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Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Nov 13, 2006.

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  1. titansfan9

    titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    and they say that Larry Fitzgerald is a bigger Jerry Rice- pretty high comparison, and CJ and Fitz's personality is similar...
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  2. titansfan9

    titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    I agree, he reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald a lot, and Fitzgerald reminded people of Jerry Rice- Jerry Rice ran a 4.6, but he did every thing else great, and if a WR has perfect route running over 4.2 40, a corner has more trouble with the route running- just the facts-

    Calvin Johnson:

    BEST CASE SCENERIO: A bigger, faster Jerry Rice

    MID CASE SCENERIO: Keyshawn Johnson

    WORST CASE SCENERIO: Plaxico Burress

    LIKELY CASE SCENERIO: Larry Fitzgerald

    OTHER COMPARISON: Terrell Owens
    #32
  3. titansfan9

    titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    but there is no dominat DE in this draft, there is Gaines Adams who has some Shawn Merriman like qualities, but he is very inconsistant- and will probably be drafted in top 5 because of his potential...
    #33
  4. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Starter

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    Gut your example about comparing guys taken top ten to guys taken later can be said of just about any position. Historically LT and QB have a lower bust rate than most other positions when drafted in the top 10. Fortunately we don't need either of those positions. So we have to look at who is BPA, who has the least likelyhood of busting given his college performance, off-field issues, and pre-draft workouts. I also think you have to consider longevity in your choice because WRs tend to have longer careers then RBs and so if my choice is between Peterson and Johnson with all else being equal then I go Johnson.

    Their is no arguing that the Titans don't have a #1WR. Their also will not be a #1WR available via FA this yr. So if we want to give ourselves the best chance at acquiring a #1 WR to be Vince's go to guy then it is going to have to come via the draft or a trade.

    Another point you mentioned peaked my interest and that was concerning Mike Williams. The guy is obviously done in Detroit. So I'm sure we could trade for him if we wanted. Do you think that Chow could find a way to motivate him and put him to use. At least MW catches the ball which Troupe seems to find difficult.
    #34
  5. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Ok...

    The shotgun approach to arguing is not effective...so we'll address your points.

    First, let's assume CJ is the next Larry Fitzgerald AND he can duplicate what Fitz did in his best year...

    103 receptions for 1409 yds and 10 TD's. Great, right?

    BUT...that is based on throwing the ball 42 times a game (on average). We won't do that. In fact, Vince Young is avg'ing about 23 ATTEMPTS per game. This means already CJ's production would be nearly HALF or what Fitzgerald's numbers would be...so we'd be looking at maybe 55 catches for 775 yards and maybe 6 TD's. Of course, you could then make the argument that WITH CJ, we'd throw more. I'd disagree because that is not how Fisher builds teams and not how most successful young teams are built. Usually you develop the D and running game while your rookie QB learns so he doesn't have to carry the whole load. This is how you get to win a Super Bowl with a young Ben Roethlisberger. Coaches also do it this way to LIMIT INT's from inexperienced QB's. The more we throw it, the more INT's VY will throw and turnovers have a more direct correlation to winning and losing than passing TD's.

    But let's say you're right and they let Vince throw it 30 times a game instead of 23. Even then his production would only be 75% (say 76 catches for 1000 yards and 7 TD's). Sounding better...BUT...Vince didn't complete 63% of his passes like the Cards did. He's completing less than 50% right now. That's a 13% drop. Assuming VY improves significantly next season and can complete 55% of his passes, that's still about an 8% drop in completions (and stats).

    That leaves us with 70 catches for 920 yds and 6 td's. Is this what you'd be happy with from a top 5 pick at WR? And keep in mind, this is just about best case scenario short of VY turning into Peyton Manning throwing the ball and Chow becoming Mike Martz in calling passing plays. There is also the very real possibility that CJ doesn't produce on the level of Larry Fitzgerald's BEST year, VY may not make as much improvement in his completion percentage and we're unlikely to reach 30 passing attempts a game in VY's second season. So I'd expect the above numbers to be even LOWER.

    While the numbers would increase over time as VY develops into a good passer, we'd be spending a ton of money for the above production during CJ's first couple of seasons. That money can be better spent on a position that will have a greater impact over the next 2 years...then we can draft a big time WR when VY is ready for a breakout season.

    So if CJ is heads and tails above everyone else we can take and there is no great pass rushing DE or other position of need, then yes, we probably should take him, but his results will be less than expected by most people.

    As for your other 'points'....

    No, I don't think Reggie Ball is as good as VY. Is Reggie Ball playing against NFL caliber defenses? Is CJ?

    A WR who can adjust to a poorly thrown ball doesn't gurantee you'll make it on an NFL roster nor does it gurantee stardom. Mike Williams made spectacular catch after spectacular catch. How's his NFL career so far?

    Every year there are GREAT college WR's who can't make it in the NFL....the first reason is lack of speed. Name me one WR playing in the NFL who runs only 4.8? There are NONE. Speed is an important factor. Not the only one, but it's important...especially at WR/CB.

