What Needs To Happen (Playoff Scenario Week 16/17)

I'm messing with the playoff generator... here is what I have...

Week 16 needs:
Titans over Chargers
Colts over Jets
Pats over Jags
Eagles over Broncos (from what I can tell if Broncos win this game Titans are eliminated no matter what)

Then it all hinges on Ravens and Steelers:
If Ravens beat Steelers in Wk 16... then Wk 17 Titans win, plus Chiefs over Broncos (if Broncos win Titans can't get in).
If Steelers beat Ravens in Wk 16... then Wk 17 Titans win, plus Raiders over Ravens AND Dolphins over Steelers... OR Chiefs over Broncos AND Raiders over Ravens (also if these two happen AND Dolphins over Steelers then Titans are the 5 seed).

It's all still possible, but the last second Steelers win over Packers last night really hurt the Titans. Steelers would be eliminated already had Packers won. Either way, it's possible. Anything can happen.

 

Doesnt look good for us. But hey, we started off 0-6... not too bad.

 

It would be best if the Ravens beat the Steelers and put them out and Denver gets beat both weeks. The thought of the Steelers making it makes me sick.

 

Playoff generator just choose the winners of games and it will change the teams . It appears the Steelers need to lose one of the final two or Broncos lose out:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffs...algorithm=home

 

The Generator is pretty inaccurate...It has the Dolphins winning the tiebreaker over us even though we just beat them in H2H.

 

Miami will beat the steelers so its better to have more chances.
Okland has won to a much of good teams.
KC has too but since the Broncos are in the same division they always play each other hard.
Besides those weak teams always like to finish the season strong to build up for next year.

 

Here's as accurate as you'll get

Scenario 1

Week 16
Titans win vs Chargers
Eagles win vs Broncos
Ravens win vs Steelers
Patriots win vs Jaguars
Miami win vs Houston
Colts win vs Jets

WC: Broncos 8-7
7. Titans 8-7
8. Dolphins 8-7
Rest Eliminated
Steelers 7-8
Texans 7-8
Jets 7-8
Jaguars 7-8


Week 17
Titans win vs Seahawks
Chiefs win vs Broncos

WC: Tennessee 9-7
Eliminated:
7. Miami 9-7 or 8-8 (Lose Head to Head tiebreaker)
8. Denver 8-8




Scenario 2

Week 16
Titans win vs Chargers
Steelers win vs Ravens
Patriots win vs Jaguars
Miami win vs Houston
Colts win vs Jets

WC: Baltimore 8-7
7. Steelers 8-7
8. Titans 8-7
9. Dolphins 8-7
Rest Eliminated

Week 17
Titans win vs Seahawks
Dolphins win vs Steelers
Raiders win vs Ravens

WC: Tennessee 9-7
Eliminated:
7. Miami 9-7 (Lose Head to Head tiebreaker)
8. Baltimore 8-8
9. Pittsburgh 8-8

FOR US TO GET IN:

-Tennessee Must Win Out (9-7)
-Either Baltimore or Denver must lose out (8-8)
-Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, New York must finish 1-1 at best (8-8)

 

Complimenting the previous post:

Assuming Tennessee wins both remaining games…


Baltimore/Denver

Either Baltimore or Denver MUST lose out. It’s that simple. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh or Oakland, Denver must lose to both Philadelphia and Kansas City. Conversely, if Denver beats Philly or KC, the Ravens must lose to both the Steelers and Raiders.


Jacksonville

Assuming Jacksonville loses to New England, the Jags are done. If they win, the Titans would need the Jags to lose to Cleveland in week 17.


Miami/New York

Assuming the NY Jets lose to Indy, the Jets are done. If they win, the Titans could get help from a Cincinnati victory over New York in week 17. However, the Titans can still beat a tiebreak with a 9-7 NY Jets team if the Dolphins finish 9-7. So, a Miami victory over Houston this week, and a week 17 victory over Pittsburgh would assist the Titans in multiple ways. However, if Miami finishes 8-8 or 7-9, while the Jets finish 9-7, the Titans would be eliminated.


Pittsburgh

This wouldn’t be an issue if the Packers had taken care of business. But now this complicates the situation for the Titans. Obviously, if Pitt loses to Baltimore this week, they are eliminated. However, if Pittsburgh wins, they must lose to Miami in week 17 in order for Tennessee to get in. No matter the situation, it is best for the Titans if the Dolphins beat the Steelers.


Likely Scenarios

Most people can assume the following for week 16: Indy will beat the NY Jets and the Pats will beat Jacksonville. If these games follow through as they should, the situation will be simplified for the Titans.


(1) Assume Baltimore defeats Pittsburgh; Denver defeats Philadelphia. As I explained at the top, either the Ravens or Broncos must lose out. So, under this scenario, the Titans are eliminated.

(2) Assume Baltimore defeats Pittsburgh; Philadelphia defeats Denver. Under this scenario, week 17 will be an easy one for the Titans: hope that Kansas City defeats Denver.

(3) Assume Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore; Denver defeats Philadelphia. In this scenario, Denver will clinch a playoff berth, leaving Baltimore and Pitt tied at 8-7. In week 17, the Titans would need the Ravens to lose to the Raiders and the Steelers lose to the Dolphins.

(4) Assume Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore; Philadelphia defeats Denver. This is the most complex scenario. This situation would leave the Broncos, Steelers, and Ravens all tied at 8-7. In week 17, the Titans would need two of these three results in order to make the playoffs: Denver loses to Kansas City, Pittsburgh loses to Miami, or Baltimore loses to Oakland.


Scenarios 2 and 4 are most favorable for Tennessee. Scenario 2 puts all the Titans hopes on one game in week 17. Scenario 4 gives the Titans an additional backdoor if one of the teams ahead of them wins in week 17.

 

There is actually a scenario where Miami at 9-7 could still hurt us.

If there are 3 teams tied at 9-7 (and Den loses out)
Titans
Ravens
Mia

We would be eliminated. Tiebreaker would leave it between Mia + BAL for the 5th seed because of conference record. Tiebreaks would have to trickle down to strength of victory before MIAMI would finally win the 5th seed.

That would leave us head to head against Bal for the 6th seed and we would lose that because of conference record.

So even if Denver would lose next week the situation could be pretty bleak. Here's why.

If Balt wins against Pitt + Jax loses, Jets and Mia win; the Ravens clinch and Steelers are eliminated.

The following week? If Cincy clinched the division with a win Balt will rest everyone.
Miami meanwhile will get a the bummed out Steelers with nothing to play for while the Fins can still make it with a win.

So the matchups seem to lean to a definite 9-7 draw with the Ravens and Dolphins detailed above.

So best to see Mia lose next week to take out that possibility and just hope the Jets lose one of their last two