People always talk about "Percentage Plays"... Where can I find that data at?

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by World Peace, Oct 26, 2010.

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  1. World Peace

    World Peace Nephew Gunner

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    For example... When I was at the game this past weekend, a fellow titans fan told me that running on 3rd and long is the "percentage play" after I made the comment that we have the most cowardly coach in the league.

    So i pose the two questions...

    Where can I find a website that lists each situation and the percentage corresponding with the basic play.

    Such as:

    1st and 10 conversion success rate sorted by quarter, by size of lead/deficit
    Run: x%
    Pass: x%

    and so on for each scenario.... such as 2nd and short, 3rd and long, 4th and 1 etc etc.

    I tried to obligatory google search but I couldnt find the info I was looking for. I may not have worded the search correctly, but most of what I found was related to sports betting.

    Also, for all of you math gurus... What is the formula used to create these stats? Would it be fair to run these numbers for each coach or for the entire history of the league?

    If running on 3rd and 8 in the first half is a percentage play, then I'll rescind my comment about having the most cowardly coach in the league. I've just always wondered where/what/how these people reference "percentage" plays or if they are just pulling buzzwords out of their rear-ends.
     
    #1 World Peace, Oct 26, 2010
  4. CRUDS

    CRUDS Moderator Staff

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    In the "big book of stuff" right next to dangling prepositions.
     
    #2 CRUDS, Oct 26, 2010
  7. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    The secrets are kept in a mayonnaise jar under Fisher's back porch.

    I think you're asking for the impossible. Each situation differs. I don't see how you could generalize this enough to get anything of value from it.
     
    #3 TitanJeff, Oct 26, 2010
  10. World Peace

    World Peace Nephew Gunner

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    LOOOOOOOOOOL!

    Perhaps I'm asking for alot... and coming up with the actual numbers may be tedious...But isn't there a general guidelines chart? Much like there is for going for 1 or 2 points after a TD. I understand the principle of playing safe on third and long because the last thing you want to do is turn the ball over, but there has to be some guidelines based on +/-EV (Plus or Minus Expected Value) available for people to say that a certain situation is based on percentages. There are so many situations where I feel like the rewards outweigh the risk much like the number the mathematicians at MIT came up with to justify Bellichick going for it on 4th and short in Indy last season. You would think there would be a formula available since they used that same formula to justify that move mathematically, even though it didn't work out.
     
    #4 World Peace, Oct 26, 2010
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  13. Vitharr

    Vitharr Camp Fodder

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    Running on third and long is often aimed at getting the best field position possible on the punt. To either keep the field long for the opposition or to pen them in at their goal line.
     
    #5 Vitharr, Oct 27, 2010
  16. Arcane

    Arcane One Day...

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    If you look at the actual percentages of what the Titans typically do, passing on 3rd and long is the "percentage play". The only time you would want to run on third and long is if you were in a situation like Vitharr said. Of course there are the occasional trick plays and whatnot as well. But running on third and long is not a "percentage play".

    The guy you were talking to has no clue what he was talking about.
     
    #6 Arcane, Oct 27, 2010
  19. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    3rd down percentages..

    3rd and 6 or shorter we have a 52% success rate..

    3rd and 7 or longer we have a 33% success rate.

    So a running play that nets 2 yards is not that bad but getting zero yards or a loss on first down is huge.
     
    #7 RollTide, Oct 27, 2010
  22. memphis_raven

    memphis_raven Starter

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    #8 memphis_raven, Oct 27, 2010
  25. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    I hate to admit this since I'm mostly in agreement with you on how I look at Fisher, but most half decent coaches do run on 3rd & 8. Always have to factor in the field position, and if getting 7-yards gives you a shot at a field goal.
     
    #9 JCBRAVE, Oct 27, 2010
  28. MJTitans

    MJTitans Chris Whitley look him up

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    Yea, sounds like your buddy has a common sports syndrome.

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    Converting on 3rd and long is low-percentage whether you run or pass. Passing comes with the increased risk of a sack or INT since the defense is keying on it, so we often just run the ball. Live to see another drive... and it never hurts to put the ball in CJs hands - how many times have we seen him break an 80 yard TD on 3rd and long?

    Terry McCormick has been doing some great analysis of the Titans formations and play calls. I haven't seen the one from the Eagles game yet, but here is his Jags analysis: http://ten.247sports.com/Article/Breaking-down-the-Titans-play-calls-vs-the-Jags-3606 Definitely worth checking out.

    EDIT: Duh... the Eagles analysis was right at the top: http://ten.247sports.com/Article/Analyzing-the-Titans-play-calls-vs-Eagles-4061
     
    #10 MJTitans, Oct 27, 2010
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