    Where was Derrick Mason drafted? Where was Wayne Chrebet drafted (same college as Colston)? Where was Laveranus Coles drafted? How about Mike Furrey? There are plenty of example of productive to excellent WR's taken outside of the 2nd rnd. And frankly, Bennett is a good #2 WR and where was he drafted? These guys aren't gonna be Randy Moss as rookies, but who is? And there are NUMEROUS examples of 'top' wr's that bust big in the first rnd...more recently.

    And for the limited production we'd get out of a CJ right now, we'd be better off finding a dominant pass rusher (if there is one) or trading down to get more high quality draft picks so perhaps we could get a dominant S AND the best OG in the draft. I'd rather have a dominant DE, OG, FS or CB (if we fire schwartz and go mostly man coverage) before grabbing CJ. That could change if his workouts are unbelieveable (and we'll just have to deal with less production in the short term to insure we have his talent when VY blossoms in a few of years), but that's the rationale behind the statement.

    Greg
    #35
  6. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Come on...

    First off, we don't know what CJ runs so we don't know if he'll be faster than 4.6 or not. Most draftniks guesstimate that he has 4.50-4.55 speed. This is a guesstimate...certainly not fact and we'll find out on his pro day. Til then, it's pointless to compare him to guys who ran in the 4.3's or 4.4's.

    Everyone WR's upside is a faster Jerry Rice. Funny how no one comes close. Probably because no WR's have that combo of Hall of Fame HC, new innovative offensive passing attack, excellent OL, 2 Hall of Fame QB's throwing him the ball and a great WR to play opposite him. Add in Jerry Rice's awesome talent and you have the greatest WR to play.

    More realistically, CJ's upside is probably that of Larry Fitzgerald (if he's that fast). But are you getting a Larry Fitzgerald or a Mike Williams or a Charles Rogers?

    Gut
    #36
  7. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    well...

    Everyone is inconsistent to a point. Even the great CJ was held to almost no yards in one of his games and he wasn't exactly playing against the Patriots D.

    But you're right, there doesn't appear to be a dominant pass rusher at the moment. Much will be revealed at the combine, based on who is in the draft, colle all star games, and the Senior Bowl as well as Pro Day workouts. I personally like the Senior Bowl and Senior Bowl week cause you get to see the top seniors practice and play against each other.

    While Merriman was considered a top DE prospect, he was a bit inconsistent in college too and NO ONE projected him to be one of the best defensive players in the game. Sometimes, the potential shines. Look at Kearse (in his first couple of years...not now).

    Gut

    #37
  8. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    One thing to think about is what impact a top WR has when he isn't catching the football. Would he stretch the field giving more opportunities to other receivers and the running game? Would he command a double-team which also impacts other receivers and the running game.

    I'm not on the CJ bandwagon. I won't begin to look at the draft until February. But there is much more to the value of a top WR than receiving yards.
    #38
  9. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Ummm...

    Well, you also need to consider the money involved. Busting QB's take a bigger bite out of your salary cap.

    But OL are usually the safest picks for several reasons. If a dominant college LT can't play LT in the pros, maybe he can still dominate at RT. Or move him inside to LG...then RG...then OC. You have multiple opportunities to still get (at worst) a productive player. If a top 5 QB busts...it's bye bye.

    But be that as it may, I don't like taking RB's in the first rnd UNLESS they are a Marshall Faulk or LT. I might take a Larry Johnson around where he was taken...mid-late first, but that's about it because of the talent/production/longevity/difference in talent issues. It's a lot easier to find a productive RB almost anywhere in the draft if you have a great OL. However, if you have a great RB, he may not be great behind a BAD OL. Just look at the Edge!

    And since we have LenDale White and should keep either Henry or Brown (unless we sign a better RB in free agency), I wouldn't take another one in the top 3 rnds.

    I agree that our best chance of aquiring a #1 WR for next year is through the draft, but my argument is that we don't need a true #1 WR yet. Not when our defense is LAST and our OL can't consistenly open holes for the running game....the two BIGGEST factors in taking pressure off a rookie QB. We need to build up our D and OL first - all things being equal. However, if CJ is hands down the best player on the board, I would consider trading down (equal value) to get 2 picks to fix holes...or take CJ if I couldn't get equal value.

    Gut

    #39
  10. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Tj...

    Good points...but...

    This is something to look at when you have balance or if CJ had deep speed. If he only runs a 4.5, you won't find too many teams feeling like they need to double him unless he shows he can kill them. But even if they rotate their coverage that way instead of to Bennett's side, that won't help the run game block the DT they can't move out of the hole. However, if you have a dominant running game and the D needs 8 guys to stop it, NOW you put the D in a serious bind cause you can't double it's difficult to double an outside WR with a FS playing down the middle. Shift the safety to CJ's side for instance and the other half of the filed has no deep help. This is when it makes a huge difference.

    It is also possible that he becomes the main go to guy and that it could drastically improve our 3rd down conversion percentage.

    It's also possible he busts. We'll be able to make a better guesstimate after he works out and we see how fast he really is (and big).

    Gut
    #40
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