Barwin ran a 4.47 at Cincinnati's Pro Day

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by GLinks, Mar 25, 2009.

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  1. Smart***Titan

    Smart***Titan Camp Fodder

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    Sorry... I meant to say a 3-4 OLB, but I still say he is too much of a tweener for a first rounder in our scheme.

    And a 4.47 is not "a 4.47". That's my point, most of these times are found in articles taken from local papers, who use the fastest time they can find, even if every other scout in attendance had a player clocked at a slower time.

    Again I like him, but I wouldn't take him in the first round... too many other players who would be a much better value, even with our low first rounder.
    #11
  2. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/


    You're right about the value. I was thinking we moved up a decent amount in '05 using a 4th rounder, but it was us who moved down to get Roos, trading with Detroit for their 4th or 5th.

    I would still say Ball is worth a little more than an average mid-late round pick, especially to Scwartz. Hurting Ball is his back, but since he's inexpensive anyway, had 4.5 sacks (2 years ago, pretty average guys were getting multi-million $ deals for the same thing) and can play DT on 3rd down. You're right, though, it would take more than that. Here's a real offer then:


    Sign Holt.


    Trade Gage, Ball and LenDale to Detroit for #33 (I'd maybe ask for #97 or, more realistic, #129, but whatever). There's 3 potential starters for Schwartz right there.

    I'd then trade Scaife and #62 (and even #129 if we got it) to Kansas City for Tony Gonzalez.


    Holt/Washington/Hawkins

    Gonzalez/Crumpler/Stevens

    Then on to the draft:


    #30 - Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC
    #33 - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
    #94 - Frantz Joseph, ILB, Florida Atlantic
    #130 - Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty
    #135 - Quan Cosby, WR, Texas
    #173 - Sherrod Martin, S, Troy
    #203 - Khalif Mitchell, DT, East Carolina
    #206 - Bruce Johnson, CB, Miami
    #239 - Cedric Dockery, OG, Texas
    #242 - Darius Hill, TE, Ball St.
    #12
  3. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    Keep in mind, Ball is past his athletic prime at 29. He's played in 36 games and has a grand total of 4.5 sacks...all last season playing next to Albert Haynesworth. He is NOT a starting caliber player and combined with his back problems...you'd be lucky to get ANY value for him.

    Let's be generous and say Gage is worth a late 3 and White is worth the same (though he'd be worth less since he's on a one year contract, will want a lot more money and a starting job). You're still not even in rnd 2...let alone pick #33.

    Works in Madden though:)

    Gut
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  4. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    I don't get all the drooling over this guy.

    1st, there is no way we need to use our 1st round pick on a DE/LB who has only played DE for one year and

    2nd, I know a sleeper kid that runs almost as fast of a 40, weighs 270 pounds and fits our 4-3 scheme much better. We can/did draft him in the 4th round last year. His name is William Hayes. Believe me, when this kid gets some experience and coaching, not to mention some off season work he is going to be a beast.
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  5. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    Fact is still only Ford and Hayes are under contract next year. Three DEs are UFAs as are two DTs. That's over half our line. The odds alone of bringing Kyle back are 50-50 at best, though that's much better than the chance we had of signing Al. Without being assured KVB is returning, no one can tell me right now they would be okay going into 2010 with Ford, Hayes, Ball and Kearse. I find it less likely that we are going to wait until next offseason to hunt down a FA and risk paying who knows what. Remember the Titans? We'll draft a DE. Doesn't have to be a high pick, but we'll draft one, even if it's to hide on the PS. Of all our DE, Ball is just the most expendable. I'm sure the coaches love him, but there's just no way he fits into the long-term plans. He's a good back up to have this year, but on the other hand, Ford and Hayes should be further along, and Ball will hopefully not be needed. I'm just saying draft someone who can at least rotate for longer term now and move Ball to a team where he can keep playing. The Lions are the first that come to mind. Despite what he's not done all but last year, teams are going to not ingore 4.5 sacks from the previous year.

    Another way to look at it is the only people under contract next year at DE are our majorly formerly injured 6th round pick and our yet-to-contribute-much 4th round pick. But hey, I'm sure Jevon Kearse would love to stay.

    How do you feel about it now?
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  6. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    :lol:


    Well, you're getting to my ballpark.

    Pick #33 - 570 pts

    Pick #62 - 270 pts

    Gage - late 3rd; ours? 124 pts; the last one? 116. 270 + 116 = 386.

    Points needed: 114.


