Mathmatical misconception on VY

What an ignorant post. So no one can change? No one can grow? "A head case is a head case," always and forever? Does that mean Vick is still secretly killing dogs, T.O. is still questioning the sexuality of his QB, Cutler is still getting wasted nightly in Chicago bars? Is Big Ben using the bye week to assault another girl, since no one in the history of the world is capable of learning from his mistakes?

You hate Vince Young, for whatever reason and that is your right. But you don't get to pretend that the case is closed on this one. Fact is Vince had matured a lot since the '08 Jax fiasco, using all of '08 to grow from the sidelines, and then taking advantage of his renewed opportunity in 2nd half '09 and early '10 season. Unfortunately, the Steelers yanking got to him and signaled that while he had tried very hard to mature, Fisher had not (late to meeting that week or not, you don't yank an established starter who's gone 9-2 over his last 11 to that point...unless you loathe the kid). Vince rebounded though and played brilliantly from that point on, until the re-injury against the Chargers. The rest is history, and largely Vince's fault for blowing up at Fisher (despite all the warranted frustrations, you can't do that).

The truth is, for every incremental step Vince made, he felt Fisher undermined him still, and with a new coach who actually likes him and buys in, none of his further maturity or progress will be stunted, and Vince will thrive.

 

Gay thread. Vince is done, why keep this up?

 

see we can agree on somethings

 

ONLY 3 QB'S IN THE LEAGUE IS COMFORTABLY WELL OVER 500 THE LAST 5 YEARS AGAINST WINNING TEAMS. Peyton, Brady, and Big Ben. Everyone else is batting around 500 or worse. PSSSSSST, we are not going to draft or sign a FA that can do what those three QB's are doing. Hell, Drew Brees is 24-24 vs winning teams and he's probably going to the HOF. Look for yourself below.

Records against winning teams in the last 5 years

Peyton Manning 42-16
Tom Brady 30-12
Ben Rapelisburger 24-19
Mark Sanchez 10-8

Drew Brees 24-24
Philip Rivers 24-24
Matt Ryan 14-14

Donovan McNabb 21-22
Joe Flacco 15-16
Vince Young 13-14

Tony Romo 18-20
Mike Vick 8-9
Brett Favre 19-23

David Garrard 19-25
Eli Manning 23-31

Aaron Rodgers 11-16
Kerry Collins 9-14
Matt Schaub 12-20

Jay Cutler 14-24
Matt Cassel 8-15
Carson Palmer 14-31

AS a bonus here you go with this fun fact.

Fact: In games started and finished by VY the past two years, the Titans are 11-3. Otherwise, they are 3-15.

BOOMED!!!!! I swear we have the dumbest fan base. Philly is in the playoffs with a QB that tortured and killed dogs but our p#ssy fans are crying because our QB told off a losing coach that needed it. Fisher sucks to no end.

 

I wont say the fan base here is dumb. A little too optimistic? Maybe. Putting my feelings for the VY situation aside because that situation is 6 feet under right now, I can say this. What does this fan base have to be optimistic about? Fisher and his pathetic staff should have been out the door right after VY. A decision not being reached yet probably only means that things stay the way they are.

Being a fan for as long as I have I tend to look at the history of the organization rather than hope for things. If history tells us anything its we'll finish somewhere right in the middle if were lucky. Fisher will have someone to blame it on and then we'll rinse and repeat. If the last 10 years haven't sent some kind of a distress signal to Bud, what will? Fisher remains for at least 1 more year. Id be willing to bet be gets an extension. He is a cunning manipulator and knows exactly how to pull his punk card on Bud.

As far as the QB situation. Well right now its probably going to be KFC or Simms. Both have nowhere else to go and both are familiar with the system. McNabb is too mobile for Fisher and wont come to a team that he risks being benched at, which is almost a certainty here. I highly doubt the Eagles give up Kolb. Even if they do, what they will want as compensation will be ludacris. Orton already publically bad mouthed this team and its coach. There's no reason to think he would succeed here because he already dislikes the organization. I think the best shot we have is tanking the season and going for a number 1 pick next year and pray we don't lose CJ. Id rather see this really sorry defense get repaired via this years draft.

 

There are some smart ones, but unfortunately there are way too many that are not.

 

I appreciate all of your mental gymnastics- I really do. But I question your motive and reasoning. I don't find your "mathematics" valid or intimidating in the least especially as it relates to the some of the statements you are making.

First, no member of a team is solely responsible for a team winning. There are an infinite subset of variables in the course of a game that create a sum effect of a win or a loss. One could easily point to (and stratify) games without Albert Haynesworth, Keith Bulluck, Jim Schwartz, the absence of T-Rac, etc. with equal statistical significance. The absence of Vince Young didn't allow the other team to score points.

Second, I don't think many people give a rat's azz about whether Vince did win on the field or how is W-L is stratified across the W-L records of opposing teams. You are loosely using statistical analysis to counter the point that Vince only wins against losing teams and then projecting data from past on to the future predictability. You are engaging in the same type of sloppy math to counter the opposing point that was made using sloppy stratified math.

Third, you model has no validity to predict the future that we will be "worse off" in the near future as far as "wins and losses" without Vince Young.

Fourth- everybody here knows that Vince had talent and potential to be great. Some recognize that it was Vince's emotional lability and immaturity and its failure to progress from year 1 (age 21) to year 5 (age 26) that caused his problems. And let's not forget- he was on the field when he asked out of the Jags game so the "on field" vs. "off field" argument is really moot anyway.

It's pointless to continue to analyze Vince Young. There is no statistically significant exercise in predictability for the future of this franchise. Relax, Fisher will be gone next year if not sooner unless he can take the 2011 squad to the playoffs. And if he does- we should all be pleased.

Let's give the loose math a rest.

 

^so you would be fine with going 9-7, losing in the first round, and fisher getting resigned?

 

I couldn't care less if he was fired tomorrow. This isn't a Vince v Fisher thing with me. If we went 0-7, then won 9 straight but got bumped by a powerhouse in the playoffs, I'd think about re-hiring Fisher for a 2-3 year extension. If we got bumped by a patsy back-in, then no.

Point is I can't speculate with a concrete answer with so many variables. I do think that Bud is going tell Fisher playoffs or hit the road.