improving significantly. I see no argument to dispute this.
Good young teams are built to run the ball and have a strong D. Why? So you don't have to rely on the offense scoring a lot, you can keep the score close which gives you a chance to win in the end. You also limit turnovers (a huge stat in terms of winning and losing) and control the clock (also very important in terms of winning and losing). This is how Fisher developed the first generation of Ten Titans into a dominant football team.
Yes, there are teams that have gotten to the Super Bowl with mediocre run games and even suspect defenses, but I'm interested in WINNING a Superbowl, not just getting there. Been there, done that.
As for the teams you mentioned, the Eagles lost even though they had a stellar D, the Pats have a Hall of Fame QB and a GREAT defense (and coaching), a TB had a great D, a very experienced QB but the largest coaching advantage we've ever seen. Notice that these teams didn't win with an avg D, avg run game and a very young QB. In fact, the Steelers are our best example for how to win the Super Bowl with a very young QB.
Strong run game, stellar D, very good OL, strong RB, #1 WR, good young franchise QB.
Weak run game, bad defense, avg OL, strong RB, #2 WR, good young franchise QB.
If you take ther #1 WR now, you'll score more points, pay handsomely for less than stellar production from your #1 WR (since we DON'T want VY throwing the ball 40 times a game), but still lose a lot of games. As we've seen, VY...even with only #2 type WR's can march us down the field in crunch time for a game-winning score. What we need is to build up the OL and the defense and THEN add the offensive player. Building up the D and run game get us more wins overnight. It's more cost effective and a better strategy all things being equal.
As far as the D, I dislike our scheme and REALLY dislike our DC. We will NEVER get to the Super Bowl with Schwartz. He simply can't coach. I think we have a lot more talent on D than we're getting production wise, but we still need a dominant pass rusher no matter how you slice it.
Gut, you're really splitting hairs here, and you've got some fuzzy math. We're #19 w/o VY stats, not 25th. And just from a glance, we'd be higher than a few teams if you take out their QB yards, and within a few yards of many teams near the middle.
It may not mean much to you, but if you take out VY's yards, our ypc is top 10.
You still haven't said anything about the fact that the changed line is better and Henry in place of Brown is better. Those 1st few games with a different lineup probably hurt our stats....just like using VY's rushing stats added on to our total.
I still don't see a very bad rushing game. That by using stats, my eyes, and the facts of our lineup changes.
As far as the #1 wr not getting the ball enough, there's no way to know that....on top of me not being able to make much sense of your calculations. We'll try to run the ball and control the clock. We've done that before, not had a very high # of passes, and had a Pro Bowl type #1 WR.
Of course VY has to improve his passing, and that's something we have to assume will happen. And again, a guy that you can almost just throw the ball up to and he'll get it, like CJ, will make VY look a whole lot better. He's not throwing to a very good group now.
Good teams are built to run the ball? Like the Pats? Tampa Bay? They did win it all with avg run games.
Balty, Indy, and Chi have very average (to below average) run games this year, and are among the best teams. The D is most important, but running the ball is not as important. But as I've already said, I think this is a good run game....certainly good enough to be compared to NE and TB. It looks better to me, w/ or w/o adding VY's yards.
My only concern is that I want to see this steady pace of the run game for the rest of the year. I think it's doubtful that the run game will go to ****. If it does, then I'll worry.
I do think we need more D peices, but I still fail to see how that applies to CJ. I don't just take defensive player just because I want to build the D before the O. If CJ is a better player than any D guy we can get, we should take him if we don't get great trade down offers.
If another Juius Peppers was coming out, I'd take him over CJ even if both players were rated equally and we needed both a #1 WR and a great pass rusher. But I don't see that player.
Just one question.......What has hurt us more this year?
Not having a great receiver when our QB is completing 47% of his passes?
Or the opposing team's QB dropping back, standing in the pocket for 5 - 10 seconds and then throwing it over Lamont's head?
I'd love for us to address D in FA, but so far I don't know of any great DE or S that'll be FAs. I think if CJ is better than the best DE or S, take him. But if they're graded even, we've gotta go defense. I've only got one number to back that up. Our defensive ranking, 32.
As for O-line, we need to bring in guys to train for the future, but the line we have now has played well, and they should be alright for next year. We can take care of O-line in the late 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.
Are there no any receivers other than CJ? What about Jarrett or Steve Smith from USC. (How could you go wrong with Steve Smith lol). Ted Ginn is one. Or later on Jarrett Hicks from Texas Tech. Just something to think about.
Dang, we're starting this stuff early.
Johnny Lee Higgins is a semi-sleeper to watch for. I believe he leads the Div 1 in receiving. Not very big, but supposed to be very fast with good hands. Hope that's true, because good hands is something that should be high priority (no more Ty Cals).
3-Victor Abiamiri-Notre Dame
5-Quentin Moses-Georgia(way too inconsistent)
2-DeMarcus"Tank" Tyler-NC State
1-Marcus McCauley-Fresno St.
5b-Tom Zbikowski-Notre Dame
3-Levi Brown-Penn State
5-Joe Staley-Central Michigan
3-Josh Beekman-Boston College