A new strategy, trade down!

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by RollTide, Feb 11, 2006.

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  1. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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  2. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    The only thing you've proven the flawed way you pick and choose your stats.

    The Titans pick #3 this draft. Guess how many QBs have been taken in the top three when another QB was been taken with the first two picks?

    Three times. Only three times from '82 to '01 has a second QB been taken in the top three. So your big time bust rate theory is based on three cases in nearly 20 drafts?

    One of those was McNabb. Not too shabby, eh?


    Heath Shuler and Tim Couch were the first QBs chosen within the first three picks in their respective drafts too.

    I hope you keep those smelling salts handy.
  3. PragIdealist

    PragIdealist Guest


    First, its not that the post did not make sense. It is that you did not comprehend it. Thats ok. It doesnt bother me.

    Second, you did use a stat to illustrate Pennington's pass percentage- as you admited. That percentage is a combintation of his accuracy, the recievers ability to catch, the teams they play against, the play that is called, etc, etc. There is no way of knowing from that stat which is the more accurate passer. The only way we can really determine that is if the two of them decided to test it out together with a fair and balanced measure. Otherwise there is not a way to tell who is truly better. That is why this is a team sport. All we can do is make inferences; and inferences almost always come with qualifiers. Qualifiers you choose to ignore to better sell your point.

    Third, saying that with my logic we shouldn't keep score was inflammatory and just odd. That is how a TEAM determines who is better. I'm not saying you can't use quantitative data to determine who is better. I'm saying the quantitative data that is avaliable cannot be used to compare athletes individually. They can be used to compare athletes on a team, but not athletes individually, which is what we want to do for prospects. I'm basically saying that you cannot use stats to say one college prospect is better than another.

    Fourth you asked if you cant use stats to evaluate a propect then how do you evaluate one. That is a good question. You try to break down the abilities that that position needs and evaluate the prospect on each of those abilities. Again, you cant do that with a TEAM stat; you need an individual's stat. Which we dont have. So all we can do is make subjective guesses. Cutler's arm is stonger or weaker than Leinarts, whose is stronger or weaker than Young's. Thats all we can really do. I hope this is clearer for you. :hmm:
  4. Vigsted

    Vigsted Starter

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    Let me add to Prag's great posts that there's a reason why scouts and GM's look at gametape and not just compiles a total statsheet and find whoever's at the top.

    Stats by themselves are meaningless.

    I'm afraid your scientific reasoning wont ever win over RollTide though.
  5. Soxcat

    Soxcat Starter

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    Tide might make a point if we could get a guy like Jacobs in the second and take a guy like Ferguson in the first. Jacobs could end up being a solid NFL QB with Ferguson an all-pro OT. Ferguson certainly is ranked right up there as one of the BPA and on top of that he is possibly the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.
    This is looking to be a fairly strong draft for QBs compared to what I originally thought. There are some QBs that have potential in the second round on to be solid pros. Jacobs is definately the #4 QB in this draft and would be a great value IMO with our 2nd round pick.
  6. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Prag..... visteg..

    Visteg, you tell me what is scientific about anything prag has said. Nothing! he is suggesting that individual stats are meaningless. Walter payton's 16000 yards rushing is no indication that he was a good player.

    Prag, you have only clouded this whole issue. You have not come up with a formula that works better just a bunch of vague variables about nothing. What would this fair and balanced measure be? I have two millionaire QBs come over and throw the ball around the back yard? If you can't come up with anything better your entire post means nothing.

    An nfl passing rating is a statistic of effeciency. Every time a QB throws a pass what is the percentage chance of a certain outcome; what percentage of passes are complete, not complete, what percentage of passes are touchdowns or interceptions and how much yardage is produced per pass. It is the best measure we have of how effective a passer is.

    The points i made are not absolute. I never said we should avoid drafting a QB with the third pick at all costs. I just pointed out that quarterbacks drafted in that situation have not done well. The percentage of busts are high. That is a fact which goes a lot further than a bunch of gobblelygook. You don't even counter with any specifics.

    What is your formula again for determining whether or not a player is a good prospect? I missed that. I read a bunch of nonsense about how his actual performance on the field doesn't matter so what do you have that is better? I have not even used a lot of college stats on this thread. I wrote one post comparing jacob's college stats to leftwich. So what?
  7. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Visteg...

    there's a reason why scouts and GM's look at gametape
    -------------------------------

    This is a discussion thread. We are a bunch of fans who do not have access to every game film for every propect and none of us can hire scouts. I have never posted a single damn thing that would ever suggest not scouting or looking at film. Not one damn thing!

    Particular player stats have had little to do with this entire discussion. Do you know that? I never said we should pass on vince young because his stats were not good enough. I never commented on young's stats at all.

    The difference between me and folks like you is that i put forth the effort to accumulate whatever info i can on the web. I don't have film, i don't have scouts and i don't have the luxury of seeing a personal workout. But i do use what is available to me. Lazy posters just sit on their butts and bash others.

    What do you call this laziness? Scientific reasoning. Yeah right.
  8. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Jeff...

    I agree three is not a big enough sample to draw any conclusions which is why my list had all QBs drafted in the top 10 picks who were the second taken at their position.
    The problem is you are too stuck on this 2nd QB taken thing. My first and primary list simply included ALL QBs taken 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Whether they were the top pick at their postion or not. This sample is 10 draft picks spanning 23 years.

    QBs taken with the 2nd third or 4th picks 1982-2004

    82-Art Schlichter
    86-jim everett
    93-rick mirer
    94 heath shuler
    95-steve mcnair
    98-ryan leaf
    99-donovan mcnabb
    99-Akili smith
    02-joey harrington
    04-phillip rivers

    The list might not be so bad if harrington turns his play around and rivers becomes good. Still some real losers there jeff. More than the good QBs. At this point the only QBs who would QB my team would be mcnabb or mcnair.
  9. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    You seem to be using your "argument" to explain why we shouldn't draft Young. But yet, you are overlooking New Orleans, assuming you know what their decision will be. By your logic, whoever New Orleans' front office (*cough cough* nice crew there) decides to draft is going to be the best qb. Also, by your logic, had Brady Quinn entered this draft and graded out higher than Leinart or Young, that would make them both failures. It would also mean that if he slipped to number 3 or lower, that he is doomed to failure.

    One thing about statistics is that they're only as smart as the person using them. In this case, that would mean they're pretty much worthless I'm afraid. =(
  10. PragIdealist

    PragIdealist Guest


    Dang dude, calm down. By what you're infering I can tell you're not understanding my points and your getting pretty defensive. When you're ready to finish this in a calm, well reasoned argument, I'll be glad to pick it back up. Re-read my posts a couple of more times and they'll make sense. No-worries. We'll all know the outcome soon enough. For now...chill...

    :hmm:
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