Barwin ran a 4.47 at Cincinnati's Pro Day

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by GLinks, Mar 25, 2009.

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  1. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    Of course LW scored more points...we run run run the ball into the endzone while a team like the Chargers predominantly passes it (though LW's 11 TD's for a RB with fewer than 300 carries isn't exactly bad). How many of LW's 15 TD's did he need to run over 3 guys to get in? It's not the total number he scored, but how many were scored because it was HIM running it vs a 4th rnd backup RB doing the same job?

    I think the Chargers are crazy for paying 12mil to their top 2 RB's...but the FACT that tagging Sproles at more money than LT was gonna make caused a huge problem. You're suggesting we do the same thing? that's one issue.

    NO WAY would I draft a RB in rnd 1-3 with the idea of keeping CJ, LW and this player...just because the total cap hit isn't crazy. The REAL problem is sitting 2 high draft picks on the bench at the same time. That's wasted talent that will continue to be wasted. In the meantime, while we have - say 2 2nd rnd picks as backup to CJ sitting the bench - we could have a 4th and 6th rnd DE's trying to start and keep our front four dominant? I'd rather have a 4th or 6th rnd rb as my 3rd rb and a 2nd rnd DE competing for a starting job. Our D is built around a dominant front 4. Our O isn't built around a 2nd or 3rd string RB. That's the second issue.

    3rd issue is...what happens 3 years from now when CJ (at his current pace) is gonna want to break the bank for his contract. Sorry, we can't, we gave LW 4mil a year and can't cut him or we'll take a 4mil cap hit. Oops!

    Think about this. Is LW a better #2 RB than Sproles? Where was White drafted vs where was Sproles drafted?

    And how did White do as a fulltime starter? 1100yds and 7 TD's and a meager 3.7 ypc with 5 fumbles? Ward had better stats than that as a BACKUP! There are numerous examples of mid-late rnd picks being good backups and performing quite well when forced into 'leading' roles. I just don't think LW gives you the bang for the talent buck!

    Gut
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  2. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Here's a few questions...

    It's our offensive philosophy to run before (and a lot more often than) throwing it. You can't compare Scaife to White. Did Scaife have the ball thrown at him 216 times?

    Nothing in this game is guaranteed. But the Titans would expect to let White walk (and he most certainly will) because they aren't gonna overpay him...at least I hope they don't. And let's face it, suppose White gets into the best shape of his life and he runs wild this year and both CJ and White have 1200yds and they both have 10 TD's. You think White is gonna play for 4mil and wanna stay when he could get 7-8 and start full time?

    White is not a late rnd pick who will be happy to jump from 250k to 4mil/yr. And WHY would White wanna stay here if we're giving him a backup rb's contract bust even then, it's mostly incentives and weight clauses???

    I'm not sure how a team could be MORE focused on CJ than the Ravens and several other team's late in the season. Did that make a difference? NOPE! :)

    Gut
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  3. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    White would be jumping from $530,000 to $4M.

    He's not going to have a 1200 yard season.

    Derrick Ward had a better season and settled for $3M.

    I said White had plenty more carries.

    Yes, it made a difference in the Ravens game. No one got CJ on the ground before and successfully took him out. That's what I'm talking about there will be more of.

    I didn't say pay White when there would be a conflict with CJ's 2nd contract. You have to manage it, ups and downs. But in order to remain a top 5 unit, we're not going to get by on nickle and diming for the next four years and suddenly pay CJ. Either White will get some money for 2-3 more years, or we'll pay/develop someone to do it.

    Look at this way: Even if LenDale got a very hypothetical $4M/year for 3 years and we let him go and gave CJ the deal we knew he would deserve to start his 5th year, LenDale would have cost exactly $14.91M over 7 years. If he produced somewhere between last year or the year before for the next three years, he would still average $2.13M a year over seven years. No one can tell me in all fairness that LenDale is not worth that in a backup capacity given his production over the last two years. And Bo Scaife is worth the $4 and two-thirds million dollar franchise tag? No thanks. Not to me.
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  4. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    Actually,Ward is gonna get 4.625mil per year for his first 2 years.

