Analytics and Football

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Two Kings, May 3, 2016.

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  1. Two Kings

    Two Kings NJ Titan

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    To give a little breather from the draft and all that jazz I stumbled upon this video of a highschool team that NEVER punts on 4th down. Doesn't even have a punter on the team. Always onside kicks after an extra point and works in lateral plays much more frequently.

    Now this is highschool, but I'm curious if things like this will start creeping into college and maybe pro if analytics in football keep increasing in popularity.

    The High School Football Coach Who Never Punts | FiveThirtyEight
     
  2. Wraith

    Wraith Starter

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    The use of analytics leads to some strange ideas, such as winning allowing a team to run rather than the ability to run assisting in being able to win, which is an idea analytics people have put out there that makes absolutely no sense.
     
  3. Roscoes Wetsuit

    Roscoes Wetsuit Pro Bowler

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    I think that has to do less w/ analytics or more so with kids that use to play like assholes on Madden are old enough to coach football teams now.
     
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  4. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Huh? Can you explain what you mean a little more clearly please?
     
  5. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    The use of analytics and to some extent situations (a HS team is gonna keep getting the same caliber athletes year in year out for the most part) force adaption. Some of that adaption will be analytics driven (what can we change based on stats like Pulaski did with not punting, onside kicks, and lateral type plays to get big gainers). the flip side of that is creating a whole new system on offense (West Coast Offense, Run n Shoot, K-gun, etc.). Frequently these things get their start in HS when brand new and get picked up in the college game because smaller colleges who have to play the stacked schools have the same problem as smaller HS's playing much bigger ones. If you run the same schemes and make the same decisions when the other team has bigger, stronger, faster and more talented plays, you SHOULD lose. So change the system, change the playcalling on offense, defense, and special teams and you have an opportunity.

    These things do and don't come in at times but the NFL is like baseball before Moneyball. You have to prove it to them and even then, a lot of old school beliefs get held onto.

    Statistically, the Run and Shoot offense is one of the most prolific and yet no one runs it. Why? Because it became the 'fall guy' for the Oilers losing playoff series when the reality is, their offense did it's job. The Defense didn't and yet they blamed the offense. Just an excuse (like they needed one) to fire the HC.

    Ironically, while no one runs a pure Run n Shoot offense, EVERYONE has stolen from it and incorporates some of the concepts or pass combos into their scheme. So an outsider thinks the run and shoot is long gone but someone who understands it and it's concepts, can see some elements here and there.

    Look at Chip Kelly to see the pressure put on any coach who comes in with a 'college' system. First they get bashed...it'll never work, go back to college...and then it really works well and teams are already stealing concepts from him...even if it's just the tempo of the hurry up. Then Chip messes up the talent on his team (best 2 WR's and one of the best rb's in the league leave or get traded) and his offense suffers....but it's the 'system's' fault, not any lack of talent, right? And Chip may be one of those guys who's a really good or even great coordinator who never will be a great HC.

    Another system (similar to Chip's) is Urban Meyer's offense. He built it in a relatively small college, beat the big dawgs in his division/schedule and then moved up to a bigger/better team. Did the same thing and got another bump up to an Elite program (Florida) before leaving for Ohio State (another top program) and another National Championship. Funny thing is, tons of college teams are running these spread systems.

    When the NFL did it with RG3, Chip Kelly in Philly, Kap in SF, and Wilson in Seattle...it worked extremely well. Wilson continues to be successful with a nice blend of the Spread and an NFL offense, RG3 did great until he got hurt and then was asked to switch to a totally different system, Kelly messed up his team's personell, and Balke got rid of Harbaugh.

    GM's tend to be older school types and are trying to keep their jobs as long as possible so they stay within the accepted 'norms.' The other problem is, they don't really understand the analytics. I remember the Jags analytics guy convinced the Jags to stay with Gabbert another year because of his qb ratings when he got blitzed. The problem was that's it's too small of a sample size and what happened the next year, he got blitzed and got sacked and then the Jags are looking for a starting QB they thought they had. Why I'm not a big fan of PFF who water down the stats as to make them meaningless in a lot of cases. Football is more and more role specific, not just scheme specific and PFF rarely even get that detailed of a look.
     
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  6. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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  7. Wraith

    Wraith Starter

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    A significant portion of analytics people in football believe that being ahead in games allows you to run the ball rather than the ability to run the ball helping you get ahead in games. There are also those that say having an effective defense assists in the ability to run effectively rather than being able to run effectively assisting your defense. I personally think analytics is useless in football because it suggests that you should almost completely abandon the run game because passes average more yards in general without considering what that would do to your offense and defense.
     
  8. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    The problem is, it's not a this or that as all of these things have a synergistic effect. Run the ball better, control the clock. Control the clock and the other team gets fewer possessions per game. If they score X# of points per possession on avg, they should score fewer points with fewer possessions.

    The point is, these are avg's. As avg's, they SHOULD work out. But they are not in a vacuum. One team will run the ball much better against an inferior defense than a great one. So teams - better teams - will adjust their strategy. Take the Pats. They'd rather throw the ball as 'part' of their running game - but stats would call that a pass, right?

    PFF would say something like, the Pats were rated X in pass protection say, # of sacks per passing play. But is a 0 step drop and hitch pass to a WR with a CB playing off really a passing play? Did the LT really have to pass block when GB does this on a run play where the OL is actually run blocking but Rodgers decides to throw a quick hitch? So these numbers and others get skewed.

    That's why real analytics needs to have great detail to have any real meaning.

    And keep in mind, a lot of analytics doesn't take into account strategy that much. So they will say being ahead helps you run more when it SHOULD be the opposite. A team that is ahead will tend to run more and a team behind will tend to pass more. Defenses know this too so a team behind should be trying to stop the run more to FORCE 3rd and long and a team behind should be having to throw against the defenses best pass rush and pass defenders and exotic blitzes. Easier to run when they expect you to throw and easier to pass when they expect you to run. Again, these are avg's and talent and scheme and strategy can change all of this.

    Are teams gonna load up to stop the run game when Tom Brady is the QB and they pass the ball as part of their run game? Not really, so again, these things aren't in a vacuum.

    The biggest thing analytics can do right away is understand stats better than they do. When I hear a team has a top ranked defense, it usually means they gave up fewer yards. You can be a top 10 team in yards given up but a bottom 10 team in POINTS given up. Which do you think is gonna have a bigger impact on you winning or losing a game?
     
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  9. Wraith

    Wraith Starter

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    I agree completely, I was merely clarifying what I was saying are some of the idiotic things people have come up with trying to apply analytics to football
     
  10. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Yes, I figured you were just clarifying what I asked you to clarify. I just thought I'd throw out some of my thoughts on the matter.

    And yes, they don't even know how to apply the stats they've been living with for decades so it's understandable why a lot of teams are overly confused (or don't put much faith in) by new analytics!

    Podesta and Bean are smart guys and it really took a fan of baseball (Bill James) to really get this ball rolling so to speak. Ironic that he wasn't a player or coach in the league and yet figured out these new metrics. I wonder if it will take someone similar to figure out Football's new metrics...
     
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