    "...and White is worth the same (though he'd be worth less since he's on a one year contract, will want a lot more money and a starting job). "


    Well, that would be 116 points, too, but you say he'd be worth less for the upcoming hassle. I'll balance that by mentioning his TD production, which was the league's best given the number of carries. Fifteen last year, eleven on a 2-year average, seven on a three. You can try to devalue the production all you want, but it speaks for itself. Unlike a potential contract negotiation hassle, the production is not a theoretical. Healthier and in better shape? I've always said White was worth the 2nd round pick (what, 45?). Even as a late 2nd round pick, he was worth it. So now after the production you're going to tell me he's only worth a late third? As if even a third of the players drafted above or below him earned or justified their draft position since. You've got to step out of the down-on-White morass that permeates the board. Even looking back at what a definitive 2nd round pick should amount to on the field, White is that. I'd also say considering the reason he even fell twice as far as he was projected to go (top 15 to 45) he has bounced back and overcome many's expectation. They thought he would bust! That's why everyone passed once on such a top talent, and some twice.

    I was being generous offering White, Gage and Ball, which I see as a 2nd, 3rd and 5th, but believe me when I say I feel White is worth that. Ball we just need to prune and Schwartz could use him, if only for a year. They're going to do a lot of cutting and releasing the next couple of years anyway.
    #16
  7. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    Before we made our first rnd pick last year...did you think we NEEDED to take a RB in rnd 1?

    Barwin could be a player at DE, LB or TE and is super athletic. Last time I checked, we had Bulluck, KVB, Kearse, Scaife, and Crumpler all in the last year of their contracts. He certainly could help somewhere...perhaps more than one spot. And even if drafted as a DE, there is no guarantee Hayes or Ford progresses to the point we can start them and rely on them. We hope they will develop into beasts, but you don't know...even less certainty for mid-late rnd picks.

    I guarantee you we're gonna lose at least 1 DE or LB or TE. Without knowing who's gonna stay, Barwin can cover any of those positions.

    Gut
    #17
  8. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    We're getting closer:)

    Lemme see if I can explain it better.

    Detroit already has their #1 and #2 WR, so Gage may or may not be worth a 3rd when all they need is a slot WR and this draft is LOADED with WR's.

    Let's say Schwartz also likes Ball and is willing to pay good value for him even though he's a perrenial backup, only got sacks when next to arguably the best DT in the league, is not young and has back problems. So 5th rnd pick at best.

    The big problem is White. When we drafted White out of college, he was a first rnd talent with question marks so we take him in rnd2. He supplants Chris Henry but shows up out of shape. He has a decent season, but doesn't look truly dedicated. We think so much of White that we draft a RB in rnd 1 to start over him. His value in a trade has just gone way down. Agin, White doesn't blow the doors of the place showing up in phenom shape to compete for his job. He has a good season as a backup. Now that's he's playing for a contract year...everything is changing. NOW he's dedicated to showing up in great shape. What does that tell you? He wants a big contract and he's only gonna get one as a starter. So in any trade scenario, he WON'T sign an extension unless he's paid as a starter. So now you have to pay him at least 5-6mil/yr for a guy who's started one season and lost his starting job the following season. A guy who's ONLY gonna work his rear off in a contract year. And Detroit already has a decent RB. So I don't see Detroit wanting to sign him long term and pay him starter money for him to be a 50/50 starter even. And if he's not willing to sign long term, then his value as a RB for a single year is MUCH less. Not because he can't play, but because they're getting him for 1 yr whereas the guy we get with the pick is cheaper, better, and will be for 4-5 years.

    This COULD...COULD happen if Schwartz really likes White, is impressed that he's working his tail off for this season and thinks he'll be Brandon Jacobs for the next 6 years. Schwartz has made it clear he too is gonna try to run the Titans system of stopping the run on D and building your offense around the running game. If they could sign White at 4mil/yr so they don't have to worry about RB...it's a possibility but slim in my estimation.

    Detroit can get a vastly better player at #33, none of the players we're offering would be a sure fire starter...so why make the deal if you're Detroit? They need more talent, not depth.

    If you were Detroit, would you make this deal? I wouldn't.

    If they didn't have much at RB, didn't have a #2 WR and were really thin at DE, it would be much more palatable though I still wouldn't want Ball. Taking a DE in the 5th would be more productive, have more upside and cost less that taking Ball in the deal.

    At minimum, with Schwartz really liking Gage and White and being able to work out a long term deal with White, I'd say you're looking at Gage, White and our 3rd. Maybe we get their 5th back...

    Normally I'd say..."Schwartz isn't stupid..."

    But he's done dumber things!

    I think it'd be more realistic and easier to get their 3rd...which is a good spot.