    No one tackled him before? What do you mean got him on the ground? He unfortunately had players land on his ankle several times. Not intentional...just the way it went. It's not something the D did. But as I said, no one stopped him when they certainly were trying to.

    White is NOT going to sign a 3 year deal for 4mil a year. A RB's career isn't that long so he'll want to show he can start next year and get paid. And he'll want a 6 yr deal for starter money...not a 3 year deal at expensive backup money. So he'll be making a lot more than CJ right now even though CJ is the starter and one of the best RB's in the league. This could very well cause an issue with CJ.

    Plus, I think you can find a good backup RB for cheap or get a good backup in rnd 3-5. So why would I pay LenDale 4mil a year?

    And why are you comparing White to a TE? Scaife led our team in receptions. White doesn't even start. I don't think Scaife will play at his tender level. But I digress...

    I think we can agree to disagree.

    Gut
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  5. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    Neither. I do see Barwin as more of a Travis LaBoy type player except LaBoy had 35 reps at 225 (Barwin 21). Would you be as excited if Travis Laboy was the guy we were talking about drafting in the 1st round? I see Barwin as a better fit in a 3-4 anyway. Ayers had a solid 40 for a guy his size but he wasn't particularly impressive in the 3 cone and shuttle which are probably more important than the 40.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. I really believe the DEs we have on the roster already are just as good as either of these guys. Jacob Ford ran a 4.65 40 and his 10 yard split was as fast as Barwin. Ford is about the same size and only had 2 reps fewer at 225. Hayes ran a 4.6 at 270 pounds (faster than Golston) and benched 225 28 times at his pro day. Both of these guys make drafting a DE early unnecessary. I'd rather look for another guy like these guys in the middle rounds or later and use our 1st round pick at another position.

    Of course, as usual, guys who haven't played a single down in the NFL are far superior apparently than guys who have. Wait at least one year and see how these guys develop and how much KVB has left and if we can re-sign (Kearse should be gone). Hayes made a huge jump in competition so he should make a nice jump this year. Ford played darn well for a guy essentially in his first year coming off injury. We should see how he responds this year as well.

    We also might want to see how Jason Jones fairs this year before we freak out and reach for a DT. I would rather seriously consider extending Brown to keep him around and see how Haye and Vickerson hold up. Maybe get a DT as a value pick somewhere besides the 1st unless a stud is on the board.
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  6. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    LaBoy type? I think you're selling him short. LaBoy wasn't as good of an athlete and we knew what we were getting with Laboy. I thought Laboy was a 2nd rnd player since I didn't think he had much more upside. Barwin has a lot more upside at a few positions but is a bit unknown how good he will be. A cross between Vrabel and KVB but more raw....but more athletic.

    In my experience...4.6 is good, 4.7 is decent, 4.8 is slow, and 4.9 speed is a 2 down MLB or a pass rushing DT. 4.90 is bad for a DE unless he's 295lbs.

    Um, why do you think Golston went in rnd 1 and our two guys went late in the draft if they have similar attributes??? Because you don't play the game running 40 yds in a straight line, or lifting 225lb weights, ect. Small school projects might have the same athleticism, but usually aren't as good players. If they were, they'd likely have gone higher than they did. If you have Vernon Gholston athleticism and play in a weak division and don't absolutely rip it up...that's a problem.

    Gholston ran a 4.58 40 at 266lbs at his pro day. How is Hayes faster?

    Both Ford and Hayes have the potential to be good players...but the likelihood is they won't. There is a fair chance neither sticks in which case we'd be in real trouble at DE.

    Gut
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  7. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    First of all LaBoy IS a comparable athlete to Barwin. His 3 cones, shuttles and 40 were all similar as was his size and LaBoy benched 35 times. Imagining Barwin is a better athlete is fantasy.

