Projections show Mariota, not Winston, more likely to be elite

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Old Oiler Fan, Apr 20, 2015.

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  1. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Because for young QB's, you want them to pass into easier coverage...say on play action on 1st down than be FORCED to throw into 3rd and LONG's all day. You will have more yards, completions and TD's with the first as well as fewer INT's. With the 2nd, you get fewer good things and more mistakes.

    There is a reason why Russell Wilson is highly efficient while having the fewest passing attempts for a starting QB. He is protected from making too many throws against the defenses best coverages/blitzes.
     
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  2. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    I'm not a huge fan of PFF, but saw this article and thought it interesting to compare....

    Mariota vs. Winston: By the Numbers | ProFootballFocus.com

    I found it interesting that against the blitz they gave Winston a higher grade even though Winston threw 62% complete, 7.9yd avg and 8 TD's vs 9 INTs. Mariota had 69.3% complete, 10.9yd avg and 11 TD's to 2 INT's.

    What I found most disturbing was that Winston turns the ball over vs the blitz and against pressure. Mariota does not. And even when NOT under pressure Winston still doesn't have great TD:INT ratios.

    Perhaps one of the most fascinating things about this article is at the bottom where they show their QB rating for each route they throw. Mariota only had 1 route in which he has a QB rating of less than 92 and that was on a slant with an avg depth of 7yds. For those thinking he only throws dink and dunk passes might find his deeper throws to be of interest as he threw most of his TD's on Post and Go routes. Winston on the other hand, had something like 6 routes in which his qb rating was below 90.

    Thoughts?
     
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  3. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Also found this other stat for Mariota though I don't know who this guy is. It was quoted in a Bleacher report article.

    Marcus Mariota's Deep Ball (16+ yds) Passing Line: 44/72, 61% Comp, 1426 yds, 18 TDs, 1 INT.
    — John Pollard (@JPSTATS) December 4, 2014

    That's a TD rate of 25%!!! So much for he only throws bubble screens...
     
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  4. The Bukafax

    The Bukafax Starter

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    Russel is mediocre as hell. He just has legs to extend plays. Gets plenty wide receivers open this way. So many games I have watched where he gets 30-40 yard bombs by extending the play. Does not mean hes good. Just means the opposing D bites to hard in the middle to stop Marshawn. They give up contain on the edge. Kaep is just a ****tier version of Wilson. He makes poorer decisions.

    Kaep is in for the worst season of his career coming up. Their D may be worse then ours this year. Gore is gone and I don't see Carlos Hyde filling his shoes to keep drives alive like Gore did.

    Wilson was exposed in the SB against the Pats.
     
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  5. J Falk

    J Falk Starter

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    I think you're the one who needs to prepare to be disappointed.
     
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  6. 520

    520 2020 GOAT CHAMP from 3-7 to champ

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    [QUOTwhen they ost: 1327420, member: 768"]Also found this other stat for Mariota though I don't know who this guy is. It was quoted in a Bleacher report article.

    Marcus Mariota's Deep Ball (16+ yds) Passing Line: 44/72, 61% Comp, 1426 yds, 18 TDs, 1 INT.
    — John Pollard (@JPSTATS) December 4, 2014

    That's a TD rate of 25%!!! So much for he only throws bubble screens...[/QUOTE]
    Easy when they wide open.
     
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  7. 520

    520 2020 GOAT CHAMP from 3-7 to champ

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    Google
     
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  8. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    I found the 23% on Mariota. Found it interesting that Peter King thinks this is favorable to Winston because he was sacks a lower percentage, but when you look at what they did under pressure, I like what I get from Mariota and want no part of Winston who's a turnover machine.

    Both QB's have a lower completion % than you'd like (in the low 50's with Mariota a bit higher than Winston) but Mariota didn't turn the ball over, got 3 TD's in 30 completions so 1 in 10 (less than 1 in 20 attempts) and had a fantastic 11+yds per attempt avg. These stats alone are very good except for the aforementioned completion %. However it was better than Winston's AND doesn't take into account the gashing Mariota did on the ground when pressured and scrambled for big yds, td's and first downs.

    Winston's completion % was lower (about 50%), also had 3 TD's but in double the number of attempts (so TD about every 38 attrempts) but 5 INT's (INT every 22 throws) and for 7.6yd avg per attempt.

    So While Mariota got sacked more (and didn't have as good an OL), he didn't turn the ball over and made people pay big time when pressure with big passing and running plays for yds and TD's.

    Winston, even with a better OL, did much worse under pressured though he was sacked about 7 percent less than Mariota. Of course, this doesn't take into account the number of plays Mariota scrambled so his percentage might be much lower of the total plays that started as passes when he was under pressure as the sack % is only for passing results.

    Apparently Peter King doesn't read stats or doesn't understand them in context.

    BTW, can you provide a link to the Mettenberger %? I can not find that while trying several google attempts.
     
  9. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    So Wilson is mediocre even though he performs at an elite level? I agree he's not Aaron Rodgers and needs the kind of team around him to be as successful as he's been, but if he's getting it done in his system, what's wrong with that?

    Warren Moon is a Hall of Fame QB but mostly played in a Run and Shoot system in the NFL. Is he a bad QB because of it? I sure hope your answer is NO!!!

    The problem with Kaep is that they sanchized him and tried to put him in more of a pro offense. They should do what Seattle does and what a lot of teams with young QB's should do. Pound the rock, play good D and have a system designed to play to your QB's strengths.
     
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  10. 520

    520 2020 GOAT CHAMP from 3-7 to champ

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    i googled it couldnt find it. its somehwere on this site, the link, i provided it to jcb before. i dont really care for spending time searching for it...its true...its somewhere around here lol.
     
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