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Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, Nov 13, 2006.

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  1. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Starter

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    I agree that VY won't be the most accurate passer in the league and that is why I think he needs Calvin Johnson. He needs a big receiver that can go up and get the ball out of his frame. A guy that can keep a CB off the ball with his body. WR is a position that takes time to transition in the NFL and also requires a bunch of time to build chemistry. Get VY his go to guy and let them learn together.

    I agree that we need to work to build a dominate run game, but as has been pointed out you don't draft RT or OG early in the 1st. If we end up picking mid first then I think we will be in a great position to grab an impact safety or get a guy like Blalock from Texas who can play RT or OG.

    I'm not very excited about the DE prospects in the draft. I'd look for a FA.

    I'm always a fan of trading down if possible and if CJ isn't on the board when we pick then I try my hardest to trade down.

    If Branch comes out and we trade Haynesworth then he might be a decent top 10 DT to grab.
    #21
  2. or hows about we trade up to get cj? not a good idea but we would get him, and i dont really see any amazing DE in this draft, for safety tho i like michael griffin and he hits hard
    #22
  3. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Every year...

    Someone wants to 'dispel' the 40 time as meaningless....mostly players (because it can knock them out of the draft) and agents because it costs them a lot of money.

    Understand it's use. It's not there to say NO player slower than this # can't play. It's used in combination with other tests to determine athletic ability. Is it taken to an extreme? In some cases...yes. I think it's a lot less important for a QB...but even then there are exceptions both in the fastest QB's and the slowest ones. The fastest ones can get a 'second' chance by being great athletes cause they can still be drafted and make the transition to another position (Hines Ward, Randle El, ect). It also can mean a potential superstar (VY, Vick, McNabb) with players who can both run and throw.

    But as with everything, you have to have the proper context.

    Let's take your WR example....Mike Williams and Boldin. First, Williams didn't run a fast 40...only about a 4.5. This tells you 2 things....he's not gonna simply outrun an NFL CB in a footrace and there are LB's who are faster than he is. Second, he'll have to rely on his route running, cutting ability, hands, body control, ect to earn his paycheck. If one or two of those things breaks down, he's got little chance to be a top NFL player.

    And that's REALLY what we're talking about here. Using stats to 'guesstimate' how good a player is gonna be. There are ALWAYS players who defy logic, but they are extremely rare and far between.

    I don't think Williams is a good fit in Detroit because Martz's system puts a premium on speed to stretch zones vertically and horizontally. He MIGHT benefit from a change of scenery.

    As far as Boldin is concerned, there were gasps when people found out how slow he ran BUT that wasn't close to the fastest 40 he's ever run before the draft AND his game tape showed his speed. He wasn't a big guy with a CB wrapped all over him who had to outbody and outjump a CB. He was blowing by people A LOT!!! If a team ONLY went by that 40 time, they'd be nuts!

    But to make this simpler...please list the top 10 WR's who ran a BEST of 4.60 or slower 40 BEFORE the draft. Then list the top 10 WR's in the NFL and see if any of the names are the same. If the names aren't the same, then obviously speed has SOMETHING to do with production as an NFL WR.

    If this is too difficult, try and list 10 WR's even STARTING in the NFL who ran 4.60 as their slowest time before the draft? If this is difficult, it should tell you something.

    Of course football speed is better than clock speed, but a 4.65 guy doesn't get 4.3 speed by putting on the pads. He can still be very successful...and perhaps even become the best player at your position...but the likelihood is horrendously stacked against you.

    Don't believe me? For every Jerry Rice, there's easily 50 WR's who are good and can play (and have good-great college careers) but can't make it in the NFL because they're simply too slow and the rest of their abilities don't make up for it.

    Plus, built into the 40 is a measure of your acceleration (which is arguably more important). A slow 40 time usually means slow acceleration and that spells doom most of the time.

    It's a harsh reality, but just think of it like the SAT's. SAT's don't tell anyone how smart you are nor do they tell you how successful you'll be in life. What they do is tell colleges who's the MOST likely to graduate from a 4 yr university/college. Period, end of story. Similarly, 40 times tell us who's more likely to succeed in the NFL.

    Gut
    #23
  4. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Ghost...

    Here's a little question for you...

    What level of production do you think justifies picking a WR in the top 5? Write those numbers down and then go look at the WR's drafted in the top 5 the last 4 years and see how many of them lived up to your expectations. Now take a look at the WR's drafted after the top 10 and see if there is better production amongst them. Point is, you're just as likely to grab a great WR in another area of rnd 1 or even rnd 2.

    So WHY on earth would we trade UP to get CJ?

    Colston is currently leading the NFL in yards as a ROOKIE. Wanna guess where he went in the draft?

    Point made.