    Gut
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  9. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    Thank you for suggesting Barwin could play LB for us. Much like Johnson potentially filling three spots for us, my argument last year (RB/WR/K or PR), Barwin could do the same, DE/LB/TE and ST. Because he doesn't have the fast twitch like Kearse, but most everything else, I really want to try him at MLB. He could be one that stays on the field all the time. If we went to nickle, I think he could rush on 3rd down. Titans can actually afford to take this chance this year.
    #19
  10. GLinks

    GLinks Second Gear

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    Gut - who is their 2nd WR? Shaun McDonald? 32 catches 332 yards, or FA Mike Furrey, 18 catches 181 yards?

    "We think so much of White that we draft a RB in rnd 1 to start over him. His value in a trade has just gone way down. Agin, White doesn't blow the doors of the place showing up in phenom shape to compete for his job. He has a good season as a backup. Now that's he's playing for a contract year...everything is changing. NOW he's dedicated to showing up in great shape. What does that tell you? He wants a big contract and he's only gonna get one as a starter. So in any trade scenario, he WON'T sign an extension unless he's paid as a starter. So now you have to pay him at least 5-6mil/yr for a guy who's started one season and lost his starting job the following season. A guy who's ONLY gonna work his rear off in a contract year. And Detroit already has a decent RB. So I don't see Detroit wanting to sign him long term and pay him starter money for him to be a 50/50 starter even. And if he's not willing to sign long term, then his value as a RB for a single year is MUCH less. Not because he can't play, but because they're getting him for 1 yr whereas the guy we get with the pick is cheaper, better, and will be for 4-5 years.
    "


    I don't disagree that is could go that way, but I see White a little differently. First, Kevin Smith is pretty good, but he could have done better last year certainly, with a back like White to take some pressure off. Second, I've never heard White say he wanted to be a starter, complain about losing a job (I don't see it that way, either, and I don't think it was positioned that way to him, and I don't think anyone in The Building thinks he lost a job so much as fills a role; I think the Titans wanted the offense to evolve and clearly when they drafted White, didn't plan to stop -- Chris Henry was the one they failed upon) or ask for starter money. He likes comraderie, winning and having fun. I've said even with Johnson, signing White to a 4 or 5 year extension $4, $4.5M per is not a bad idea at all. Especially, to stay in Nashville, I think he would love it.

    LenDale White, my friends, is a Jolly 'Ol Elf.

    "This COULD...COULD happen if Schwartz really likes White, is impressed that he's working his tail off for this season and thinks he'll be Brandon Jacobs for the next 6 years. Schwartz has made it clear he too is gonna try to run the Titans system of stopping the run on D and building your offense around the running game. If they could sign White at 4mil/yr so they don't have to worry about RB...it's a possibility but slim in my estimation."


    Yeah, he's a little like Jacobs, but needs a little motivation, and you definitely want to put another back or two with him. Smith was a third round pick for the Lions, IIRC, so salary here is not prohibitive over the next five years. Brian Calhoun and Evian Cason are the other backs. Give White a deal like that with some performance and workout and weight incentives, with which he will not be able to disagree, because despite it all, the guy from the day he was drafted, wants to prove people wrong. We laugh, but put money on the table in front of him, and he will work to get it. He might be thinking, "That's just more money for food when I retire," but he'll give a team what they want in the meantime.

    But for argument's sake: Titans signed White to a 4-year $2.91M deal as a rookie. 2009 he makes $530,000. Franchise tag this year: $6.62M. Next year at worst, being 20% higher, let's say, which it won't (avg. top 5 RB salaries), it would be $8.828M, the two-year average of which would be just over $4.5M. I'd expect it to be closer to $3.75M, though. The average of RB salaries is cycling down again. At this year's number, over two years, White would cost the Lions $7.15M, or $3.575M on average.

    (And remember that makes White the 3rd player or 2nd most likely player to be franchised behind Bulluck - not very likely, KVB - very likely if an extension isn't worked out. If you were surprised Scaife got franchised this year, don't be if LenDale is if he's still here.)

    We can't undervalue our own players. It's funny, but when people think of the Titans O, they'll think of Collins and Johnson, sure, but probably White, Gage and Scaife a little more, just cause they've been on the field for us longer. I remember a comment (was it the Bears D?) about the Titans WRs? "Them boys can play" or something like that. Well, he only could have been talking about Gage, and maybe Jones, last year. Just to tie back - Gage can play. He's just unsexy. He's an extremely affordable starter under contract for the next three years. Lions will draft a WR later, but Gage would benefit hugely next to Calvin Johnson. That would be a huge opportunity for him.

    Lastly, I'll disagree that White's value decreases. On the contrary, with Johnson here now, White becomes even more valuable to us (and this is the position you argue if you're the Titans). Johnson must be protected. If it was just White, you're left with replacing White. Remove White from the equation and then lose Johnson, it's a much farther falloff.


    Come on, Gut. You're almost home!
    #20
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