A new strategy, trade down!

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by RollTide, Feb 11, 2006.

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  1. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    It's getting more moronic by the minute..

    I never said that we shouldn't draft vince young simply because he was the 2nd choice. Where did i say that? What i'm saying and what i PROVED is that when you take away that top pick, the guys like elway aikman and manning the bust rate soars! Soars! I didn't just talk about the 2nd QB taken i listed every single damn QB taken 2, 3 or 4 since 1982 and quess what? 7 of 10 proven busts!

    Probably the dumbest thing is this notion that lienart and young are equals. Here you have two completely different QBs. One a runner the other a proto-type pocket passer. One played in a pro system identical to the one the titans play. The other played in a college offense that no NFL team plays. One took snaps from the center his whole career the other played shotgun exclusively. So please do not tell me they are interchangable. They are not. You have to like one over the other!

    Lienart won 2 national championships and the heisman with norm chow's offense and that doesn't matter?


    All i'm suggesting here is that there may, may, be better options than just taking vince young. That other players might provide less risk and better value. What's wrong with that? Snap out of your robotic mentality!

    If a proto-type QB like byron leftwich can last intil the 7th pick then don't tell me that young is automatic at the 3rd pick. Leftwich is 6'5 245 lbs and has a much stronger arm than either young or lienart. And there is a leftwich type QB that can be had much later in omar jacobs. Jacobs might turn out to be the best QB in this draft.
  2. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    danny wuerffel won a hiesman trophy and a national championship in a college system people thought would work in the pros too.

    whether chow's system will work in the pros has yet to be seen.
  3. Vigsted

    Vigsted Starter

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    Pointless discussion if you ask me. You can't foretell who is going to end up the better pick based on their college throphies, awards or stats nor can you use simple draft statistics to gauge their future. You have to make a personal decision on who you like the most, who fits your system the best, who has the better chemistry with you and your team and who you think you'll have more success developing.

    This decision will vary from team to team, which is why it is pointless to say one is better than the other, regardless of when they're picked.
  4. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    So you want to trade out of #3 (pass on Young) and take Omar Jacobs?

    If you think the odds for a bust is high for a QB taken in the top five, try the fourth or fifth QB taken in the late-second or third round.
  5. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Big titan...

    whether chow's system will work in the pros has yet to be seen.
    -----------------------------------------

    Huh? The west coast offense has not been proven to be successful? That's what his offense is. With an emphasis on execution and simplicity as opposed to trying to out smart your opponent.

    Danny wuerffel was not a high first rd draft choice. People knew that his arm probably wasn't good enough and that is why he lasted until the 4th rd. Not a good comparison at all. You going to compare carson palmer to wuerffel as well?
  6. Fry

    Fry Hatin' is what I do.

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    i think lienart is a better comparison. neither of them have cannon arms and both had a lot of talent around them on offense.

    people compared palmer to troy aikman. that's the kind of qb i want. people compare matt lienart to chad pennington. i dont want chad pennington. if you want chad pennington, put in a word with the FO, he'll be available in a few weeks.
  7. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    The incredible high risk of drafting a QB in rd 2..

    The real risk is getting into a debate with rolltide. Disagreeing with rolltide is like getting into the ring with tommy hearns; You know the right hand is coming and i'm about to drop it. One could assume that there would be a higher chance of bust for a quarterback taken in rd 2 then at the top of rd one right?

    Surely drafting a QB with the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick in the entire draft is going to reap far superior results than getting a guy in rd 2 right? Wrong!

    From 1982 to 2004 there have been 19 QBs taken in rd 2. Among those 19 were:
    Brett favre
    Randall cunningham
    Boomer esiason
    Jake plummer
    Drew brees



    In addition You had several servicable Qbs who at least were backups somewhere instead of being total busts.

    Kordell stewart
    Jack trudeau
    todd collins
    tony banks
    charlie batch
    shaun king

    8 of the 19 were basically worthless busts, only 42%!!! 7 of the ten QBs drafted with picks 2, 3 or 4 were busts..70%!!!

    In reality it has actually been less risky drafting a QB in this rd than in picks 2, 3 or 4. You are more likely to get a player of some value and even more likely to get a star.


    Now please get jeff some smelling salts.

    Omar jacobs will be the best QB in this draft! Write it down!
  8. PragIdealist

    PragIdealist Guest


    The only problem with your whole argument is that you are trying to back up suppositions with correlations. Correlations depict a relationship but they dont define the relationship. There are too many other factors present on why an individual is drafted when they are drafted to infer judgements on their future success or ability from such a draft position. You are focusing too much on one particular variable. Any prediction needs to be based on multiple variables. Theoretically, the more variables one can put into the prediction the more accurate one can make the prediction.

    In other words, you're putting too much stock in what place previous QB's have been draft.

    :winker:
  9. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Big titan...

    Who is this troy aikman carson palmer guy we can draft? Jay cutler? You are joking right? If cutler had those credentials he would be drafted ahead of lienart or young.

    Lienart=chad pennington? In what way lienart is good? Pennington has one of the highest career passing ratings in the league. The guy has been an exellent player. He is just injury prone and since lienart has not missed a game in 3 years at usc you can't say that about him. A durable chad pennington would be a top 10 QB. What is more is that lienart is probably a better athlete than pennington and lienart is larger at 6'5 while pennington is 6'2.


    Once again we have a poster who doesn't do his homework. You take a guy with a career 92 passing rating and put him up as some poster boy for bust out.:sad2:
  10. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Prag...

    The numbers are not absolute and are not meant to be taken that way but they do prove that you have as good a chance at getting a quality QB in rd 2 as you do in pick 3.

    Hey if you got a better formula then tell us about it; show us the data and then your conclusions from that data. You would be the first poster other than me with real ideas instead of lame arguements against someone with real ideas.
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