    Gut

    #24
  5. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    all i know is when i see calvin johnson in the open field, he usually goes a long way. that's good enough for me.
    #25
  6. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    most guys drafted in the top five get by on their unbelievale athletic abiliy and are not refined in their route running ability or their understanding of the offense they play in. that gets you by in college, it wont in the nfl. i think ted ginn falls in that category.

    calvin runs very good routes and has the best hands in college. he also has the uncoachable things like good speed(not fantastic speed) and great jumping ability. he also has extremely good concentration on the ball.

    calvin has the intangibles to be a great WR, when a lot of the guy drafted in the top five are fantastic athletes playing football instead of fantastic football players.
    #26
  7. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    First of all, your first post is excellent. We see that mindset tossed around all the time, even by so called "experts" and coaches. The forty yard dash means something. Otherwise, why would they do it? It's only a valuable metric for people who understand HOW to interpret it (ie how it translates to the field).

    But... your logic, as it applies to CJ, is completely whack. So you're saying that WR's shouldn't be drafted in the top 5 simply because other teams (bad teams mind you) have made poor choices (mostly teams with a track record of bad choices... ie the worst 5 teams in the league). Furthermore, those receivers usually come into a situation where they are on a bad team with bad habits. Maybe this is the same reason why coaches try to keep highly drafted qb's off the field their first year? Maybe they fail because the worst 5 teams in the league usually draft by need more so than good teams. Who knows?

    Point being, you have to evaluate the players and go by that alone, not what has happened in the past. CJ, at worst, will still be a large body that can go after the ball and rarely drops a pass. With proper coaching, he can be an excellent route runner (if you don't consider him to already be). IF he does end up to have good-great speed (anything sub 4.5 for someone his size I'd say), he could potentially be one of the top receivers in the game. Then there are intangibles like character (yea, we don't care about that) and work ethic. Both areas that the people on the inside say he excels in.

    I don't see how you pass on a top tier WR with the only reason being that other teams have made bad choices in similar situations as you. Just make a good choice and none of that matters.
    #27
  8. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    My point...

    Thanks for the compliment on my first post.

    As for the second...

    I'm not saying that Calvin Johnson isn't a great college WR...he is. However, I need to see numbers on him (like his 10 yd, 20 shuffle, 40 yd, ect) before I anoint him a can't miss top 5 pick. If he runs a sub 4.5 then he WILL be a top 5-7 pick depending on what juniors come out.

    My point about production is two fold. First, we'll have a 2nd year QB who's not gonna put the ball up 30 times a game so our new rookie phenom WR will not make the desired impact of let's say 80 catches for 1000+ yds and 10 TD's. So even if you may a GREAT pick, the player is not likely to make the desired impact for a minimum of 2 years. That's not to say he won't help, but not enough as taking an equivalent player at a more important position.

    Secondly, there has been a shocking number of top 10 WR's who aren't cutting it...not only as top 10 picks...but not even as decent starters. So until we see some numbers on him...he's a question mark. And even then, he might still be one considering the Charles Rogers of the draft.

    To clarify...
    Shawn Merriman nearly singlehandidly turned the SD D into a powerhouse. Calvin Johnson CAN'T do that for our offense...the positions are not equivalent.

    This is why I suggest we find a dominant pass rusher. Now here's where the Titans need to make a tough call...

    If you draft a dominant pass rusher, there is no guarantee he'll be a dominant pass rusher in the NFL. However, if you do get one, he's cheaper than signing a dominant free agent (who commands one of the top 4 salaries by position). The good thing about signing the free agent stud is that you KNOW what you're getting. So do you overspend to get the sure thing or gamble a bit more for a cheaper/younger alternative. That can only be answered in part by what's available in free agency and who comes out in the draft.

    But this is the year the Titans need to make some big moves...both in the draft and in free agency.

    Gut

    #28
  9. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    dont compare him to charles rogers. rogers failed a drug test before the draft then was suspended for four games last year for failing another one. add that to the amount of collarbone injuries he suffered and you have bust written all over him.

    there wasnt anything wrong with rogers' physical ability. he couldnt control the injuries, but he brought things upon himself with the drugs. CJ is a good kid, hard worker and a good teammate.

    two completely different animals.
    #29
  10. DeutschTitan

    DeutschTitan Camp Fodder

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    One thing I'd like explained to me is this nonsense of CJ not going to produce because Vince can't throw accurately or throw period(which is bullhockey). Who is throwing the ball to CJ right now? Reggie Ball...and you think he's better than Vince? I've seen way to many highlight reels of CJ catches where he's had to grab behind him or adjust drastically to the ball. So are you telling me Reggie Ball is a better QB than Vince? Please....if anything I just made a strong case for CJ to be drafted, regardless of 40 time, cone shuffle, locamotive out running, whatever those rediculous drills are.

    and please! stop bringing up Colston. Okay, we get it..he was drafted in the 7th rnd and is doing great. But that's rare you find talent like that beyond the first two rounds. I mean, we drafted 3 WR's in rnds 3 and 4 respectively in 2005 and what have they done? Only one has somewhat impressed and thats BJones and he still hasn't done much or stayed healthy for that matter.
    #30
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