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Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Nov 13, 2006.

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  1. Bobo

    Bobo Guest

    Their run game really wasn't always dominant. Neither was ours of course. Yet still the #1 WR's got #1 numbers. So what's the point I'm missing?

    We're #12 in rushing now, not bad at all.

    I would rather have a great D than a great WR. The point here is who will be available for our likely pick, and who is worth it. If there's nobody on the D side of the ball that grades out close to CJ, then I wouldn't pass if we can't trade out. I may not even try to trade out.

    An offense can help the D too.
    #51
  2. Architect

    Architect Pain Train

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    Nobody is addressing the need for a Center. Mawae has about another year left and we need an apprentice asap!
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  3. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Ghost...

    What's a long time? A couple of years? Fitzgerald's only been in the league 3 years. Is CJ better than him?

    Gut
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  4. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Really?

    Really??? Outside of 2003, there rushing attack has been no worse than top 10 and a few years it's been first and top 5. I'd say that's pretty dominant!

    Meanwhile, our 12th ranking is decieving because it includes about over 25 yards per game by Vince Young. Take out his rushing numbers (to compare him to other teams without a rushing QB) and we rank about 26th. Not bad at all?

    A draft pick is a commodity. CJ won't help our team as much as certain combinations of players (in a trade down) or a dominant DE. However, if our available options (less dominant DE and not equal trade value in a trade down scenario) are not as good or better than taking CJ, then we SHOULD take him (and assuming his speed and measureables check out). But ideally, we'll be able to get a dominant pass rusher or a combination of defensive players or defensive and offensive players that will be more valueable than CJ.

    You'll notice for the most part the best teams have strong running attacks and a strong defense. We have neither and CJ isn't going to help either that much...at least not with VY in only his 2nd year. Do you want VY throwing the ball 40 times a game?

    BTW, he's currently avg'ing 1 INT in every 21 pass attempts.

    Gut
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  5. GoT

    GoT Strength and Honor Tip Jar Donor

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    true, but take out his one bad game and it looks a lot better. 5 INTs in 139 throws for 1 pick per 28 attempts which is almost twice better than his teammate kerrycollins and his 1 INT every 15 quacking tosses.
    #55
  6. Bobo

    Bobo Guest


    I look at YPC too when talking about a teams rushing, not just total yards. They were average a few years at that, but their philosophy is to pound the ball, so they'll rack up the yards.

    Were we dominant too when Mason was getting his yards and catches? No, but we stuck to our philosophy to pound the ball too....and we won a lot....and we had a true #1 with Pro Bowl numbers. Yes, we can run the ball and have a big time WR all on the same O.

    I figured you'd bring up VY's yards. They do count, and I believe teams are respecting his ability to run. If you take away VY's yards, our YPC is still at mid pack. We started the year with a worse line, and we're missing our best blocking TE.

    If you take away QB yards from all the teams above us in rushing yards, half the teams #'s would be hurt similarly to ours.

    So no, when looking at the whole picture, I don't think our run game is bad. It's average to slightly above average. Even the stats bear that out.

    If any DE that I'd watched looked like a better football player than CJ, I'd be all for him. Woodly and Adams have looked good to me, but not as good as CJ. It's still early, and things could change after it's all said and done. CJ may not even declare. And as usual, I'll probably see a nice trade down scenario....but the usual thing the last 2 years has been to wish for that, but not get it.

    I know how strong D's are important, I want that again ABOVE anything else. But who has won the most recent SB's? Teams with good D's? Sure. But good run games? Most of them haven't had that.

    I don't want VY throwing 40 times a game, and I think a decent run game will keep that from happening. He hasn't thrown near that much on average so far, even on a bad team.

    I entirely expect VY to play better in his 2nd year, we all know rookies normally have lots of mistakes. If he has a true #1 WR, watch those #'s look a lot better.
    #56
  7. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Starter

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    Gut- How much of our defensive woes are related to personnel as compared to scheme? I get sick of the idea that we have to have a defense full of top draft picks to be productive. It seems like we should be able to scheme better to hide our weaknesses. I'm not sold that just getting better players is going to make that much difference without a change in coaching philosophy.

    You talk about the cost of getting a stud DE on the FA market, but the cost really isn't going to be that different from the price we pay a top 5 pick.

    My main argument for CJ is that we need a playmaker for VY to mature with and their are no playmakers to be found in FA.

    My philosophy on picking high in the draft is to always try to trade down, but if you can't then you have to take the guy that is least likely to be a total bust. And in my mind CJ is that right now.
    #57
  8. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    GoT

    I understand what you're saying, but these are his stats. He doesn't get to undo his worst stats nor do I get to take out the stats of his best game to make my point. They are what they are.

    He'd still avg 1.5 INT's a game if he threw it 40 times at your rate.

    Frankly, we'll have a better 'read' on his stats when the season's over when we'll have a bigger sample and see if he's progressing over his earlier games.

    Gut
    #58
  9. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Bobo...

    Are you defining good vs avg by YPC or total rush yds?

    YPC is a 'fan' stat. A more important stat is carries or total yards. YPC doesn't take into account score. You could be losing a lot but have high YPC because a lot of the time you're rushing the ball the defense is playing back and playing the pass.

    Did anyone say you couldn't have a good running game and a #1 WR? We were a dominant running team when Eddie was in his prime and Mason was a slot WR getting 15 catches a year. The evolution occured in our Super Bowl year. But did we take Mason in the top 5 or in the 5th round?

    This is simply NOT true. I didn't look through EVERY QB, but I looked at about 15-20 starting QB's and they avg from -yards to about 2-3 yds per game. I saw 2 QB's with about 6yd avg's. I'm sure Vick also has big numbers, but VY's 25+ yds per game avg drops us to approximately 25 or 26th in the league. Unless of course you're basing your numbers purely on YPC...in which case I've already explained how this doesn't account for score. This is even more misleading considering our very poor record.

    The only stat that bears this out is YPC. All other rushing stats point to us being very bad!

    How many recent teams have won the Super Bowl without a good run game and a QB with less than 4 yrs experience? Do we have ANYWHERE near that level of D? If not, then we NEED a better run game cause VY isn't gonna turn into Peyton Manning next year.

    Of course his numbers would be better with a #1 WR, but that IS NOT the point. The TEAM will be better with different players and that will translate into more wins....THAT is the point.

    Gut
    #59
  10. wow u have way too much time on ur hand if u can write all of that
    #60
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