    Secondly, I'm not a fan of Ayers in teh first round and said so (I thought).

    Thirdly, I'm sorry on the comment about Golston. You are right. He does beat Hayes in a 40 yard race by 0.02 seconds (daaaaaa). Hayes does weigh 4 pounds more....
    The point is Ford and Hayes both have comparable measurables to Barwin, Golston, Ayers, LaBoy or whoever and this fantasy land of picking Barwin because he is a superior athlete is ridiculous.

    I agree Barwin's 11 sacks in college is impressive. Ford's 7 sacks in part time duty in the NFL is impressive as well.
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  8. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Huh?

    Perhaps you're not aware that Barwin hit a 4.47 40 in his pro day. LaBoy was about 4.69. Here's a comparison...Barwin's in bold.

    Laboy
    10yds = 1.60 (1.53est)
    20yds = 2.70 (2.58est)
    40yds = 4.69 (4.47)
    bench = 35reps (23reps)
    vertical = 35 1/2 (40 1/2)
    broad jump = 10' 06" (10' 08")
    20yd shuttle = 4.07 (4.18)
    3 cone = 7.01 (6.87)

    Barwin is vastly superior in his 40, vertical, and significantly better in the cone. LaBoy was definitely stronger and had an impressive shuttle...but the 40, vertical, and cone of Barwin are in the elite range for a 256lb player. LaBoy's numbers are in the above average range except vertical which was avg. So you have one guy with elite speed (40), elite lower body explosiveness (vertical) and elite change of direction (cone drill)....and the other with above average measureables for the most part. Not the same athlete in my book.

    .03...but who's counting? And I'm not sure Hayes is 272lbs. He was listed at 260lbs before his senior year...then it was reported he was 272lbs during Wake's Pro Day...but then when he gets drafted everyone has him listed at 260lbs again. By the way...Hayes benched 28 times to Gholston's 37 and Hayes' 33 1/2" vert is blown away by Gholston's 42". We know Gholston is a legit 6'3 compared to Hayes who's barely over 6'1 (not good for a DE) and his production dwarfs Hayes...and Hayes played in a MUCH easier division.

    So Gholston is also a better athlete and has had much better production ON the field against much better competition. Of course there is a chance that Ford and Hayes become Pro Bowl players...but the odds of either of them becoming even a good starter is remote. I am hopeful, but also realistic.

    Barwin also outproduced Hayes even though Barwin only played DE that year whereas Hayes was a 5th yr senior. I like Ford, but it's hard to compare his athleticism outside of his 40 since he didn't do much else. Again, his 40 is in the 4.65 range at 249lbs.

    Why do you think the titans chose Andre Woolfolk...Tyrone Calico? Superior triangle numbers. The difference for Barwin is that even as raw as he could be, he STILL put up 11 sacks! So he has significant upside when he learns how to play the position.

    Barwin also didn't have another 10 sack DE opposite him nor the best DT in college football playing on his DL next to him. Don't take that the wrong way...I actually like Ford and Hayes...but they are works in project and I'm hoping for the best...but odds are neither becomes a force at DE. Kearse is old and if KVB has another 12 sacks season, he my price his way out of Tenn leaving us with...no serious threat at DE...let alone 2!

    Make no mistake, I understand Barwin is no sure thing. But he has put up elite athletic skills for a 256lb DE. Find me a DE who weighs 250 or more with a Barwin's athleticism (4.4 40, 40+ vertical, sub 7.0 cone) and production in college (10+ sacks) and you're likely looking at a sure fire first rnd pick.

    Gut
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  9. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    Hey waitaminute...there was a guy like that once....

    Anyway, I say Barwin is a good mix of Kearse and KVB. 80% of Kearse's athleticism, most of KVB's motor (and then maybe the head of Peter Sirmon). Two perfect mentors for Barwin for a year.
    #49
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